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Rent Dropping

At just a glance at CL rentals on the peninsula many renters are offering a free month, price reductions, and other signing bonuses. Here in Palo Alto the only real growth has been from Facebook coupled with foreign investors hiding their money in real estate soaking up housing. Potentially softening into a downturn? Sure. But the same house that was $250k 20 years ago is now $2.5m. Until you all stop having babies housing costs will only increase long term.
 
mlm said:
I'm not in the property business, but there are multiple new office projects under construction in Sunnyvale and I'm not seeing empty office space.
Click to expand...

I have no idea if they are claimed or not, but there are a bunch of new shiny tech buildings along 237 and more than a couple are empty. But then again, it seems like there have always been empty tech buildings along that corridor.

Cocky I think PA is a special little animal. It's not just FB and Chinese money, it's because every up and coming tech executive asshole wants to live there and is willing to pay $2.5M for a 1000 sq. ft shack, so they can belong to the club. It also doesn't help that Stanford seems to own half the town and isn't afraid to use their extra land for open space, organic vegetable gardens, and chicken coops. I was joking with my boss the other day, that you could probably hire a bunch of bums to solicit for signatures for petitions in front of all the $10M semi-suburban homes, and force the rich owners to pay a fee if they wanted the bums to move on.
 
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Palo Alto is its own special little microcosm, but its effects spiral out. When the stock market tops out all of the VC money dries up because the returns aren't worth the risks, so no more start ups, and the flailing start ups are left to wither on the vine and die out leaving a lack of incoming workforce, which is why rent is stabilizing. The commercial upflux is the result of plans from three years ago finally being executed. Maybe it's a slight pullback for six months or six years, who knows? But there's evidence to confirm that at the moment rents have softened.
 
MrIncredible said:
Just don't fall for the fallacy I keep seeing of you need to stay in SF because you make more-I swear no one looks at total cost of living.

https://hired.com/blog/candidates/where-engineer-salaries-pay-highest-standard-living/
Click to expand...

That's probably true for a lot of people, but the difference for me is so stark. Also, cost of living is only one aspect. I get a 5% base contribution, and a 5% match if I contribute 5% to my 403b (10% for free), that's worth sticking around for a bit.

I live in Modesto and work in the Bay Area, but even if I moved to another state or even area within this state, I'd have to downgrade my lifestyle significantly. I could afford to live, but wouldn't have the recreational/financial freedom I have now.
 
I hope a lot of the nay sayers realize that we aren't far from the economy tanking again. The only reason we have the marginal growth we have is The Fed has kept interest rates artificially low for so long. As soon as rates go back to/slightly above historical levels, expect the housing market to become stagnated. There is a lot of really smart people who have been saying for years that the BA is in a micro bubble.
 
Yakoo752 said:
This is why immigration is so important to the US, we've stopped having babies... significantly
Click to expand...

So because fewer people are being born in an over populated area, we need to import more people, to continue the over population?
 
Yakoo752 said:
This is why immigration is so important to the US, we've stopped having babies... significantly
Click to expand...
No, intelligent people have put off having babies until they can afford to support them. And then only one or two....you know, a SUSTAINABLE number. Where are all the "Eco-Warriors" when it comes to the most basic and obvious stuff? A system that is built on endless growth....isn't that a "pyramid scheme"?
So yeah, immigration is important if you want to ruin everything for everyone.
Don't make me post a link to "Idiocracy".
Pardon me, just feeling a bit cranky this morning I suppose.:afm199
Now where did I put my flame suit?
 
Hey You! said:
No, intelligent people have put off having babies until they can afford to support them. And then only one or two....you know, a SUSTAINABLE number. Where are all the "Eco-Warriors" when it comes to the most basic and obvious stuff? A system that is built on endless growth....isn't that a "pyramid scheme"?
So yeah, immigration is important if you want to ruin everything for everyone.
Don't make me post a link to "Idiocracy".
Pardon me, just feeling a bit cranky this morning I suppose.:afm199
Now where did I put my flame suit?
Click to expand...

our market model is based on growth, without growth it fails

Since Americans have chosen for whatever reason not to have children and moreso not to have more then 2 children, our market model starts to fail were starting to show the failure

immigration is the key to ensure our population continues to grow. A solid immigration plan can controlled. On average we allow @ 1M immigrants in a year. There are tons of jobs that immigrants are willing to do that most American's refuse.

