BARF - Bay Area Riders Forum

Go Back   BARF - Bay Area Riders Forum > Moto > 1Rider


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-25-2015, 08:35 AM   #46
HeatXfer
Not Erudite, just er
 
HeatXfer's Avatar
 
AMA #3295418

Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: East Bay
Motorcycles: '87 Paso 750. '07 KTM 990
Name: Chris
All this boils down to is experience. Just like Louis Pasture said, "Fortune Favors the Prepared Mind". IMO that's the Fourth Group. Unless you're a "natural" I believe luck plays a bigger role for the inexperienced.

I'd love to be a "Fourth": I try to identify sticky situations and not get into them, does that mean I qualify? I can accept the postulation that all things are predetermined and not necessarily measurable, that doesn't mean I'm not going to try to control it. That mind set takes control away, it takes chance and hope away. Nearly all the things we do are based on constructs anyway, our projections to explain our reality. That's too much for this little noggin to explore in depth.

I'll just keep riding and feeling lucky, until there might a time I don't.

I hope I win the lottery.
__________________
I know you think you understand what you though I said, but Iím not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant
- Robert McKloskey

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
- Isaac Asimov

Last edited by HeatXfer; 07-25-2015 at 08:38 AM..
HeatXfer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 08:36 AM   #47
Carlo
Kickstart Enthusiast
 
Carlo's Avatar
 
Mod Alumni
Contributor

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Oregon
Motorcycles: Aprilia/BMW/Royal Enfield/BSA
Name:
Luck plays two parts. One minor part; for the more experienced riders whove got enough experince to recognize the imminent dangers before they become critical, and one major part that applies to all of us when, for whatever reason, a crash becomes inevitable.
I've mentioned many times here that I've had a total of four on-the-road-at-speed crashes, all within the first 8 years of my 46 years of riding, mostly on public roads.
Each of those crashes taught me a new lesson, which prevented a similar type of crash, so far, for the rest of my life. I was also damn lucky to survive each of them with no serious injuries. Two of them could easily have killed me if the circumstances had been slightly different, all four could have resulted in serious-to-life-changing injury with small changes in the circumstances.
I was also very lucky numerous times in my early years in avoiding crashes just by being in a slightly different place when I needed to be. Close calls.
After well over 40 years on public roads, I hardly ever have a close call; experienced riders know their limitations and (usually) ride well within them on public roads. We also develop an ability to read very subtle cues put out by other users of the road around us, as well as the ability to tell where hidden threats might be coming from.
So luck is an important factor. I still hope I'm lucky when/if something crazy and totally unpredictable comes along, but the need for luck regarding factors within our control decrease over time as we learn how to mitigate the risks inherent in riding motorcycles.
__________________
Barf Terms of Service
Carlo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 08:45 AM   #48
flying_hun
Adverse Selection
 
flying_hun's Avatar
 
AMA #: 281672
BARF Admin
BARFie Winner 2010, 2014 & 2017
Contributor ++++++++++++++++++ ++++

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Orinda, CA
Motorcycles: A hot red Italian named Sophia! Versys - three of 'em!
Name:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DataDan View Post
And is it hubris to think that one can improve his luck by working to understand a certain crash and adopt a countermeasure? Really?
You read my post, and drew that conclusion regarding my meaning? I need to work on my communication skills.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UDRider View Post
DataDan I believe Flying_hun was referring to the first group in his post. He can correct me if I am wrong.
You're not wrong.
__________________
Kurt

BARF Terms of Service
TheFlyinghun Blog
Tenth Annual BARF Fall Rally - Hawthorne


Quote:
If you want others to be happy, practice compassion.
If you want to be happy, practice compassion.
- Dalai Lama
flying_hun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 08:51 AM   #49
Carlo
Kickstart Enthusiast
 
