Tesla Model 3: End of the Internal-Combustion Engine?

[wazzuFreddo]

EV guys. Do you have to pay at a Tesla supercharged station to juice your car? Or wherever they have the chargers?

I haven't. I've heard the plugs are completely different. As far as I know they won't work on other cars. But then I heard there's a converter. Haven't looked into one.

Tesla cars can charge at the Superchargers for free and there is a SAE J1772 to Tesla adapter available.

However, there is no Tesla to SAE J1772 adapter, and even if there was, charging activation is keyed of the car's VIN so I would SOL if I pulled up to a Supercharger in my Chevy Volt.

 

[sckego]

EV guys. Do you have to pay at a Tesla supercharged station to juice your car? Or wherever they have the chargers?

Superchargers are free. They were initially part of an option package on the smaller battery sizes (standard with the larger battery option), but have since become a standard on all cars (Model S/X). It has not been announced whether access will be standard or optional on Model 3. Elon has also stated any other manufacturers who want to join the supercharger network will be accommodated:

http://www.engadget.com/2014/06/09/tesla-to-share-supercharger-patents/

The intent of the Supercharger network is not to create a walled garden. Any other manufacturer that's interested in using them, we'd be happy to accommodate. It's just that they need to be able to accept the power level of the Superchargers, which is currently 135kW and rising, so any car needs to meet the Supercharger standard. And they'd also need to agree with the business model, which is we don't charge people on a per-charge basis. They'd need to contribute to the capital costs proportional to their fleet's usage of the network. So we think that's pretty fair.

 

[Holeshot]

We can argue all day about whether the specs are any good but the market will actually tell us. 200,000 people so far decided that the specs were good enough for them and their households. I wonder how many of those have ever put a deposit down on a car before.

I strongly suspect that many of the deposit are speculators/ dealers, etc. With no dealer network, regular used and franchise dealers will need something to pull people to their stores.

200,000 people probably already have a car. That'd make two

Truth. I bought a Volt because it had unlimited range. I've learned a ton about what affects range. Very few of Model 3 buyers are going to know how to maximize range, etc and thereby, not get the 200 mile range. I guess they'll get about 140 or so. Most buyers will need to keep their ICE car as well. I'm fortunate enough to have other cars than my Volt, but no way in hell would I only have a pure electric.

Charge times aren't likely to get down to the times we are accustomed to, but range is certain to increase. For me, 350 miles is about the point where I could use an EV for most of what I use a car for without it being a relative inconvenience.

And that range will depend on the weather, driving style, payload, etc, Andy..as you well know. I'm still wondering how everyone in this thread are ignoring the demand EV's are putting and will continue to put on the electric grid. 200K new EV's is a lot on our power grid. Something's got to give (or get more expensive). Might be wise to invest in Calpine...it's cheap now.

Infrastructure is definitely a thing. But this piece of the puzzle is even more of a thing. Because if you're missing it, you won't wake up every morning with a full tank.

The real puzzle piece is that while the American dream is the white picket fence house, 2.5 kids, etc...the real truth is not everyone actually has a house with a garage. Especially here in the Bay Area with the only new construction going on is all apartments/condos.

In order to have a Tesla or anything else that has that big of a battery, you need to have dependable access to L2 charging. If you own a home, then it's easy, just have an electrician come and put it in your garage. But if you're in a situation where you have a carport, communal parking garage, or something like that? Forget it. And I don't call plugging into the charger in the Whole Foods parking lot or hoping you get to use one of the two or three chargers that might be in the company parking lot truly a dependable charging source.

Many bystanders just hear stuff like you can get xxx more range with 20-30 minutes on a supercharger and think that's pretty good. Then you give them the rug pull and tell them that it takes fucking forever and your standard 120v power, and then they start doing the mental grind of thinking where they can plug in to a proper charger amongst their daily life because they are not allowed to (or would even want to) put a L2 charger in their parking space at the $4000/month apartment they're renting.

That. On top of the range anxiety thing. That is why the Model S/3/X (tee hee, grow up Elon), the Bolt, or any other EV is truly going to replace the ICE.

