• There has been a recent cluster of spammers accessing BARFer accounts and posting spam. To safeguard your account, please consider changing your password. It would be even better to take the additional step of enabling 2 Factor Authentication (2FA) on your BARF account. Read more here.

Stock Thread 2018

afm199 said:
Good stuff. I like the 4% figure.

My lifestyle depends, pretty much, on my investment returns. I don't take more than 4%. If the portfolio income falls below that, too bad for me. As a rule, spending capital, as opposed to earnings, is a huge no no.
Click to expand...

YMMV, but I don't understand the "never touch capital" mindset. Unless leaving a sizable inheritance is central to your plan, why restrict your lifestyle?

There was a book written in the 90s called "Die Broke". While I don't agree with all of the philosophy the authors espoused, they did make one excellent point in planning: "Your last check should be written to the undertaker, and it should bounce."

Meaning, winning the game means living the lifestyle you want, neither running out of funds nor leaving millions.

My own philosophy is to use an initial withdrawal rate that results in a >95% success probability on regression calculators (like Firecalc) and Monte Carlo simulators, and be prepared to rein in spending during extreme down markets.
 
jt2 said:
There was a book written in the 90s called "Die Broke". While I don't agree with all of the philosophy the authors espoused, they did make one excellent point in planning: "Your last check should be written to the undertaker, and it should bounce."
Click to expand...

Would suck if you had timed it down to the exact day then some busybody doctor stumbled on a medical breakthrough that kept you alive for another decade.
 
jt2 said:
YMMV, but I don't understand the "never touch capital" mindset. Unless leaving a sizable inheritance is central to your plan, why restrict your lifestyle?

There was a book written in the 90s called "Die Broke". While I don't agree with all of the philosophy the authors espoused, they did make one excellent point in planning: "Your last check should be written to the undertaker, and it should bounce."

Meaning, winning the game means living the lifestyle you want, neither running out of funds nor leaving millions.

My own philosophy is to use an initial withdrawal rate that results in a >95% success probability on regression calculators (like Firecalc) and Monte Carlo simulators, and be prepared to rein in spending during extreme down markets.
Click to expand...

Because medicare does not pay anywhere near everything.

One whopping medical bill in your eighties or seventies and your life style turns to utter shit.

Winning the game doesn't exist. If you have a lifestyle that gives you some satisfaction, you're ahead of the game.

I think the question may be: "Have you ever been nasty ass totally broke, and do you want to experience it again?"
 
Last edited:
I started using Robinhood for the first time this month. Kinda fun, but I keep looking at it too much lol. Free trades and easy to use app. I *only* put in $1000 because gambling is fun but that's all I'm willing to lose, as it's a real possibility. Here are some stocks that I chose. My philosophy is try to pick industries I believe will have growth (marijuana related, medical breakthroughs) or that are kinda in the shitter (GE, Rite Aid).

I saw that Fidelity is letting you choose by trending industries now. One big one is artificial intelligence, so I might research some of those stocks soon.

GE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GE?p=GE
AbbVie: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABBV?p=ABBV
Scott's Miracle Gro: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMG?p=SMG
Rite Aid: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RAD?p=RAD
Texas Instruments: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN?p=TXN
Sangamo: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SGMO?p=SGMO
Marijuana ETF: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MJX?p=MJX
 
GE is under SEC investigation, for me thats a reason to stay away until there some evidence of a turnaround.

Gonna take a gamble on Applied Materials and maybe a sprinkling of United Technologies.


;
 
Last edited:
afm199 said:
Because medicare does not pay anywhere near everything.

One whopping medical bill in your eighties or seventies and your life style turns to utter shit.

Winning the game doesn't exist. If you have a lifestyle that gives you some satisfaction, you're ahead of the game.

I think the question may be: "Have you ever been nasty ass totally broke, and do you want to experience it again?"
Click to expand...

wisdom right there
:thumbup
 
afm199 said:
Because medicare does not pay anywhere near everything.

One whopping medical bill in your eighties or seventies and your life style turns to utter shit.

Winning the game doesn't exist. If you have a lifestyle that gives you some satisfaction, you're ahead of the game.

