Stock Thread 2018

[Smash Allen]

I won't detail exactly what I do because I wouldn't be able to effectively over the internet. What I will say is that in 1998 I had nothing but the clothes I was wearing. Today I have a fantastic house in the hills that I owe 300k on (it's worth roughly 1.3 million, gold, silver, great career, wonderful wife, two boys, and a few hundred grand waiting to be reinvested when I see the opportunity. Small amount of equities that pay dividends. So I would say that I have out performed all of the indexes. There is actually more that I prefer to keep to myself but you get the gist. Oh and I'm just a construction worker.

so 30 year pension with 12k a month take home for life?

 

[panthera]

Hahaha. Not yet I'm trying to wait 10 more years.

 

[rodr]

Just did my max IRA contributions for 2017 and 2018 and used the money to buy more FGD. It's been getting a 4% yield and will have another quarterly dividend next month. Was down over 2% today.

I won't detail exactly what I do because I wouldn't be able to effectively over the internet. What I will say is that in 1998 I had nothing but the clothes I was wearing. Today I have a fantastic house in the hills that I owe 300k on (it's worth roughly 1.3 million, gold, silver, great career, wonderful wife, two boys, and a few hundred grand waiting to be reinvested when I see the opportunity. Small amount of equities that pay dividends. So I would say that I have out performed all of the indexes. There is actually more that I prefer to keep to myself but you get the gist. Oh and I'm just a construction worker.
Edit: I almost forgot my crypto holdings!

Awesome! But how did your market returns compare with the SP5?

 

[panthera]

Holy shit 600 down on the Dow.

Rodr- not really sure without doing the math. I worked and saved about 1k and started all that I have with that

 

[Schnellbandit]

A 5000 point runup in only 6 months would have been a indication to wait for a pullback.
I don't see why it couldn't go down a couple of thousand points before continuing with the upward climb.

There will be some corrections imo but no radical dumps, the economy is just getting started and outside the bubble of political grandstanding and blame games, people are working, pay is going up, bonuses are helping everyday folks along with some extra money from the tax breaks and there is huge upside.

Yeah, the doom and gloom hate of the administration is there but really its localized to certain areas where an opposition rests.

Markets could triple and there would always be those complaining about something, let em.

Stocks are on sale now and maybe continue for a short time and then the smoldering fire will light up again and its going to leave quite a few behind wondering what happened.

AI is about to hit the market in a serious way for tech and a whole new slew of hardware and software applications will become available. A whole new market for cars is just below the surface too and the price points will be in the range that works for middle income customers.

Put the politics out of sight (tough for some to do, its their lives) and the economy is primed. This comes around every so often and missing out this time means another 20 year wait. IMO of course

 

[rodr]

Whee. I shoulda waited til just before close to buy that FGD. Dow is down 669 now.

 

[Reli]

It's easy to beat the indexes for 1,2,3 years......but over 20-30 years, no. If it were, then most actively managed funds would outperform the indexes, since they are managed by professional analysts and traders whose jobs depend partly on their performance. But the truth is that most actively managed funds actually underperform the S&P500 over the long run.

 

[Removed 3]

It's easy to beat the indexes for 1,2,3 years......but over 20-30 years, no. If it were, then most actively managed funds would outperform the indexes, since they are managed by professional analysts and traders whose jobs depend partly on their performance. But the truth is that most actively managed funds actually underperform the S&P500 over the long run.

yup


http://fortune.com/2017/04/13/stock-indexes-beat-mutual-funds/



"More than six in 10 actively managed stock funds were outperformed by their market benchmarks in 2016, according to the S&P Indices Versus Active funds scorecard. Large-cap funds failed to keep up with the S&P 500 66% of the time, while mid- and small-cap funds were outperformed by their benchmarks 89.3% and 85.5% of the time, respectively.

As bad as those numbers are, they only get worse over longer timelines. The overwhelming majority of all domestic funds were outperformed by their benchmarks over 1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals that ended December 2016.

Over the longest span, the numbers were particularly brutal. The S&P 500 outperformed more than 92% of large-cap funds over the last 15 years. Mid- and small-cap funds fared no better over the time period, with their benchmarks besting them 95.4% and 93.2% of the time, respectively. Overall, 82.2% of all active funds were outperformed over the 15-year period. "

 

[redruM]

I've never had a reason to look into alternatives to keeping retirement savings in my 401(k) at my current employer because a wide variety of funds are there for us to choose from ... can one just transfer your 401(k) balance to a low commission broker (like Vanguard or Fidelity) of your choice without penalty while staying with the current employer offering the 401(k) plan?

