• There has been a recent cluster of spammers accessing BARFer accounts and posting spam. To safeguard your account, please consider changing your password. It would be even better to take the additional step of enabling 2 Factor Authentication (2FA) on your BARF account. Read more here.

2025 / 2026 Investment Thread

Costco's silver offerings are currently very near spot. Again, with the double-whammy membership, 4% rebate comes back to you. Net cost now is under spot for me.
 
Blankpage said:
Exactly, a couple of the best performers over the past year were only recently added to the S&P. Sandisk last fall and Micron a few months ago.
Paid off for anyone not focused only on the S&P
Click to expand...
Micron is at the center of the AI bubble debate:

Why Micron Is Feared to Be in a Bubble:
  • Staggering Stock Gains: Shares surged dramatically
  • Cyclical Vulnerability: Historically, memory chips suffer from severe boom-and-bust cycles. Critics argue that peak AI infrastructure spending will eventually lead to an oversupply glut.
  • High Fixed Costs: Manufacturing advanced memory requires immense capital expenditure, leaving Micron exposed to sharp profit compression if demand drops
 
Killroy1999 said:
Micron is at the center of the AI bubble debate:

Why Micron Is Feared to Be in a Bubble:
  • Staggering Stock Gains: Shares surged dramatically
  • Cyclical Vulnerability: Historically, memory chips suffer from severe boom-and-bust cycles. Critics argue that peak AI infrastructure spending will eventually lead to an oversupply glut.
  • High Fixed Costs: Manufacturing advanced memory requires immense capital expenditure, leaving Micron exposed to sharp profit compression if demand drops
Click to expand...

You could do that with any stock list bearish or bullish reasons why it should move in one direction or another.
A decade ago people counted APPL out, stating Samsung and the Chinese were stealing market share. It traded at a pe of just 10 and up 1000% since.
If AI is a bubble there’s a lot more at risk than just the chip makers. So far the data center buildout is mostly US based. There’s still a lot of room to grow when other markets try to catch up. Or the whole thing blows up before then, who knows.
Micron has the latest ASML tech on their side, the Chinese don’t. Plus a ban on Chinese chips in the US. Micron is likely in good shape for a few more quarters.
 
IMO MU is not going down any time soon, and there was very good money to be made selling puts on it for the last few months. I made enough money on it to offset some of my META losses. :LOL:

GPUs require immense amounts of high bandwidth memory (HBM) and MU is literally sold out for years into the future. The contracts are already signed and will be paid regardless of where this whole thing goes.
 
Blankpage said:
You could do that with any stock list bearish or bullish reasons why it should move in one direction or another.
A decade ago people counted APPL out, stating Samsung and the Chinese were stealing market share. It traded at a pe of just 10 and up 1000% since.
If AI is a bubble there’s a lot more at risk than just the chip makers. So far the data center buildout is mostly US based. There’s still a lot of room to grow when other markets try to catch up. Or the whole thing blows up before then, who knows.
Micron has the latest ASML tech on their side, the Chinese don’t. Plus a ban on Chinese chips in the US. Micron is likely in good shape for a few more quarters.
Click to expand...
I think there is going to be a lot of Chinese competition in AI



and

 
Last edited:
And i'll be damned if spcx isn't climbing back up.

I was told long ago by a very close associate of his, "never bet against Elmo"
 
Wha
Caddywumpus said:
They, like basically every big player have had positions since 2008.

Their cost basis is pennies
Click to expand...
What....

Xai which became SpaceX is like 2-3 years old, Nvidia spent 2bill in Oct 2025

No idea where pennies and 2008 global recession your pulling from
 
FXCLM5 said:
Wha

What....

Xai which became SpaceX is like 2-3 years old, Nvidia spent 2bill in Oct 2025

No idea where pennies and 2008 global recession your pulling from
Click to expand...
In 2024, SpaceX's valuation grew dramatically through secondary share sales and tender offers. The company started the year valued at roughly $210 billion in June 2024 ($112 per share), before surging to $350 billion by December 2024.

So since 2024 its 8xd in value... Googles investment goes back almost to the beginning and so does Harvards. This was also pre internal splits to make the stock more palpable to retail.

From what I remember the S1 of SPCX was complete bullshit and their sales will be 12,000 per person per year via their AI in like 10 years.
 
augustiron said:
And i'll be damned if spcx isn't climbing back up.

I was told long ago by a very close associate of his, "never bet against Elmo"
Click to expand...

Is it climbing back up from the dumps? Yes

Does its total gain of 6% since initial offering justify the hype? No
 
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
 
The late Bob Brinker's advice was no more than 4% of any single holding. Is your finance lady interested in new clients by any chance?
 
WoodsChick said:
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
Click to expand...
I think the rule of thumb is 10 percent for one stock but my wife has violated that for decades with Apple and done very well.

It sounds like your adviser is on the ball so talk to her.

You DO want to be more cautious as you get older and portfolio diversification is a good thins.

We are heaviest in Real Estate with 53 percent of our total assets there, 25 percent in stocks, 7 percent in munis and the rest in money market.

I think we are moving some of that money market money to a dividend fund though;; SCHD.
 
WoodsChick said:
How much Nvidia is too much?

First, a note about me…I grew up on welfare and food stamps. I know nothing about money, investing, finance, etc. I read every word of this thread, though, and I just google the terms I don’t know.

Eric and I did well for ourselves as far as pensions, savings, etc. over the course of our careers. We also inherited 1/4 of his father’s portfolio upon his death in late 2021, which he, in turn, had inherited from his parents. He was a lovely man…odd, eccentric, majorly OCD, a poet, total Luddite. No cell phone, no TV, no answering machine. His finance lady would provide options and he’d always say “I’ll think about it,” but he’d never get back to her so she just did what she thought was best. She made him a very wealthy man. She became our finance lady upon his death. I turned over my 401k to her care in late 2022, she converted it to an IRA and it has quadrupled in value.

Anyway, she invested in Nvidia for Pop many years ago and now, of course, it is worth a staggeringly large amount. My concern is, how much is too much, as far as percentage of stock portfolio worth? All this talk about an AI bubble has me concerned. I trust our gal implicitly, but I’d like to hear all y’all’s opinion.

Thank you,
NotAFinanceWizardChick
Click to expand...
I would be taking as much gains as possible from Nvidia now. It's gone up 10x since 2021. I would sell Nvidia and rebalance the portfolio with the proceeds. Not investment advice.
 
Be careful of the potential impact on your tax bracket, and if old enough for Medicare, beware the possible IRMAA implications. Consider the combined impact of those, along with RMA's (again, age-dependent.

I want to dump our Oracle stock because Ellison is such an awful human being, but my decision to do so impacts all of the above. My tax preparer / attorney retired this year, and I need to find and sit down with somebody qualified to walk us through the finer details.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top