It's not a pyramid scheme. Do we have the space for more people? yes. Can we create sustainable population growth? why not. The US is 3x the size of the EU and has 1/2 the population.

Idiocracy is what happens when everyone stops everything.

I'm not seeing too much downside here.
 
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I chose to not have kids hence no real John Conner. Sorry about that.
 
CockyRooster said:
Here in Palo Alto the only real growth has been from Facebook coupled with foreign investors hiding their money in real estate soaking up housing. Potentially softening into a downturn? Sure. But the same house that was $250k 20 years ago is now $2.5m. Until you all stop having babies housing costs will only increase long term.
Click to expand...

CockyRooster said:
I chose to not have kids hence no real John Conner. Sorry about that.
Click to expand...

I just hate people!!! I just feel it's fashionable to say that. :x
 
Yakoo752 said:
our market model is based on growth, without growth it fails

Since Americans have chosen for whatever reason not to have children and moreso not to have more then 2 children, our market model starts to fail were starting to show the failure

immigration is the key to ensure our population continues to grow. A solid immigration plan can controlled. On average we allow @ 1M immigrants in a year. There are tons of jobs that immigrants are willing to do that most American's refuse.

It's not a pyramid scheme. Do we have the space for more people? yes. Can we create sustainable population growth? why not. The US is 3x the size of the EU and has 1/2 the population.

Idiocracy is what happens when everyone stops everything.

I'm not seeing too much downside here.
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm clear on our "model" being based on growth. I guess we just wear different Lenses when we view where that ultimately leads to.
I see it as a bad model...
Euro-comparisons..... will they ever end? If I was that enamored with "Euro-wherever" I'd move there. But I'm not, so those comparisons only serve as a warning. (Except...Scandinavian women :drool...but I'm married, so )
"There are tons of jobs that immigrants are willing to do that most American's refuse" :rolleyes Please let's not go there. I don't feel like writing a novel today.
 
Hey You! said:
I see it as a bad model...
Euro-comparisons..... will they ever end? If I was that enamored with "Euro-wherever" I'd move there. But I'm not, so those comparisons only serve as a warning. (Except...Scandinavian women :drool...but I'm married, so )
"There are tons of jobs that immigrants are willing to do that most American's refuse" :rolleyes Please let's not go there. I don't feel like writing a novel today.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree but it's not my decision to make. While I would love to see our model change, I don't see it happening in my lifetime.

I don't understand the opposition to comparisons? Should we compare ourselves to Mexico? Canada? Asia? I mean China has similar land and aquatic mass as the US, and they support a population 300x ours...

please write your novel. I'm sure I will learn something. But tossing out shit seeing what will stick isn't discourse.
 
:afm199Funny our first house in Sun Valley Idaho was like 30K and we signed one paper, it was 3 bdrm 2 bath all electric . but that was early 70's:afm199:afm199:afm199.
 
QUOTE=Yakoo752;9595627]I don't disagree but it's not my decision to make. While I would love to see our model change, I don't see it happening in my lifetime.

I don't understand the opposition to comparisons? Should we compare ourselves to Mexico? Canada? Asia? I mean China has similar land and aquatic mass as the US, and they support a population 300x ours...

please write your novel. I'm sure I will learn something. But tossing out shit seeing what will stick isn't discourse.[/QUOTE]
Wasn't trying to toss sticky shit....really.
When I look at our economic model, I look back at....appliances, for example. They used to last practically forever. Case in point: I still have a clothes washer that functions perfectly....it's 25 years old. I also just replaced one that was only five years old (catastrophic failure).
Planned obsolescence, I know. But appliance manufacturers need more and continued growth....The lions share of that manufacturing money goes right to the top, while keeping their stock shareholders happy.
Then we have "The Fed" keeping interest rates so low that there is nowhere to park your cash where you can get a return on it. Except for the stock market.....or loaning it to the .gov (treasury notes, bonds).....or buying overpriced real estate, if you are a true thrill-seeker who feels the first two options just aren't risky enough.
THEN, to make absolutely sure that everybody's money is steered towards/funneled into the "investments" they want you to make, the really big hammer comes out... Environmental laws. !!
Sung to the same tune as "for the children", these laws and regulations do exactly what they were intended to do.....throw a roadblock in front of anybody who dares try to invest their money in themselves or their community by trying to start a business (aside from coffee or beer:laughing).
Enough on that for now:)

