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Old 08-19-2020, 02:54 PM   #61
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The fires were caused by lightning from storm cells that had trailed into the Bay Area from a tropical storm off Baja.

It’s impossible to say whether that specific storm was caused by climate change - that’s not how that works. But climate change theory predicts that tropical storms will become more intense, and that has been borne out by observations over the past couple of decades.
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Old 08-19-2020, 03:00 PM   #62
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Fire is much more robust and probable when temps go up.

Temps are higher than their historical averages.

Is it the only cause? Of course not. But it seems silly to discount it out of hand.
Can you quantify "much" ? Of course, fire is less robust and is less probable when it rains, which it did during the lightning storm. Does the increased probability of fire due to climate change offset the reduced probability of fire during rain? To what degree?

But I understand using the situation to promote an agenda. Kind of like the suggestive reason why Governor wine valley never burns... Climate change must not work there, but who knows, maybe there are other reasons. Which one suits your fancy?
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Last edited by ctwo; 08-19-2020 at 03:05 PM..
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Old 08-19-2020, 03:08 PM   #63
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Old 08-19-2020, 04:10 PM   #64
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This is the best map I've found of the fires in the East Bay.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...968521499&z=11

The Mt. Hamilton fire is getting a bit too close for comfort.
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Old 08-19-2020, 04:42 PM   #65
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Climate change certainly seems to be playing a role here. Hotter summers, generally milder winters and now very seldom summer storms. Weather patterns completely changing (like the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that comes in and blocks all weather for weeks or months at a time).

On the other side we are also paying for decades of misguided forestry policy. It turns out absolute fire suppression has turned much of the state into an overgrown tinderbox which actually leaves forests less healthy than allowing natural fires to clear areas out.
This

Also as another note: I believe that Cal Fire's crews were 30% or more staffed by inmates. We'll, we released a bunch of them (not sure but non-violent offenders can go to work camps like the one near me called Salt Creek Camp). Also, do to COVID, they have been locked down in their facilities and are not out working the fire lines. So this would make the response time slower. Cal Fire has hired a bunch more seasonal Wildland Firefighters but it is not like turning on a light switch.
We've had a lot of people staying at our place that worked clean up and tree marking in Paradise, we now have two fire crews at our place, though we haven't seen them in some time. I ride in the Mendo forest a lot, and have lived in the area for many, many years. Yes we are experiencing dryer than normal conditions that are stressing the forest, there are a lot of sick or dead trees. Also there is so much underbrush (manzanita up here) that is a huge fuel load. Triple whammy: dry and ill forest, and undergrowth that is out of control, and lack of skilled resources to rapidly control a fire once it gets going.
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Old 08-19-2020, 06:58 PM   #66
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This

Also as another note: I believe that Cal Fire's crews were 30% or more staffed by inmates. We'll, we released a bunch of them (not sure but non-violent offenders can go to work camps like the one near me called Salt Creek Camp). Also, do to COVID, they have been locked down in their facilities and are not out working the fire lines. So this would make the response time slower. Cal Fire has hired a bunch more seasonal Wildland Firefighters but it is not like turning on a light switch.
We've had a lot of people staying at our place that worked clean up and tree marking in Paradise, we now have two fire crews at our place, though we haven't seen them in some time. I ride in the Mendo forest a lot, and have lived in the area for many, many years. Yes we are experiencing dryer than normal conditions that are stressing the forest, there are a lot of sick or dead trees. Also there is so much underbrush (manzanita up here) that is a huge fuel load. Triple whammy: dry and ill forest, and undergrowth that is out of control, and lack of skilled resources to rapidly control a fire once it gets going.
note also that human activity caused fires are generally more accessible, closer to roads, while lighting caused fires can be in very inaccessible terrain leading to delayed response times.

the fire suppression policies from the 1890s were still prevalent until the late 80s, leading to a centuries worth of undergrowth in most forests: this made fires hotter and longer burning. Combine that with increased human habitation in the wildland environment interface which increased the fuel load. Look at pictures of the camp fire where trees are still standing but houses are down to the foundation.

Climate change, read global warming, while only a small effect, when combined with the increased fuel load gives us the opportunity for larger and hotter fires.

look at 86 one of the worst fire seasons by acreage. This is not a new phenomenon, it's been building for decades.
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Old 08-19-2020, 10:16 PM   #67
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Map for south bay. Purple zone is moving away from me, moving south to Hollister
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/vi...749481946&z=11

Last edited by gnahc79; 08-19-2020 at 10:18 PM..
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Old 08-19-2020, 10:35 PM   #68
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Old 08-19-2020, 10:53 PM   #69
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Stony was burning as I drove to sf a few weeks ago. Berryessa was sending huge plumes of smoke into the air yesterday. Driving 505 I didn’t even need sunnies even though it was mid day as it was quite smoky. It stayed smoky until close to Redding and then cleared up.

