Corona Virus are you ready?

[bikeama]

Interesting interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on Meet the Press this morning. He thinks it is time to go to just one shot for those 65+ to save lives from the coming wave of the UK variant.

[brichter]

Originally Posted by bikeama

Interesting interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on Meet the Press this morning. He thinks it is time to go to just one shot for those 65+ to save lives from the coming wave of the UK variant.

Whatever happened with the high efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine when given 50% first dose? Was that an anomaly?

[Climber]

Originally Posted by brichter

Whatever happened with the high efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine when given 50% first dose? Was that an anomaly?

TBH, I have never trusted Pfizer's efficacy claims ever since they magically jumped up to match Maderna's numbers after stating a smaller number just a few days before.

After working in Biotech it became overwhelmingly obvious that all of Big Pharma's morals and ethics center around maximizing profits. They will lie, cheat and steal to whatever extent they feel they can get away with, and with everything rushed and a ton of corners cut to get the vaccines to market you can absolutely bet that the numbers were fudged. I would bet a lot that those numbers came, pretty much in their entirety out of the marketing department and not the science department.

[DataDan]

Originally Posted by tzrider

I don't see anything that says "total cummulative." Are you referring to the chart ctwo posted?

The chart in question came from here at Worldometers. Elsewhere at the Worldometers site, the term active cases is defined:

By removing deaths and recoveries from total cases, we get "currently infected cases" or "active cases" (cases still awaiting for an outcome).

However, California does not report recoveries. It is not an element found in the "cases" download on the Department of Public Health data page.

Nor do California recoveries appear in the COVID Tracking Project download, though other states do report them.

Thus, the Worldometers "active cases" data for California is estimated somehow.

If there were 1.7 million active cases in California as Worldometers reports, that would be equal to all of the new cases reported since December 12, seven weeks ago.

There have been roughly 400,000 news cases reported in the past two weeks. Presumably, that count is from positive PCR tests. However, since PCR is testing for the presence of a unique COVID viral RNA sequence--not necessarily active virus--and is not a quantitative measure, it is somewhat of a leap to infer the same number of contagious victims.

[Yakoo752]

• The US "only" vaccinated 1 million people yesterday, a number suppressed by the widespread storm. The total vaccinated reached 32.2 million, with 6.2 million Americans now having received two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine;
• Despite yesterday's low numbers, the vaccination pace has quickened in the past two weeks. Early in January, vaccinations only exceeded the original "100 million doses in 100 days" pace a single time; it has done so now on twelve consecutive days;
  
• Model prediction/speculation suggest that the US could reach 60% immunity by the end of May, 70% by early July, and 80% by early August. Public health experts suggest that we could achieve herd immunity somewhere between 60% and 80%. NOTE, this does not take into consideration that kids under 16 can NOT receive a vaccine at this time, approximately 20% of the US population;
  
• New daily cases are free-falling in the US and across the world. The US 7-day rate dropped by more than 40% in the past three weeks; outside the US, this rate declined nearly 25% during this time;
  
• Rates have tumbled in hard-hit Arkansas, California, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia;
  
• Covid-19 hospitalizations plunged across the country: Covid-19 hospital census fell by nearly 50,000 patients in the last four weeks. These patients occupied only 30% of US hospital beds yesterday, compared to 40% earlier in January. Rates hover above 60% in Arizona and New York; above 50% in California, Connecticut, Georgia, and Nevada;
  
• Deaths reported with coronavirus have not budged from the tragically-high levels seen over the last three weeks. These should ease soon, given the drop in new cases detected in January. Model predictions indicate over 4,000 deaths per day throughout the week
  
• Feb 7, Super Bowl, could be our next vector event.

[Climber]

Things are looking up! Finally!

Yeah, the Superbowl could be a spreading event. I personally think that Spring Break could be our next major driver. The potential exists for people to try to make up for a year of being single/restricted/etc and run wild. The stimulus checks could be hitting just in time for booking hotel rooms and flights.

[Yakoo752]

Originally Posted by Climber

Things are looking up! Finally!

Yeah, the Superbowl could be a spreading event. I personally think that Spring Break could be our next major driver. The potential exists for people to try to make up for a year of being single/restricted/etc and run wild. The stimulus checks could be hitting just in time for booking hotel rooms and flights.

