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Old 07-13-2020, 11:30 AM   #5761
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WTF happened to the 'anybody who wants to get tested, can get tested' from 3 months ago?
When we consider the source of that remark, we have our answer. It was never true.
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Old 07-13-2020, 12:06 PM   #5762
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Correct in a sense

As demand goes up, restrictions as to who can get the test increase as well. So test positivity rate is only a leading indicator for hospitalization, at best.

Ramped up what? you can take all the tests you want, swabs are still pretty widely available. You still need someone to run the analysis and that's the hang-up.
I think the press and the politicians are getting too hung up on a fluid number like the positivity rate. The press has fully adopted it, but seem to have little understanding of the dynamics that drive it. No big surprise there, the press has become much less of a professional organization over the last several decades.
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Old 07-13-2020, 12:50 PM   #5763
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So, I keep hearing about 'positivity' rate, meaning a higher number of people are testing positive among those tested.

But, talking to my brother, who lives in Tuscon, it's a long, long wait to get tested, then 8-10 days to get the result. So much for getting tested 72 hours before a flight.

I think that as the cases go up, the testing capabilities become less and less capable of keeping up. This probably eliminates a higher percent of the people who aren't experiencing symptoms but want to find out if they have it. This would refine the people actually taking the test more down to the people most likely to have it.

WTF happened to the 'anybody who wants to get tested, can get tested' from 3 months ago?

You'd think that by now they would have gotten their shit together and ramped up sufficiently by this time.

This whole pandemic has been a punchline to a sick joke.

My son in Tucson seconds the testing problem there, but it is no different in the Central Valley, testing by appointments in 5-7 days, 5-7 days for results.

My group provides the only same day testing and next day results between Fresno and Sac for the general public, that I know of. We can do around 400 tests a day between our 4 sites. My son in law drove 40 miles this morning for testing here at my site, arrived at 0530, and was the eleventh patient in line. Almost a majority of our patients don't really need testing. Either the employer unnecessarily requires it, the patients come in too early or too late for detection, they don't have direct exposure or embellish their symptoms. There are still CDC criteria, not followed. We won't turn them away, not after they've waited 5 hours and we've invested 15 minutes in them, and 5 more to turn them away. We're not getting rich on this, we're hopefully keeping the lights on and most of the workers paid. We're the only department in the group working remotely near capacity, beyond actually.

Comprehensive testing was never gonna happen in the US. The tests were originally mostly bogus and came from China. The shortage of swabs and PPE gear was unfixable, not when they come from China. The equipment to run 2000 tests a day costs $100K, and you don't buy it on Ebay if you had the money, which nobody did, and vents were a false priority. Even now, testing still delivers false results in a large number of cases. States run the Public Health ground game, they couldn't come up with the resources for this.

Finally, a population that follows the rules of social disengagement, either voluntarily or through coercion, is the greatest determinant in control of the epidemic, and this is where we ultimately failed.
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Old 07-13-2020, 01:48 PM   #5764
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The failures have big roots in politics.

Unfortunately, too many Stupid People listening to Stupid advice.

Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes.

Read about some Stupid guy in his mid 30's in Texas who attended a covid party where they intentionally try to catch it. He took his last breath a few weeks later.
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Old 07-13-2020, 08:07 PM   #5765
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The failures have big roots in politics.
IMO, politics period WAS the failure. Once things got political, we were gonners. Had the two parties linked arms and figured it all out, we'd be in much better shape.

Our entire political world and media world failed us. They should own this, but they won't. They'll continue to pit us against one another.
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Old 07-13-2020, 08:40 PM   #5766
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Fucking those with influence and power who jockeyed for position instead of what was right for the people.

We the fucking people.

Great job.
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Old 07-13-2020, 11:24 PM   #5767
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IMO, politics period WAS the failure. Once things got political, we were gonners. Had the two parties linked arms and figured it all out, we'd be in much better shape.

Our entire political world and media world failed us. They should own this, but they won't. They'll continue to pit us against one another.
Lmao at trying to “both sides” this one.

At least you’ve gone off the “flu” gas lighting efforts for now so I suppose progress?

