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2025 Investment Thread

Tesla down 10% today. If it's a full correction, they have no business being worth more than 2x of ford, which is about $25.
 
I moved my investments to cash when the market opened in Jan. I figured that the expected "Trump bump" was fully baked in, and couldn't last. More importantly, at my age the downside was just too great for me to stay in tech-heavy equities and EFTs. My broker called to politely ask if I'd gone mad.
By February, the cold calls from boiler rooms had started - you know the end of a bull-run is near when the boiler rooms get the signal to off-load institutional investments to retail shmucks.
Today it's starting to look like I may have got it right.
Is this the start of Wall Street going into the FO phase of FAFO? Or will there be a classic "dead cat bounce" before the real reckoning?
 
OldMadBrit said:
I moved my investments to cash when the market opened in Jan. I figured that the expected "Trump bump" was fully baked in, and couldn't last. More importantly, at my age the downside was just too great for me to stay in tech-heavy equities and EFTs. My broker called to politely ask if I'd gone mad.
By February, the cold calls from boiler rooms had started - you know the end of a bull-run is near when the boiler rooms get the signal to off-load institutional investments to retail shmucks.
Today it's starting to look like I may have got it right.
Is this the start of Wall Street going into the FO phase of FAFO? Or will there be a classic "dead cat bounce" before the real reckoning?
Click to expand...
Smart move. I have been planning to go to a conservative plan, and leave my high risk stocks behind. I waited too late. My stocks are all waaaay down.
 
OldMadBrit said:
I moved my investments to cash when the market opened in Jan. I figured that the expected "Trump bump" was fully baked in, and couldn't last. More importantly, at my age the downside was just too great for me to stay in tech-heavy equities and EFTs. My broker called to politely ask if I'd gone mad.
By February, the cold calls from boiler rooms had started - you know the end of a bull-run is near when the boiler rooms get the signal to off-load institutional investments to retail shmucks.
Today it's starting to look like I may have got it right.
Is this the start of Wall Street going into the FO phase of FAFO? Or will there be a classic "dead cat bounce" before the real reckoning?
Click to expand...
Did that last week for the same reason and as usual my financial advisor was against it.

They would far prefer the workload of everyone holding on forever.

Down almost 5 points since I got out.

My friend said "how do you know when to get back in?"

For me it's all about tariffs being put to rest.
 
Gotta drive it down a bit further so all his buddies can buy the dip. My Google stock is not happy about the anti trust talks, I hesitated and probably shouldn't have.
 
Well he didn't move to ALL cash. And even with the stocks he did sell, he usually doesn't liquidate his entire position in them.

I would also point out that by selling stuff he missed the gains in Jan/Feb. Too early to say if he made the right move. Also let's see if he buys back in at the right time.
 
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If you wait until the tariff issue is put to rest, you'll be too late. The markets are forward looking and incorporate news and adjust predictions quickly.

I'm also less of a Buffett believer these days, his investment style is hard to pull off in the current environment. Information spreads too quickly these days, there isn't enough "diamonds in the rough" that are worth BH's time. Earnings growth is concentrated in the mag7 where he has no edge.
 
N4teTheGreat said:
Gotta drive it down a bit further so all his buddies can buy the dip. My Google stock is not happy about the anti trust talks, I hesitated and probably shouldn't have.
Click to expand...

The DOJ has well overstepped the law in trying to prescribe a breakup of Chrome. Even if the judge agrees, it won't make it through appeal. I think you can read their latest filing in reverse, all loud and blustery which IMO is a sign of weakness - they wouldn't need to talk that way if they felt confident in the claim. I think if you maintain the hold, or even add to the position, you'll be happy in a year or two.
 
I want to hold as much of it as I can, but it's also my source of living expenses until I find my way back into the job market, so it's nice to be able to get the most of of each share when I do need to create some cash
 
N4teTheGreat said:
I want to hold as much of it as I can, but it's also my source of living expenses until I find my way back into the job market, so it's nice to be able to get the most of of each share when I do need to create some cash
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Im suffering some in the same way, about 30% of my compensation is in RSUs, and they're all underwater now.
 
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