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Agree on Spring Break but outdoor spring weather might help mitigate.

[GAJ]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Hoo boy.

Thankfully the weather is decent so folks will be outside.

For the first half!

[Climber]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

Agree on Spring Break but outdoor spring weather might help mitigate.

Agreed, the outdoor nature of many spring break activities might be a saving grace.

But how about hookups in hotel rooms and trying to hook up at bars? There are a ton of people who have been single during the pandemic....

[N4teTheGreat]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

People were lined up buying pony kegs at Total Wine, yesterday.

If I'm buying a pony keg that doesn't mean I'm sharing

It's probably a good thing that I was never good at brewing beer and don't have space to buy a kegerator.

[Yakoo752]

Originally Posted by N4teTheGreat

If I'm buying a pony keg that doesn't mean I'm sharing

It's probably a good thing that I was never good at brewing beer and don't have space to buy a kegerator.

Just because I'm buying a GIANT TV at Costco tomorrow, doesn't mean I am not going to return it in 89 days either...

but they know, you know they know

[brichter]

Originally Posted by Yakoo752

Just because I'm buying a GIANT TV at Costco tomorrow, doesn't mean I am not going to return it in 89 days either...

but they know, you know they know

That's how I got my 65" OLED... bought it for almost $2000 off as an open box returned after SB Sunday.

[Yakoo752]

The burden on US hospitals has tempered in the last month and should diminish further this month:

• Covid-19 patient census dropped by 41,000 in four weeks (31%). Yesterday's census was lower than on any day since November 27;
• The number of ICU and ventilator patients fell by about 25% in the past four weeks;
• Four weeks ago, Arizona, California, and Nevada devoted more than 70% of inpatient beds to Covid-19 patients; As of yesterday, these states cut this to less than 60%; New York committed more than 60% of its beds to Covid-19 patients yesterday, the only state above this rate. For the US, this rate fell to 29%, from 42% four weeks ago;
• Projected hospital admissions plummet during February in every state except Vermont, according to the ensemble forecast published by the CDC yesterday; for the US, projected admissions drop 30% this month.

Vaccinations picked up yesterday, but the impact thus far on immunity remains low:

• The US vaccinated 1.3 million people yesterday; to date, we have administered 32.5 million doses. Nearly 7 million Americans have received two doses;
• While the US is increasing it's 7 day vaccination average (v 1.2M last week) the number of people receiving their second dose is low (300k). This could suggest people are not returning for their second dose. Accuracy in data is still questionable;
• With the lag between vaccination and immunity, only 3% of Americans may have gained immunity via vaccination thus far; Alaska and West Virginia are setting the pace here, with 5.6% and 5% of residents immune via vaccination, respectively.

Estimated immunity is rising across the US, but herd immunity is still months away:

• For the US, estimated immunity is nearing 29%;
• South Dakota leads the country, with estimated immunity reaching 44%; North Dakota is at 40%;
• Estimated immunity exceeds one-in-three residents in Arizona, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin;
• These estimates assume that immunity is sustainable, even as new variants emerge.

Testing for Covid-19 reflects the drop in new infections:

• Test volume dropped each of the past two weeks, receding about 13% in that time;
• The test-positive rate improved, however, dropping by more than 35% in the past three weeks;
• Could these reflect diminishing suspicion of possible infections and fewer Covid-19 like symptoms?

New cases continue falling in the US:

• The 7-day new case rate has declined twenty-two straight days; yesterday's rate was lower than any day since November 12;
• This rate has declined 44% in the past four weeks; during this time, the rate outside the US has fallen 25%;
• Rates have declined in every state since early-January. States hardest hit in early-January - Arizona, Arkansas, California, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia - have made remarkable progress since. South Carolina and Texas now have the highest rates in the country.

Deaths with Covid-19 remain too high but, these may have begun to decline:

• Deaths averaged 3,150 per day over the past week, down 8% week-over-week;
• Deaths should decline further in the coming weeks, reflecting the declining cases over the past three weeks.

[berth]

Thanks so much for your summaries, Yakoo

[N4teTheGreat]

Originally Posted by berth

Thanks so much for your summaries, Yakoo

Agreed, I check this forum every day to see the updates.