Euro, Euro, Euro.
Over here in my neck of the woods we keep having these wonderful ideas foisted upon us, and the main selling point always seems to be:
They have it in Europe! Look how well it works in Europe!
Like traffic circles.
And Rail lines.
Fantastic ideas that work well. Just not here in Santa Cruz.
So I guess "Euro" is a "trigger" word for me...sorry about that:laughing

I'm afraid that's all the keyboard time I can take for one day, but I'll try to get back at it tomorrow for chapter two....tentative titles:
Ancient George Bush quotes ?
History of the Bracero program ?
(http://braceroarchive.org/about)

What's so fucked up about Mexico that ten percent of it's population has run away from home, and is it a reasonable idea to bring all our military home from the five overseas countries we're bombing into the stone age
so we can send them into Mexico to straighten their shit out to make it a safe place free of drug lords and political corruption so our Mexican friends who would really prefer to go home are able to? ?

Admittedly, the first two (potential) chapter titles are a bit lengthy, probably go with #3.
 
Hey You! said:
QUOTE=Yakoo752;9595627]I don't disagree but it's not my decision to make. While I would love to see our model change, I don't see it happening in my lifetime.

I don't understand the opposition to comparisons? Should we compare ourselves to Mexico? Canada? Asia? I mean China has similar land and aquatic mass as the US, and they support a population 300x ours...

please write your novel. I'm sure I will learn something. But tossing out shit seeing what will stick isn't discourse.
Click to expand...
Wasn't trying to toss sticky shit....really.
When I look at our economic model, I look back at....appliances, for example. They used to last practically forever. Case in point: I still have a clothes washer that functions perfectly....it's 25 years old. I also just replaced one that was only five years old (catastrophic failure).
Planned obsolescence, I know. But appliance manufacturers need more and continued growth....The lions share of that manufacturing money goes right to the top, while keeping their stock shareholders happy.
Then we have "The Fed" keeping interest rates so low that there is nowhere to park your cash where you can get a return on it. Except for the stock market.....or loaning it to the .gov (treasury notes, bonds).....or buying overpriced real estate, if you are a true thrill-seeker who feels the first two options just aren't risky enough.
THEN, to make absolutely sure that everybody's money is steered towards/funneled into the "investments" they want you to make, the really big hammer comes out... Environmental laws. !!
Sung to the same tune as "for the children", these laws and regulations do exactly what they were intended to do.....throw a roadblock in front of anybody who dares try to invest their money in themselves or their community by trying to start a business (aside from coffee or beer:laughing).
Enough on that for now:)

Euro, Euro, Euro.
Over here in my neck of the woods we keep having these wonderful ideas foisted upon us, and the main selling point always seems to be:
They have it in Europe! Look how well it works in Europe!
Like traffic circles.
And Rail lines.
Fantastic ideas that work well. Just not here in Santa Cruz.
So I guess "Euro" is a "trigger" word for me...sorry about that:laughing

I'm afraid that's all the keyboard time I can take for one day, but I'll try to get back at it tomorrow for chapter two....tentative titles:
Ancient George Bush quotes ?
History of the Bracero program ?
(http://braceroarchive.org/about)

What's so fucked up about Mexico that ten percent of it's population has run away from home, and is it a reasonable idea to bring all our military home from the five overseas countries we're bombing into the stone age
so we can send them into Mexico to straighten their shit out to make it a safe place free of drug lords and political corruption so our Mexican friends who would really prefer to go home are able to? ?

Admittedly, the first two (potential) chapter titles are a bit lengthy, probably go with #3.[/QUOTE]

fix dat quote
 
FWIW, I live in a newly-developed part of town (sprung up within the last 20 years) and it has a few roundabouts on the main streets. I routinely route through them because they're WAY more efficient than 4-way stops or lights, even though they're slightly out of the way. And they're fun on the moto when they're empty (think sweet S-turns in the middle of a normal city street).

We need more of them, IMO.
 
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