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Old 03-12-2021, 10:49 AM   #31
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After this much time I’m not convinced it’s a demand issue. The problem has to be on the supply side, you can’t have a shortage this long when stores are saying they hardly get anything to put on the shelves. Whatever does trickle out to retailers gets snatched up but there should have been plenty of time to ramp up production. Blame covid or whatever but I don’t think “hoarders” are driving the shortage.
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Old 03-12-2021, 12:27 PM   #32
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I worked at a shooting range/gun store when 9/11 happened. Prior to that we had bulk 223/308/762x39/556/762x51etc regularly. After that I saw those in bulk maybe 2 more times. They lasted on the shelf part of a day. I worked there until December 2003, more than 2 years after 9/11. I think the reaction to COVID and the riots that took place most of last year has been far more than anything that happened after 9/11 so I would expect this to continue until the manufacturers add considerably more production capacity.
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Old 03-12-2021, 12:34 PM   #33
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They probably don't want to ramp up too much because then if this dies down they will have excess capacity and no one to sell it to. Also I wonder how much of what they need comes from outside the US and maybe covid hit them harder so it is harder to get the raw materials for making rounds....
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Old 03-12-2021, 04:02 PM   #34
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The problem has to be on the supply side, you can’t have a shortage this long when stores are saying they hardly get anything to put on the shelves.
When store don't have anything on the shelves, they order more.

When stores have surplus on the shelves, they don't order more.

When store have surplus on the shelves, and they're not ordering more, stores that do not have surplus order more and get their orders shipped. Typically those stores then have surplus while other stores get their order.

Now.

When none of the stores have surplus, they all order more. But since everyone is ordering, and there's no slack in the supply chain, everyone starts getting rationed. Getting smaller orders. People come and buy everything they can see: shooters, hoarders, black market profiteers.

Which, of course, makes stores order more.

Until demand dries up, the manufacturers can not keep up with supply.

Until stores stop getting their small orders hoovered up by their customers, until a box of .218 Bee can sit on a shelf for more than a week, stores will continue to make orders.

When people stop buying, when surpluses start appearing in retail stores, then the supply will be greater than demand and, soon, everyone will have surpluses.

At that point, the factories will fire their graveyard shift, and people who know longer buy ammo will be blamed for an unemployment spike in the firearms industry.
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Old 03-16-2021, 02:02 AM   #35
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When store don't have anything on the shelves, they order more.

When stores have surplus on the shelves, they don't order more.

When store have surplus on the shelves, and they're not ordering more, stores that do not have surplus order more and get their orders shipped. Typically those stores then have surplus while other stores get their order.

Now.

When none of the stores have surplus, they all order more. But since everyone is ordering, and there's no slack in the supply chain, everyone starts getting rationed. Getting smaller orders. People come and buy everything they can see: shooters, hoarders, black market profiteers.

Which, of course, makes stores order more.

Until demand dries up, the manufacturers can not keep up with supply.

Until stores stop getting their small orders hoovered up by their customers, until a box of .218 Bee can sit on a shelf for more than a week, stores will continue to make orders.

When people stop buying, when surpluses start appearing in retail stores, then the supply will be greater than demand and, soon, everyone will have surpluses.

At that point, the factories will fire their graveyard shift, and people who know longer buy ammo will be blamed for an unemployment spike in the firearms industry.
So you’re saying the best business model is complete supply side inflexibility leading to a year+ of empty shelves and unmet demand... some of us just want to go shooting and replace what we shoot. I haven’t gone shooting for fun in so long, in large part because of the high cost or even impossibility of replacing what I may use in a day.
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Old 03-16-2021, 06:20 AM   #36
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So you’re saying the best business model is complete supply side inflexibility leading to a year+
What inflexibility?

As I understand it, the major manufacturers have increased shift time and have also (or are in the process of) expanding capacity.

The real question, is how much of a burden on the civilian supply is the need to service government contracts. Because, that's obviously another outlet for capacity.

I don't know if they're signing new contracts or not, and I assume that the contracts they have with the various agencies have fixed obligations to be supplied. This is in contrast to a wholesale or retail customer who does not have a contract, and rather must stand in line to have their orders filled ad hoc.

But everything I've been hearing is that the government agencies aren't ordering more ammunition than normal. The agencies demands have not exploded by double digits with the influx of new gun owners, nor are they demonstrating a hoarding mentality.

Ideally, they have a guaranteed supply and thus have no need to hoard or buy spontaneously.

When people feel then can store the ammo they need on the store shelves instead of in their homes, they'll stop buying everything in sight. The civilian market, however, is not there yet.
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Old 03-16-2021, 01:35 PM   #37
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412,000 new gun owners in California since January 1, 2020. That's got to be huge reason why we can't find ammo on the shelves.
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Old 03-16-2021, 03:07 PM   #38
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The weird part about this shortage is all calibers are out. I collect WWII firearms and cannot find ammo for my rifles. 303 brit, 7.62x54, 7.7 or any odd calibers. Before the shortage, Cabela's had a decent amount of these calibers, so who is hording the old stuff. Luckily I started reloading years ago, but cannot get bullets, powder or primers.
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Old 03-17-2021, 06:34 AM   #39
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Bullets are not a problem unless you're looking for something ridiculously specific, like 180gr round nose in .308.
You just have to take time to go through website inventory.
Powders have been available, but you again have to be patient, and it doesn't hurt to join a reloader's forum.

Primers, if you didn't stack deep, you're screwed.
Some reloaders have started reusing old ones, but that is a pain in the ass, and the materials are highly corrosive.
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Old 03-17-2021, 10:16 AM   #40
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Old 03-17-2021, 01:05 PM   #41
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I have been looking for 303 brit bullets for a while at the local stores, but I should start looking online. You are correct about primers. they are non existent right now. Luckily I have a few, but will run out this year if I cannot re-supply.
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