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Old 07-14-2020, 12:24 AM   #5768
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Flu?

It's always both sides....there are no innocents in politiks...
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Old 07-14-2020, 06:24 AM   #5769
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In Santa Clara country, noticed that the case per day is 3x the peak of the first wave, but deaths are flattening. Hospital bed utilization is low too.

What is the cause of this? Is this from more testing, bad data, treatment, the venerable die off ?
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Old 07-14-2020, 07:07 AM   #5770
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My niece and her son just found out they have Covid 19.
They live in Tulsa.
How long ago was that city inundated with stupid people refusing to wear masks?
Not too long ago.

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Old 07-14-2020, 07:34 AM   #5771
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Not too long ago.
Also not too long ago...

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Old 07-14-2020, 07:52 AM   #5772
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In Santa Clara country, noticed that the case per day is 3x the peak of the first wave, but deaths are flattening. Hospital bed utilization is low too.

What is the cause of this? Is this from more testing, bad data, treatment, the venerable die off ?
From a statistical POV, not medical, lower fatality rate that is inconsistent with the increasing new-case rate is likely due in part to involvement of lower risk age groups.

In California, victims under age 50 are at a relatively low fatality risk. From June 1 thru 7/12, deaths as a percentage of new cases for victims age 50+ was 4.6%. For ages under 50 it was 0.1%.

Before June 1, 42% of new California cases were age 50+. Since June 1, it has been 28%.

Data from California Department of Public Health.
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Old 07-14-2020, 08:43 AM   #5773
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Latin America and the Caribbean have reported more coronavirus deaths than US and Canada
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Latin America and the Caribbean have now recorded more coronavirus deaths than the US and Canada, a CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data shows.

As of Tuesday, Latin America and the Caribbean have reported at least 146,515 deaths due to Covid-19. The United States and Canada combined have recorded at least 144,451 coronavirus deaths.

CNN’s analysis is based on Johns Hopkins figures as of 4 a.m. ET today. The data for “Latin America and the Caribbean” includes the following countries: Brazil, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Haiti, Paraguay, Nicaragua, Cuba, Uruguay and Jamaica.
Bolivia is really starting to ramp up, Chile remains high as does Brazil.
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Old 07-14-2020, 09:03 AM   #5774
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[QUOTE=jt2;10606821]Not too long ago.

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Organizers of the BLM protests have consistently called for people to social distance and wear masks. Even in the picture it looks like about half the protestors are wearing them. The picture I've seen on local gatherings showed almost 100%

The anti-maskers (not specifically the pictured event) are entirely different because you have participants actively and purposely going against the recommendations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DataDan View Post
From a statistical POV, not medical, lower fatality rate that is inconsistent with the increasing new-case rate is likely due in part to involvement of lower risk age groups.

In California, victims under age 50 are at a relatively low fatality risk. From June 1 thru 7/12, deaths as a percentage of new cases for victims age 50+ was 4.6%. For ages under 50 it was 0.1%.

Before June 1, 42% of new California cases were age 50+. Since June 1, it has been 28%.

Data from California Department of Public Health.
This and hopefully the fact we've gotten better at treatment. We'll find out over the next couple weeks.
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Old 07-14-2020, 11:40 AM   #5775
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From a statistical POV, not medical, lower fatality rate that is inconsistent with the increasing new-case rate is likely due in part to involvement of lower risk age groups.

In California, victims under age 50 are at a relatively low fatality risk. From June 1 thru 7/12, deaths as a percentage of new cases for victims age 50+ was 4.6%. For ages under 50 it was 0.1%.

Before June 1, 42% of new California cases were age 50+. Since June 1, it has been 28%.

Data from California Department of Public Health.
Yes, that makes sense.

Yet, I think its important to realize that there were probably many under 50 years of age cases before June 1, but they probably were not tested.

I know early on, if you had systems, but you did not feel like you needed to go to the ER, they were asking you to stay home and isolate for ~14 days. No case counted, right? Bad data.

Those $100K high rate testing machines that Snaggy was talking about are probably chump change in hind sight.

Also, if different health care providers and regions have different test criteria, test turn around and accuracy the data is hard to compare accurately. Fog of war.
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