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2025 Investment Thread

This is why NVDA is a buy right now despite being highly valued. It's definitely not overvalued.

www.bbc.com

Stargate: Tech giants announce AI plan worth up to $500bn

Trump has extolled the project as an important investment, but Elon Musk is throwing shade on it.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

The creator of ChatGPT, OpenAI, is teaming up with another US tech giant, a Japanese investment firm and an Emirati sovereign wealth fund to build $500bn (£405bn) of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the United States.

The new company, called The Stargate Project, was announced at the White House by President Donald Trump who billed it "the largest AI infrastructure project by far in history" and said it would help keep "the future of technology" in the US.
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OpenAI has long called for more investment into data centres for AI. The Information, a technology news website, first reported on the Stargate project in March last year.

Other technology partners include British chipmaker Arm, US chipmaker Nvidia and Microsoft, which already has a partnership with OpenAI.
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The S&P500 ETFs like VOO automatically buys more NVDA when NVDA becomes larger because it is a capitalization-weighted index.

Rebalancing happens without a taxable event for you.




Just pointing out another option like we have discussed before. Something good for people who are new to investing. You are not going to beat the market either ETFs, but is a safe alternative and statistically, people do better with ETF rather than active stock picking. I am also not going to discourage active investing. I do it in a very small part for fun.
 
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FXCLM5 said:
If you did exactly what pelosi does, you print $

She has more insider knowledge than ppl realize she has.

The Google 150 strike at 2026 Jan is interesting, she must know congress is indeed gonna force Google to sell off chrome and stock may tank after that.

Don't dare look at those contract prices meow, a lot easier to stomach two days ago lol.

Also trump just signed 500billion for Stargate, basically gov backed data centers by 3/4 huge tech giants
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I think there is a bit of misunderstanding here about how Pelosi trades. She likes to buy deep in the money, long-dated call options, which are highly leveraged bullish positions. Right now you can buy a Jan 2026 GOOG $150 position for $61. So she's buying the movement of a $200 share for $61 (3X+ leverage) and she's paying a premium of $11 per share. She needs GOOG at $211 by Jan 2026, just to break even. If GOOG crashes that's going to be very bad for her, at $150/share she loses the entire trade ($300,000 -> zero.)

The reason why she sells lots of shares is not as it might appear. Options by nature have an associated timespan, when that timespan comes to a close the position has to close. Taking the Google example, if by Dec 2025 the stock is at $250, she's looking at a profit close to $39/share, and she wants to close the position for 2025 tax purposes. However, to sell the option contract on the open market, the bid/ask spread is often shitty for low volume options, so she might only find a buyer that's willing to pay $38. So instead she exercises the contract to receive a direct delivery of the shares, which at her contract price of $150 is going to cost $750k. 750k is a lot more capital than the original 300k, so she then sells some or all of those shares depending on her 2026 strategy.
 
Oof.


Nvidia Corp.’s plunge, fueled by investor concern about Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek, erased a record amount of stock-market value from the world’s largest company.

Nvidia shares tumbled as much as 13% soon after the opening bell Monday, erasing about $465 billion from the company’s market capitalization. That eclipsed the previous record — a 9% drop in September that wiped out about $279 billion in value — and was the biggest in US stock-market history.
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Ouch; feeling it through my index funds but not too badly.

www.nbcnews.com

Nvidia loses nearly $600 billion in market value after Chinese AI startup bursts onto scene

With Monday’s losses, Apple has retaken the title of world’s most valuable company and Nvidia’s value sank to around $2.8 trillion.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

Nvidia loses nearly $600 billion in market value after Chinese AI startup bursts onto scene. For some perspective, the amount of market value lost by Nvidia on Monday is more than the entire market value of Exxon Mobil, Costco, Home Depot or Bank of America.​

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Goes to show how quickly the tide can turn for what’s supposed to be a sure thing.
The odds that NVDA was going to maintain a long term monopoly on AI chips was slim to none. It’s not just China going after them.

Back last winter some talking head on CNBC had put a price target of $6500 on it, talking pre split numbers. The clown experts pulling numbers out their butt and folks just eating it up.
 
Valuations have to make sense in order to be well insulated from hits and a lot of them do not.
 
Blankpage said:
Goes to show how quickly the tide can turn for what’s supposed to be a sure thing.
The odds that NVDA was going to maintain a long term monopoly on AI chips was slim to none. It’s not just China going after them.

Back last winter some talking head on CNBC had put a price target of $6500 on it, talking pre split numbers. The clown experts pulling numbers out their butt and folks just eating it up.
Click to expand...

Yes, it is just China going after them. AMD is the only manufacturer coming close to beginning to erode NVidia's market share.
 
Killroy1999 said:
The S&P500 ETFs like VOO automatically buys more NVDA when NVDA becomes larger because it is a capitalization-weighted index.

Rebalancing happens without a taxable event for you.




Just pointing out another option like we have discussed before. Something good for people who are new to investing. You are not going to beat the market either ETFs, but is a safe alternative and statistically, people do better with ETF rather than active stock picking. I am also not going to discourage active investing. I do it in a very small part for fun.
Click to expand...


AND.....


When NVDA's market cap tanks, VOO automatically sells NVDA

:poop:
 
cheez said:
Yes, it is just China going after them. AMD is the only manufacturer coming close to beginning to erode NVidia's market share.
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Yep, as mentioned, not just China. Very likely there’s other companies and countries with projects at various stages of development not interested in being left behind.
Innovation isn’t limited to one company. In another year or two there’ll be other disruptions to NVDA’s dominance.
 
You'd have thought the same about tsla, but they're still holding grossly overvalued. You'd think it's gotta pop someday, but the power of the reddit minded r-word is strong.
 
byke said:
You'd have thought the same about tsla, but they're still holding grossly overvalued. You'd think it's gotta pop someday, but the power of the reddit minded r-word is strong.
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That is a bus I never jumped on directly though obviously in my index funds just like nvidia.
 
Blankpage said:
Yep, as mentioned, not just China. Very likely there’s other companies and countries with projects at various stages of development not interested in being left behind.
Innovation isn’t limited to one company. In another year or two there’ll be other disruptions to NVDA’s dominance.
Click to expand...
The pullback yesterday was around China open-sourcing their DeepSeek model which is reputed to be very effective and run on CPU rather than GPU hardware. There are many other hardware companies trying to build market-competitive hardware, and plenty of other software companies trying to make more efficient software that requires lower Capex spend to achieve the same results. Only a few nations are on our tech embargo list though, and China is one of them, as a result they haven't gotten allocations of NVidia's GPU hardware. So I was making it clear that specifically China was acting (against its own capital interests) to undercut NVidia's market position with their direct action of open-sourcing what could otherwise have been an incredibly profitable closed-source model.
 
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Pelosi unloaded a bunch of Nvidia before it crashed.

Just sayin'.
 
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