Super, super spot on Rob. We have a few charging units in some of commercial properties. There's no way we could add charging units for people and be cost effective. This is conundrum for apartments too. There is simply very limited way to get some charging into these garages...much less, for every single space. People are in for a big surprise.

Supposedly they will start releasing demographics on Wednesday

I wonder how they get them? I only had to put a name, email address and CC in for my deposit.

 

[ohio]

(edit: Directed at earlier comments about range; not Rob and Berto's discussion of charging infrastructure)

For more than 40 years, the United States has had more 2 car households than 1 car households. I will repeat that another way: most families in the US have two or more cars. I really don't understand where this idea that the Tesla needs to be anyone's only car to be a massive seller.

https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/USAownershipcars.html

It's like claiming cell phones can't be mainstream because they don't have the same coverage as land lines in the US.

 

[Gabe]

(edit: Directed at earlier comments about range; not Rob and Berto's discussion of charging infrastructure)

For more than 40 years, the United States has had more 2 car households than 1 car households. I will repeat that another way: most families in the US have two or more cars. I really don't understand where this idea that the Tesla needs to be anyone's only car to be a massive seller.

https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch6en/conc6en/USAownershipcars.html

It's like claiming cell phones can't be mainstream because they don't have the same coverage as land lines in the US.

I sold cars for a few months some years ago; maybe I can shed some light on this.

People come into car dealers and I think the mentality is that if they're going to spend 5 figures on a thing they'll likely have for 5-10 years, it should offer incredible value and have no drawbacks or limitations at all. It has to do everything--fit 6 passengers, get great mileage, be really comfortable, look awesome and sexy and on and on.

But as people invest more time in the process, they start realizing every car has limitations and drawbacks, and eventually they settle for the thing that best meets their needs and budgets.

So when people casually glance at any EV, the disadvantages are glaring because they don't yet understand the advantages that outweigh the disadvantages. So even though most of the critics here and elsewhere have 2, 3, 4, fuck it, even 20 other vehicles they can get around in, they don't understand why you'd buy a car that doesn't do everything. Hence comments like, "when it has a 500-mile range I'll consider it."

I love the guys with American-made sportscars that cost $60,000 or more to buy new that depreciate to like 15% of their MSRP after 5 years and declare that a $35,000 EV is too expensive and that nobody will buy it. [EDIT--looks like Camaros and Corvettes hold more like 30-50% of the value, so sorry]

Oh, the wait list is now over 300,000 for the model 3...

 

[bpw]

I sold cars for a few months some years ago; maybe I can shed some light on this.

People come into car dealers and I think the mentality is that if they're going to spend 5 figures on a thing they'll likely have for 5-10 years, it should offer incredible value and have no drawbacks or limitations at all. It has to do everything--fit 6 passengers, get great mileage, be really comfortable, look awesome and sexy and on and on.

But as people invest more time in the process, they start realizing every car has limitations and drawbacks, and eventually they settle for the thing that best meets their needs and budgets.

So when people casually glance at any EV, the disadvantages are glaring because they don't yet understand the advantages that outweigh the disadvantages. So even though most of the critics here and elsewhere have 2, 3, 4, fuck it, even 20 other vehicles they can get around in, they don't understand why you'd buy a car that doesn't do everything. Hence comments like, "when it has a 500-mile range I'll consider it."

I love the guys with American-made sportscars that cost $60,000 or more to buy new that depreciate to like 15% of their MSRP after 5 years and declare that a $35,000 EV is too expensive and that nobody will buy it. [EDIT--looks like Camaros and Corvettes hold more like 30-50% of the value, so sorry]

Oh, the wait list is now over 300,000 for the model 3...

We all bought motorcycles because they are so practical and lack limitations.

 

[phocup]

To be fair with that 300k deposit number .. even though I don't much like EV, I do regret not getting there early to put $ down. Seems like an easy way to profit if you can get in the door early to be higher up in the queue. Wonder how many of the original 200k deposit are in that group.