Carlo's Avatar
 
Mod Alumni
Contributor

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Oregon
Motorcycles: Aprilia/BMW/Royal Enfield/BSA
Name:
As usual Dan, you break it down perfectly.
I would like to point out, per the bolded sentence below, that I feel the opposite about one thing: I was a very, very lucky rider during my first 8 years.
I didn't have the skills or knowledge to avoid crashes that should be avoidable. Since I don't believe in predestination, I have to say that the outcomes of those crashes couldn't have been luckier.
Today, I don't need luck as much as I did back then. I do hope that if a dog falls off a freeway overpass onto me, the luck is still there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DataDan View Post
One group--we're talking a single-digit number of BARFers--thinks luck can be ground down to nothing. They believe that with skill and experience, random shit can be eliminated as a motorcycling risk factor. This is what philosophy geeks would call a "non-falsifiable hypothesis". There is no experiment, no observation of reality that could disprove it. If you crash, you clearly lack the needed crash-prevention trait. Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.

A similarly small second group sees reality as a sequence of preordained events orchestrated by external forces. We can call an outcome "lucky" or "unlucky", but that's just personal spin on what was meant to be and couldn't have been otherwise. They say "when it's your time, it's your time" but don't object to skill development or protective gear, so maybe they're hedging just a little.

A third group--don't know how many, but it seems like a lot--thinks luck plays a considerable part in motorcycling risk and that it's constant across the population. Riding safely is part skill and protective gear, which can be improved, but the remainder is intractable luck. If you disagree with them and believe instead that luck is a variable that can be improved, you're as deeply in denial as the first group. They find their view comforting because no one can be safer than they are, with their above-average bike handling skills (like the children of Lake Wobegon) and designer-label gear. And it's low-effort because trying to improve luck by learning from experience would be a waste of time with the riding environment so vast and unpredictably random.

A fourth group--which includes me and, I think, a majority of BARF--sees luck as a variable that can be developed. Through directed effort, I'm a luckier rider today than I was 10 years ago, and I hope next year to be luckier still. Each new wrinkle learned about motorcycles and roads and traffic can be put to use. But we acknowledge that safety will always be part luck. That includes "unknown-unknowns", things we don't know and don't know that we don't know, and also "known-unknowns", things we are aware could go wrong, but which we choose not to adopt countermeasures against. Known-unknowns are what I call "falling dog" problems. Thirty years ago my sister, worried about my taking up motorcycling, sent me a clipping about rider who was killed when a dog fell from an overpass. Whatever. If it happens, it happens, but I'm not taking precautions against it.

As a longtime adherent of the fourth view, I'm fed up with being accused of holding the first view. An example of a skilled and experienced rider who crashes doesn't contradict the view that luck can be improved; I don't claim the role of luck can be eliminated. And one rider's acceptance of a certain risk in order to enjoy a reward doesn't mean that that risk is inevitable for all; I may choose not to accept that risk. And is it hubris to think that one can improve his luck by working to understand a certain crash and adopt a countermeasure? Really?
__________________
Barf Terms of Service

Last edited by Carlo; 07-25-2015 at 08:52 AM..
Carlo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 08:58 AM   #50
Carlo
Kickstart Enthusiast
 
Carlo's Avatar
 
Mod Alumni
Contributor

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Oregon
Motorcycles: Aprilia/BMW/Royal Enfield/BSA
Name:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike95060 View Post
When Gary J died it dawned on me that I had gotten by dumb luck. I thought to myself, "if it can happen to a guy that good, it should have happend to me already."
I don't remember the circumstances surrounding his death, but I believe he was one of the "fast guys", who pushed the envelope pretty hard.
One that I do remember who was reputed to be a very competent rider was owns9. He crashed hard at least twice on highway 9 and survived (with serious injuries, if memory serves), then failed to survive his last crash on 9.
This was not a freak occurrance. He was pushing the envelope very hard, just like he's done many times before. Luck was a far more important factor to him than skill at that time.
__________________
Barf Terms of Service

Last edited by Carlo; 07-25-2015 at 08:59 AM..
Carlo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:13 AM   #51
sanjuro
Rider
 
sanjuro's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Oaklamd
Motorcycles: GSX-R 1000
Name: Steve
I don't believe in luck. I believe in risk.

For example, this morning I was rolling down a road in my neighborhood after breakfast.