I think the question may be: "Have you ever been nasty ass totally broke, and do you want to experience it again?"
Click to expand...

I'm not saying you shouldn't have a buffer or reserves. I just question the "never touch principal" notion, that's all. The "die broke" thing was tongue in cheek.

With proper insurance, a whopping medical bill is not a risk.
 
jt2 said:
I'm not saying you shouldn't have a buffer or reserves. I just question the "never touch principal" notion, that's all. The "die broke" thing was tongue in cheek.

With proper insurance, a whopping medical bill is not a risk.
Click to expand...



I think you may need to re-image your idea of "proper medical insurance" and do some research on what happens to premiums when you reach your sixties, much less your seventies.

Barring some extraordinary circumstance, you will be facing Medicare with part C advantage as a retirement option. I won't discuss the other options, this would be a normal circumstance.

Medicare Advantage programs are NOT the same as the normal full boat programs. An operation that would normally be covered without question, let's say knee replacement, is not covered until "medically desirable" or some horseshit like that. What that means is (from my Orthopod) "When you can't walk a block, come back and we will replace the knee.

I suspect you don't have a working knowledge of the issues of elders and insurance. Things go wrong. Rapidly . Medicare pays minimal payments, and so health plans simply tighten up expenditures. At Kaiser, before I went to Medicare, I could get my knee scoped any time I wanted, basically. Now, it's a laborious process that takes months and may not be done.

Now if you can afford premiums and don't use Medicare, great. But those premiums are going to be several thousand a month for a single person.

You may discover that what you imagine to be comprehensive and complete treatment is nothing of the kind. I may end up going to Dr. Ting for ankle surgery. Why? Because I can pay and have it done. With Kaiser, it might be two years before I get the system to approve it. When you're my age, 2 years is a significant portion of my remaining life span.

:thumbup

I think what I want to say is that you can't retire with too much money. Spending lavishly as a younger person is great fun, but it may not be the best preparation for the future.
 
Last edited:
afm199 said:
I think you may need to re-image your idea of "proper medical insurance" and do some research on what happens to premiums when you reach your sixties, much less your seventies.
Click to expand...

Oh, I have. :thumbup I appreciate the sentiment, and the input. But, likely because I've not shared too many personal details, I think you have made assumptions about my age and financial circumstances that may not be correct.

Barring some extraordinary circumstance, you will be facing Medicare with part C advantage as a retirement option. I won't discuss the other options, this would be a normal circumstance.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't assume that. I'm not too keen on Medicare in part for the reasons you cite. For my part, I've set up spending models that include both long-term care insurance and "Platinum" zero-deductible plans. For a 75 year old in a high usage plan, Kaiser is $1250, while Blue Shield is about $2100.

Yep, it is a lot. But not a deal-breaker if you plan right. And I have. :)

I suspect you don't have a working knowledge of the issues of elders and insurance.
Click to expand...

I do wish that were true. :nchantr

I think what I want to say is that you can't retire with too much money. Spending lavishly as a younger person is great fun, but it may not be the best preparation for the future.
Click to expand...

I don't think we're actually that far apart on that point. In fact, I think we just differ on how we choose to hedge bets. Not saving enough can be tragic. But so is working yourself into an early grave to build a nest egg that is far more than you need.
 
jt2 said:
Oh, I have. :thumbup I appreciate the sentiment, and the input. But, likely because I've not shared too many personal details, I think you have made assumptions about my age and financial circumstances that may not be correct.



I wouldn't assume that. I'm not too keen on Medicare in part for the reasons you cite. For my part, I've set up spending models that include both long-term care insurance and "Platinum" zero-deductible plans. For a 75 year old in a high usage plan, Kaiser is $1250, while Blue Shield is about $2100.

Yep, it is a lot. But not a deal-breaker if you plan right. And I have. :)



I do wish that were true. :nchantr



I don't think we're actually that far apart on that point. In fact, I think we just differ on how we choose to hedge bets. Not saving enough can be tragic. But so is working yourself into an early grave to build a nest egg that is far more than you need.
Click to expand...

