Grok says a electric heat pump water heater could save $500 a year
Lots of pro heat pump best case assumptions into that calculation. These are the ones that I see:
1. You switch to the E-ELECT rate plan to get $0.35 per kWH and only use hot water during the winter. (The rate for this plan in the winter is $0.35 -$0.38, close to the $0.35 used by Grok, but in the summer the rate varies from a low of $0.40 to $0.61 depending on the time of day, so summer cost is higher that Groks calc.)
2. You assume that the water heater is installed in a conditioned space to have free access to occupied space temperatures. (If you put the heat pump unit in a closet the efficiency will drop as it tries to pull heat in through the closet walls.)
3. You use a national average water consumption rate rather than drought adjusted water consumption rate. Californians do not have access to the same shower heads and faucets as the rest of the nation. We use less water because we have mandated limits on the amount of water our fixtures can use vs. the national average.
4. You ignore the added complexity of the heat pump water heater with its likely greater maintenance costs over a gas unit.
When the BAAQMD plan to outlaw gas water heater installation was in public review, I did my own calculation for the savings of using a heat pump water heater. They claimed $500 per year savings in the support data, which seemed off to me since my average summer gas bill (water heater and range, no furnace) was $23 per month or $276 per year. How could our two person household save $500 per year when we only use $276 of gas for cooking and water heating a year?
I modeled the lowest efficiency gas water heater from State company (63% Eff) and compared it to the highest efficiency heat pump water heater they make and calculated a $6 63 per month or $80 per year savings over natural gas. That is a 29% savings over natural gas. I was using the TOU-C tariff instead of the Electric Home tariff because I have solar. Let's give the heat pump unit another $3 per month savings and make is $120 per year.
I won't even start with the installation cost comparison since pulling a new circuit from the electrical panel to the water heater location isn't included in that pricing.
So, if you live in a house without solar in order to change to the E-ELECT tariff after your install of the heat pump water heater and use only winter electrical rates for heating AND you have a household of 6+ water wasting people who all take super long showers and you locate the water heater in a conditioned space and not in your garage or a closet , then you could possibly save $500 per year.
Flip