Then the extra 100k could very well be the folks with "sheeple" mentality. Oh .. 200k people want this fancy new thing .. it must be great .. and reviews are great .. I dont want to miss out .. ect.

Would also be very interesting to see a Venn diagram of who the future owners are ( income bracket / demographic ect ) as well as the intended use. Hope Tesla release that data.

 

[tzrider]

So even though most of the critics here and elsewhere have 2, 3, 4, fuck it, even 20 other vehicles they can get around in, they don't understand why you'd buy a car that doesn't do everything. Hence comments like, "when it has a 500-mile range I'll consider it."

What I think you don't understand is that not everyone has a metropolitan lifestyle where charging stations are readily at hand. My situation is fairly unusual, but when I said a 350 mile range was a requirement for me, I meant it. In my world, range is a much bigger compromise than most other limitations a car may have.

I actually really like the Teslas. At this point, any of them are a luxury I can't afford, because they cannot fully replace any of my vehicles.

 

[Holeshot]

(edit: Directed at earlier comments about range; not Rob and Berto's discussion of charging infrastructure)

For more than 40 years, the United States has had more 2 car households than 1 car households. I will repeat that another way: most families in the US have two or more cars. I really don't understand where this idea that the Tesla needs to be anyone's only car to be a massive seller.

Totally agree Marc, except for people in high density areas where multiple cars become a burden for parking, etc. Course those people don't need to go very far, so the range isn't a huge issue, so long as they live/ work in the same area. That being said, most buyers will have at least one ICE.

I sold cars for a few months some years ago; maybe I can shed some light on this.

People come into car dealers and I think the mentality is that if they're going to spend 5 figures on a thing they'll likely have for 5-10 years, it should offer incredible value and have no drawbacks or limitations at all. It has to do everything--fit 6 passengers, get great mileage, be really comfortable, look awesome and sexy and on and on.

Too true...and then after telling you what they want and can afford, they'll purchase the exact opposite for way more.

 

[dagle]

Saw a Model X today. Unfortunately, not a fan of its styling.

 

[CABilly]

What I think you don't understand is that not everyone has a metropolitan lifestyle where charging stations are readily at hand. My situation is fairly unusual, but when I said a 350 mile range was a requirement for me, I meant it. In my world, range is a much bigger compromise than most other limitations a car may have.

I actually really like the Teslas. At this point, any of them are a luxury I can't afford, because they cannot fully replace any of my vehicles.

Ditto. I commute 95 miles to work. 200 miles in perfect conditions is cutting it too close. And all the charging stations I scout out are usually taken.

Also, I've never paid more than 15k for a car. I can't imagine tripling that with the drawbacks accompanying these cars. When the range doubles and the charging gets better, I would love to jump in, though.

A plug-in hybrid still seems like the best bet at this time for people in my position.

 

[nbean16]

Ditto. I commute 95 miles to work. 200 miles in perfect conditions is cutting it too close. And all the charging stations I scout out are usually taken.

Also, I've never paid more than 15k for a car. I can't imagine tripling that with the drawbacks accompanying these cars. When the range doubles and the charging gets better, I would love to jump in, though.

A plug-in hybrid still seems like the best bet at this time for people in my position.

Sorry billy, but according to gabe you have 5 other vehicles and the advantages outweigh the fact that you cant make it to work and back. So cut the crap and get a tesla. Gas will be gone in a couple years.

 

[nbean16]

So when people casually glance at any EV, the disadvantages are glaring because they don't yet understand the advantages that outweigh the disadvantages.

They outweigh them for YOU. Not for for many people. Not sure why thats so crazy to you.

 

[ohio]

I can buy a Honda fit for $16K, and get 33/41 MPG. The $19K I have left over can buy a lot of gas. Why make an up front investment of $35K so that I can save on gas?

Which is why you have a Honda Fit and a CB500F in your garage, right?

 

[TheRobSJ]

Let me just say this again....