Gotcha! Thanks. Damn you're old

I'll modify my statement to the premise that for the average guy, having too much money in retirement is not going to be a problem.
 
Just a funny anecdote for the group.

My Father-In-Law worked for PacBell for 30 years and has been retired for 30 years. He has been retired since I met him 20 years ago this August. His wife, my late Mother in Law, has a semi-large Ice Cream/Milk Processing company in her family. When she passed as a founding family member her equity in the company was bought out as my FIL is not a "blood family member" and couldn't be an "owner".

He has amassed quite a wealth. Of course, he is in his early 80s now and lives the same life he has for the last 20 years. He plays on the internet, does Geneology, and watches NASCAR. He is generous during the holidays and with his two daughters and grandkids, and now even great-grand kid.

But what used to be considered his "entertainment" budget in his 50s and 60s is now his medical budget. He goes to all kinds of doctors and he chats up the nurses and visits the docs like they are friends. He has had the same ones for so long they know him well.

When he passes his daughters will have an inheritance that they will probably divide into trusts for their kids as they have both done ok for themselves and the inheritance won't change their livelihoods.

I sometimes wish he would blow all his money to go see something he's never seen, or experience something he's always wanted, but he's happy staying at home and watching nascar on tv.

I guess the point is, finding a life that you can be happy living the day-to-day is more important than trying to figure out how to afford it. Yes, medical costs are going to get more expensive, but living expenses should go down. Instead of paying a $3,400 mortgage every month you can pay $1,500 a month on insurance. You won't be going out to bars and doing fancy cruises because you won't like the loud noises. :laughing

Be happy with life, not with what you can accumulate. Even homeless people can smile and laugh.

My estranged wife would give every penny of inheritance for more time with her dad, because that's what is valuable. Don't give up your able-bodiness so you are more comfortable when you can't move.
 
I'll say it again. Most people aren't going to have the problem of too much wealth. Statistically, it's a very small cohort.
 
SteelerFanatic said:
Just a funny anecdote for the group.

My Father-In-Law worked for PacBell for 30 years and has been retired for 30 years. He has been retired since I met him 20 years ago this August. His wife, my late Mother in Law, has a semi-large Ice Cream/Milk Processing company in her family. When she passed as a founding family member her equity in the company was bought out as my FIL is not a "blood family member" and couldn't be an "owner".

He has amassed quite a wealth. Of course, he is in his early 80s now and lives the same life he has for the last 20 years. He plays on the internet, does Geneology, and watches NASCAR. He is generous during the holidays and with his two daughters and grandkids, and now even great-grand kid.

But what used to be considered his "entertainment" budget in his 50s and 60s is now his medical budget. He goes to all kinds of doctors and he chats up the nurses and visits the docs like they are friends. He has had the same ones for so long they know him well.

When he passes his daughters will have an inheritance that they will probably divide into trusts for their kids as they have both done ok for themselves and the inheritance won't change their livelihoods.

I sometimes wish he would blow all his money to go see something he's never seen, or experience something he's always wanted, but he's happy staying at home and watching nascar on tv.

I guess the point is, finding a life that you can be happy living the day-to-day is more important than trying to figure out how to afford it. Yes, medical costs are going to get more expensive, but living expenses should go down. Instead of paying a $3,400 mortgage every month you can pay $1,500 a month on insurance. You won't be going out to bars and doing fancy cruises because you won't like the loud noises. :laughing

Be happy with life, not with what you can accumulate. Even homeless people can smile and laugh.

My estranged wife would give every penny of inheritance for more time with her dad, because that's what is valuable. Don't give up your able-bodiness so you are more comfortable when you can't move.
Click to expand...

This. :thumbup
 
I’d like to thank Jeff and Ernie for their input in this thread and just want to say that their advice has not fallen on deaf ears. Selective hearing according to my wife, but I hear both of you :laughing
 
Get ready for a stock correction. Triple digit loss yesterday and another 362 down today. Beware if this volatility continues over the next few weeks there will be pain for a long time. I sold my equities months ago in anticipation of this. I'll hold cash until I think there is a bottom. Right now is NOT the time to put money into stocks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top