I feel for the animals who can’t easily escape as their home burns.

Oobus, take good care of those fire fighters for us. Thank you.
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Old 08-20-2020, 06:15 AM   #70
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Hey, I'm just taking the POV that climate change should not be the scapegoat for everything that happens. I mean, if I asked why the ghost fire, cuz climate change, asking for an explanation is out of line?

Y'alls must be buddies or sumthin. And you just want to be judgmental and presumptuous.

Again, there are about a dozen fires blazing for days now. The vast majority are 0% contained, and the few that have any containment are at most 10%. I ask WTF? Reason given is climate change. Makes no sense. Climate change is preventing containment?

The only explanation that came close to an explanation was that it's hot and the areas are remote. Perhaps that could explain it to a degree. Is that the only thing going on that is preventing containment? How is heat and remote areas preventing air retardant drops? How could most of these fires still be 0% contained? Climate change is preventing firefighters from doing their job?

Maybe there are only enough firefighters to attack three of the dozen or so fires, and they are leaving the rest to freely burn for now. That would make a bit of sense, more so than just blaming climate change, which, BTW, is not evidence. How is just pointing at climate evidence? Seems like target fixation to me.

Now, I'm not a climate change denier. We may quibble about all of the causes. Now, for the lightning storm, you may have a point...
Climate change does not mean a slow increase in temps across the world. It leads ot more exptreme conditions. More extreme winters, which we have seen. More extreme summers, which we have seen. Droughts lead to forests dying or being stressed, which leads ot an increase of bark beetles and other forest diseases, which leads to an increase in fire load. Climate change may be responsible for the incvrease in wild storm activity, such as massive lightning storms that we have never really experienced here.

Sure, you can ask for quantification. And to that I say, prove me wrong. You keep asking people to prove their point. I am asking you to show some evidence against it. All you do is sit here and say "prove it" What are you, 12?
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Old 08-20-2020, 06:43 AM   #71
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Sure, you can ask for quantification. And to that I say, prove me wrong. You keep asking people to prove their point. I am asking you to show some evidence against it. All you do is sit here and say "prove it" What are you, 12?
Simply put, there are 17 fires raging in CA and probably most were ignited by the lightning storms. 13 are 0% contained and that is what I'm questioning, the numerous 0% containment. The lack of containment is not due to climate change and widespread fires are not new to CA. Climate change did not happen overnight and if we are not capable of handling the situation then that is a result of poor management. This seems to be happening every year so we ought to plan ways to mitigate and better respond.

A few others have offered some plausible explanations.

Thanks!
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:02 AM   #72
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Death Valley as a location means fuckall, the fact that we just recorded one of the highest temperatures on earth a handful of miles from the fires is the kicker.

So, to recap:

One of the hottest days on earth occurred last week, probably due to climate change.
Years of dead and drying fuel, due to climate change and poor forest management.
Intense lightning storms in areas not typically known for intense lightning storms, climate change?

+/- 2 dozen fires started almost simultaneously over hundreds of square miles of remote, virtually inaccessible terrain.



I don't understand what's happening someone please explain.
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:07 AM   #73
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:25 AM   #74
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Simply put, there are 17 fires raging in CA and probably most were ignited by the lightning storms. 13 are 0% contained and that is what I'm questioning, the numerous 0% containment. The lack of containment is not due to climate change and widespread fires are not new to CA. Climate change did not happen overnight and if we are not capable of handling the situation then that is a result of poor management. This seems to be happening every year so we ought to plan ways to mitigate and better respond.

A few others have offered some plausible explanations.

Thanks!
Let me give you an example. I assume you have been camping before. Ever tried to start and maintain a fire with wet wood? Now have you ever started and maintained a fire with dry, overgrown wood? Which one burns faster and hotter? This can be attributed to climate change in the ways I mentioned above (increased fuel load, dryer fuel). That will lead to conditions where the fuel is ready to go and when it goes, it goes fast. Couple that with record high temps (extreme conditions), and extreme weather events (lightning storms) and yes, I think you can make a connection to climate change for the cause of the fires, as well as the intentisity and lack of containment.

But go ahead and dismiss it and keep moving the goalpost. You started arguing about the cause of the fires. Now you are arguing about containment.
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Old 08-20-2020, 07:53 AM   #75
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