It was a 40mph 5 lane road with the center lane for left turns in either direction.

A delivery truck was in this center lane and I could see ahead a SUV was about to make a left in front of me. The SUV driver's vision was partially blocked by the truck.

I immediately performed avoidance maneuvers. I moved over right in my lane for maximum visibility. I got off the throttle and braked a bit.

What happened? The SUV saw me and did not turn. I could have been texting and made it down the street safely.

I recognized the risk though and I was prepared for an emergency stop and/or swerve.

There were also other factors, like I had just had a few cups of coffee and wanted to get home quickly. But I also acknowledged that I was in a rush before I got back on my bike, so I was also alert, not distracted.

I don't believe in random events. Yes, I might be hit by a lightning bolt, but most other dangers can be acknowledged and prepared for.
sanjuro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:18 AM   #52
flying_hun
Adverse Selection
 
flying_hun's Avatar
 
AMA #: 281672
BARF Admin
BARFie Winner 2010, 2014 & 2017
Contributor ++++++++++++++++++ ++++

Join Date: May 2005
Location: Orinda, CA
Motorcycles: A hot red Italian named Sophia! Versys - three of 'em!
Name:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceflinch View Post
Nice post, but the Song is "What's Love got to do with it?"...just saying
No SHIT!!? OMG, all this time I've been misunderstanding those lyrics? All that time spent watching MTV in the 80's was a complete waste? This all makes so much sense! I should hang out with you more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlo View Post
I don't remember the circumstances surrounding his death, but I believe he was one of the "fast guys", who pushed the envelope pretty hard.
One that I do remember who was reputed to be a very competent rider was owns9. He crashed hard at least twice on highway 9 and survived (with serious injuries, if memory serves), then failed to survive his last crash on 9.
This was not a freak occurrance. He was pushing the envelope very hard, just like he's done many times before. Luck was a far more important factor to him than skill at that time.
  1. I would not confuse GaryJ with Lavelle
  2. Last I knew, Lavelle was still alive
__________________
Kurt

BARF Terms of Service
TheFlyinghun Blog
Tenth Annual BARF Fall Rally - Hawthorne


Quote:
If you want others to be happy, practice compassion.
If you want to be happy, practice compassion.
- Dalai Lama
flying_hun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:19 AM   #53
DataDan
Mama says he's bona fide
 
DataDan's Avatar
 
BARF Mod Alumni
BARFie winner 2010 & 2014
Contributor ++++

Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Luis Obispo
Motorcycles: Yamaha FJR1300
Name: Dan
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike95060 View Post
When Gary J died it dawned on me that I had gotten by dumb luck. I thought to myself, "if it can happen to a guy that good, it should have happend to me already."
Gary was well aware of his crash risk. Read his 2005 thread: How to achieve "I've been riding for XX (lots!) years - w/no crashes" bragging status. As a rider with a lower limit of acceptable risk than his, I never accepted his premise.
__________________
It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
--Richard Feynman
DataDan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:24 AM   #54
redtail
only ones and zeroes
 
redtail's Avatar
 
Contributor + +

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: East Bay
Motorcycles: <LIFE><! Ride until..></LIFE>
Name: Jon
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjuro View Post
I don't believe in random events. Yes, I might be hit by a lightning bolt, but most other dangers can be acknowledged and prepared for.
I get what you're saying and agree, but these two statements seem to contradict each other.

I do believe that you can prepare, with practice, awareness, skill and repetition. And those things will greatly improve your "luck", or whatever you wish to call it.

But as a Vet once told me, "sometimes a bullet has your name on it, sometimes it don't." I've never been in battle, so I believe him.
redtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:32 AM   #55
GAJ
Veteran
 
GAJ's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: SANTA ROSA
Motorcycles: DRZ400SM, F800ST
Name: Geoff
Quote:
Originally Posted by redtail View Post

But as a Vet once told me, "sometimes a bullet has your name on it, sometimes it don't." I've never been in battle, so I believe him.
On the same subject and perhaps a bit oblique, but I think most will get the point.

One of my favorite quotes of all time attributable to many people including Georges Clemceau the French Statesmen.