Their quality control has to get an awful lot better. I see tons of Model S that have shitty paint, body panels just fit "good enough", and I hear the dealer techs spend their days doing nothing but chasing NVH or catastrophic failures like full drive motor replacement. Once the trendiness of Tesla dies off because there's other players in the 200mi range EV pool, if they still have that many quality issues, they'll quickly lose market share.

Now that they have that many deposits down, and even if as many as 100k back out, they still have an absurd amount of orders to fill. Tesla won't want to keep people waiting too long because that's a dangerous game. The longer you make them wait, the more time you give the competition to put a tempting alternative in front of your customer.

So Tesla will probably rapidly scale up production to maximum capacity to meet the unexpectedly high demand. Strike while the iron is hot right? Problem with this is ramping up the assembly line(s) to breakneck speed leads to QC issues. Then quality standards get lowered because the factory just wants to meet the insane production volume targets that will be set because of the pressure from the backlog of 2+ year old orders.

Seen this over and over again in the car business. Demand exceeds expection, manufacturer cracks the whip and gets factory to produce as many units as they possibly can, quality suffers a lot, brand gets tarnished. Hummer H2, W211 E-class, and more recently the Fiat 500 are all classic examples of this phenomenon. I hope Tesla doesn't repeat history, because they seriously have their whole future riding on a successful rollout of the Model 3. They are nowhere near as big as GM, Daimler AG, or Fiat SpA to absorb a blow to the brand like that.

 

[CABilly]

Let me just say this again....





Now that they have that many deposits down, and even if as many as 100k back out, they still have an absurd amount of orders to fill. Tesla won't want to keep people waiting too long because that's a dangerous game. The longer you make them wait, the more time you give the competition to put a tempting alternative in front of your customer.

So Tesla will probably rapidly scale up production to maximum capacity to meet the unexpectedly high demand. Strike while the iron is hot right? Problem with this is ramping up the assembly line(s) to breakneck speed leads to QC issues. Then quality standards get lowered because the factory just wants to meet the insane production volume targets that will be set because of the pressure from the backlog of 2+ year old orders.

Seen this over and over again in the car business. Demand exceeds expection, manufacturer cracks the whip and gets factory to produce as many units as they possibly can, quality suffers a lot, brand gets tarnished. Hummer H2, W211 E-class, and more recently the Fiat 500 are all classic examples of this phenomenon. I hope Tesla doesn't repeat history, because they seriously have their whole future riding on a successful rollout of the Model 3. They are nowhere near as big as GM, Daimler AG, or Fiat SpA to absorb a blow to the brand like that.

I'll bet that stuff won't matter much. Shitty paint is the industry norm. $50k+ German imports come with orange-peeled paint. Barring catastrophic defects, nothing will happen because customers will be too busy sniffing their own farts out of a champagne flute to notice. If orders take extra months to be filled, that will cause real damage.

 

[explorin]

I'll be burning diesel and gas till there's none left.

Electric is to new. But people are catching on. It's a huge learning curve. People are afraid of new technology. No way I could own a EV as a primary vehicle. Personally fisker had it right. I think we need to concentrate on making efficient hybrids first. Electric as primary drive, gasoline generators to get things going.

 

[Zerox]

This is definitely the most practical electric car anyone has come out with so far, and I am certain electric car sales will go up.

Tesla Model 3 sales orders are at 276,000 in only three days. What makes you think electric car sales are going up?

 

[Yakoo752]

I wonder how they get them? I only had to put a name, email address and CC in for my deposit.

There are a ton of demographics avaialable, if you did it online. If you did it in person they have location.

 

[corndog67]

Ditto. I commute 95 miles to work. 200 miles in perfect conditions is cutting it too close. And all the charging stations I scout out are usually taken.
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Also, I've never paid more than 15k for a car. I can't imagine tripling that with the drawbacks accompanying these cars. When the range doubles and the charging gets better, I would love to jump in, though.

A plug-in hybrid still seems like the best bet at this time for people in my position.

But Billy, everyone that I know in the Healthcare field, has a new Mercedes, New BMW, or new Dodge turbo diesel 1 ton dually.

Time for you to get with the program and sign up for $1000/month payments. Quit being an outlier.