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2025 Investment Thread

Caddywumpus said:
I closed mid morning for a nice profit. July puts still have plenty of theta in them, but Id rather get paid than get slaughtered. Ill re-enter if TSLA bounces
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You never really want to say you think something is a bad idea, because it plants this weird seed of uncertainly from a stranger on the internet after you've already sorted out something on your own, but I definitely did not expect your original speculation to be as good as it's turning out to be.
 
byke said:
You never really want to say you think something is a bad idea, because it plants this weird seed of uncertainly from a stranger on the internet after you've already sorted out something on your own, but I definitely did not expect your original speculation to be as good as it's turning out to be.
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Screenshot 2025-02-07 120809.jpg


yellow is the 390 long put return line, yellow circle is the date he sold. looks like he made 15-25% (any trade that makes money is a good trade!) but the ride was bumpier than non-options traders might imagine. If he had sold on 1/30 or 2/6, his profit would be approx double. Still, the trade was consistently profitable so that's about all one can ask for.
 
mercurial said:
well, when trading options, it is always possible to lose money, because they are complicated and their price depends on more than just where the underlying stock goes. It also depends on when the contract is dated, and how volatile the market perceives the asset to be.

The classic sucker's move is buying long options right before earnings, and then the stock moves in your desired direction but you still lose money because the perceived volatility tanks (I make the most consistent money taking the opposite side of this trade!)
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appreciate the response :thumbup i'm a cpa in tax so i have some general knowledge but i always like digging in to get a better understanding of things. if i had the time i would like to play with options but i've seen more people lose money with it so i've stayed away and just do my regular contributions to the sp500
 
Yeah its a bumpy ride but 10-20% gains and TSLAs inherent bullshittery ill take the wins and when I feel like rolling the dice I re-enter.
 
TSLA stock cratering. Hopefully the board kicks Musk out, he's just a distraction at this point. I doubt he even spends much time with Tesla, he's too busy with DOGE and X and SpaceX and posting garbage on social media
 
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Being worth as much as the top thirty automakers combined is nuts. If we use ford as a reference, tesla sold half as many cars for about 30% more ebitda, so they have nice margins, good for them. Even if we think tesla is worth twice as much as ford, that's a share price of like $22. That first-to-mass-produce just isn't special anymore, at least not enough to justify a $300/share inflation.
 
Caddy's speculation still kicking butt. Both a surprise and not, not because they had over $300 per share of hype value and a big shed makes perfect sense, but still a surprise because the dumb that caused it to happen, hasn't gone anywhere, so seeing it sort of start to happen, is surprising. Lotta excess speculation in dot com these days, maybe another dot-com pop in our future.
 
Musk doesn’t care about Tesla stock anymore, he’s got a much bigger piggy bank to raid. His net worth is still very much based on the stock though so hopefully it continues to crash.
 
Reli said:
Exactly why the board should kick him out
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The company still reeks of his stench making consumers look to the competition. Plus the charging stations expansion program had its funding cut and EV mandates have been eliminated. Not seeing this overvalued stock as something I’d be taking a gamble on.
 
He's not dumb enough to self-own, I'm sure EV programs will resurface down the road once a certain subset of the population has turned their attention to something else they want addressed.
 
Blankpage said:
The company still reeks of his stench making consumers look to the competition. Plus the charging stations expansion program had its funding cut and EV mandates have been eliminated. Not seeing this overvalued stock as something I’d be taking a gamble on.
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You can use RSP which is an equal-weight S&P500 instead of market cap. That way you don't own more Tesla than any of the other 499 stocks. Or just dump Tesla entirely and own DGRO or VIG instead, plus some VXF for small caps and VEU for foreign stocks.
 
I am holding the line, staying the course as always. Will pick up the pieces and move forward once the market settles in. As always.
 
Just got out of the market; nice run while it lasted.

Major tariffs coming down.
 
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