“The cemeteries are full of indispensable men.”
GAJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 09:54 AM   #56
NeilInPacifica
Veteran
 
NeilInPacifica's Avatar
 
Contributor +++

Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Pacifica
Motorcycles: 2017 FZ-09 2016 12GS, 2015 Versys 650
Name: Neil
My mental image...a jar of jelly beans. Some of the beans are black - I don't like black jelly beans, they are poison to me. If I'm sitting alone in the dark eating jelly beans from the jar how do I avoid eating a black one? I spend time in the light, when I'm not eating them, to pick as many of them out of the jar as I can.

But there is always the chance that I missed one, or some idiot added a bag of fresh jelly beans to the jar when I wasn't looking. That's life. We can't cover every threat, nor can we guarantee that someone else didn't introduced one that we can't account for.

And sometimes there is just the butterfly effect - when I was a teenager (16-17) commuting down 101 every day to SJSU on my RD350 someone stole it while I was in class. Probably the reason I'm still here to write this now. It was a blessing in disguise...which also led to my leaving school, joining the Marines, going to a different school, meeting my wife there, having kids...etc.. etc..

Last edited by NeilInPacifica; 07-25-2015 at 10:20 AM..
NeilInPacifica is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 10:22 AM   #57
tuxumino
Psy Ops
 
tuxumino's Avatar
 
AMA #: 249288
Chief Beer Mooch
Contributor ++++

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: RaiderNation
Motorcycles: my butt on a duc
Name:
I like to say, you have to train to be lucky.
luck is opportunity, you have to be in the right place at the right time with the right skill set and recognize the opportunity to be able to take advantage of it. In regard to crashing you must see the opportunity to not crash and seize it: if that means riding cautiously that's fine but sooner or later you find yourself in a situation you didn't foresee. Is there an opportunity to not crash, do you have the skill set to take advantage of it?
__________________
(\_/)
(O.o) This is Bunny. Copy Bunny to your signature
(> <) to help him achieve world domination.
T.M.U. Local 510 Rabbit Deployment Farce
tuxumino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 11:09 AM   #58
sanjuro
Rider
 
sanjuro's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Oaklamd
Motorcycles: GSX-R 1000
Name: Steve
Quote:
Originally Posted by redtail View Post
I get what you're saying and agree, but these two statements seem to contradict each other.

I do believe that you can prepare, with practice, awareness, skill and repetition. And those things will greatly improve your "luck", or whatever you wish to call it.

But as a Vet once told me, "sometimes a bullet has your name on it, sometimes it don't." I've never been in battle, so I believe him.
Well, there are events which could possibly happen, like a 2x4 falling off a truck or a driver who swerves randomly, like from a stroke.

While the only strategy is to be prepared for anything, you could be obsessed with that random event and let paranoia control you.

You have to grip the handle tightly, but not so tight that you lose feeling.

And I bet the best way to avoid being shot is to avoid a gun fight!
sanjuro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 11:58 AM   #59
NeilInPacifica
Veteran
 
NeilInPacifica's Avatar
 
Contributor +++

Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Pacifica
Motorcycles: 2017 FZ-09 2016 12GS, 2015 Versys 650
Name: Neil
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanjuro View Post
While the only strategy is to be prepared for anything, you could be obsessed with that random event and let paranoia control you.
Exactly. A few years ago an entire family from Pacifica were driving home on 280 and a tow truck came down on them from the overpass. Killed the entire family. When I read the story I thought, holy shit now I need to watch for random crap falling from overpasses too!? Not happening, there's just so much I can be prepared for.
NeilInPacifica is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2015, 01:21 PM   #60
redtail
only ones and zeroes
 
redtail's Avatar
 
Contributor + +

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: East Bay
Motorcycles: <LIFE><! Ride until..></LIFE>
Name: Jon
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilInPacifica View Post
A few years ago an entire family from Pacifica were driving home on 280 and a tow truck came down on them from the overpass. Killed the entire family.
Agreed, a few things are beyond our control, so you just control what you can and don't sweat the rest.
redtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 06:45 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.