The answer to your question is yes.

Like I did with my wife's 401k, you should be able to request your plan administrator to turn your 401k account into a Self-directed brokerage account with Fidelity or similar. This would afford you the significant benefit of being able to put your funds into whatever you wish - individual stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, whatever - not just the mediocre-at-best mutual funds your plan offers.

Your plan admin will still charge fees, but at least you have the latitude to invest your hard-earned money as you please - limited only to the scope of your brokerage account. Of course, being in full control of one's investments means you will have full responsibility for your choices. So, it's not for everyone... only those who wish to take their financial future in their own hands.

Personally, I recommend everyone do this - but the reality is, most people are lazy and prefer "set it and forget it".

 

[redruM]

yup


http://fortune.com/2017/04/13/stock-indexes-beat-mutual-funds/



"More than six in 10 actively managed stock funds were outperformed by their market benchmarks in 2016, according to the S&P Indices Versus Active funds scorecard. Large-cap funds failed to keep up with the S&P 500 66% of the time, while mid- and small-cap funds were outperformed by their benchmarks 89.3% and 85.5% of the time, respectively.

As bad as those numbers are, they only get worse over longer timelines. The overwhelming majority of all domestic funds were outperformed by their benchmarks over 1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals that ended December 2016.

Over the longest span, the numbers were particularly brutal. The S&P 500 outperformed more than 92% of large-cap funds over the last 15 years. Mid- and small-cap funds fared no better over the time period, with their benchmarks besting them 95.4% and 93.2% of the time, respectively. Overall, 82.2% of all active funds were outperformed over the 15-year period. "

The problem is - if you dig beneath the surface - one should come to the conclusion that the next 20-30 years will likely look nothing like the last 20-30 years.

Things stay the same until they don't.

 

[zanshin]

There will be some corrections imo but no radical dumps, the economy is just getting started and outside the bubble of political grandstanding and blame games, people are working, pay is going up, bonuses are helping everyday folks along with some extra money from the tax breaks and there is huge upside.

Yeah, the doom and gloom hate of the administration is there but really its localized to certain areas where an opposition rests.

Markets could triple and there would always be those complaining about something, let em.

Stocks are on sale now and maybe continue for a short time and then the smoldering fire will light up again and its going to leave quite a few behind wondering what happened.

AI is about to hit the market in a serious way for tech and a whole new slew of hardware and software applications will become available. A whole new market for cars is just below the surface too and the price points will be in the range that works for middle income customers.

Put the politics out of sight (tough for some to do, its their lives) and the economy is primed. This comes around every so often and missing out this time means another 20 year wait. IMO of course

I disagree categorically.

IMO, the so-called "recovery" is nothing but debt monetization that pushed up asset prices.

The same metrics Trump was calling cooked and fake on the campaign trail, he is now citing as evidence of economic strength.

The top in bonds was back in September. Bonds have been trying to sell off since then, but this has been partly contained by Fed buying (because no one else will buy that never-to-be-repaid turd).

On the eve of the SOTU and memo release, bond buying stopped. Very interesting timing. And it's been a shit-show ever since.

The central question is this: did the banking cabal, which was all-in for Clinton, just move to protect the deep state from Trump's investigative pressure, and to turn the mid-term elections into a Demo landslide by imploding the bubbles?

If the banksters keep buying all the bonds, DJIA can go to the moon. Venezuelan stocks were doing very well in nominal terms.

If the banksters reduce their bond buying, we will have a pan-asset implosion in real and nominal terms. The only thing propping up these prices was monetization.

If they have decided that Trump now owns this economy and it's time to f*ck him up, next stop DJIA 18000. I would have expected this closer to the elections, but perhaps the bright lights hitting the swamp cockroaches stepped up that timetable.

If something else is going on, then who knows. My long portfolio is bleeding badly, but the hedge made over 80% just today, and that's week one. It's game on, going to be a hell of a ride. I am hoping for a rebound to ditch my longs.

The long 401k/IRA peeps, I am sorry to say, you have been penned in like cattle by the investment products your retirement account providers offer, and this is of course by design. The Street needs vast numbers of paralyzed bagholders while they short this all the way down. Prepare to get fleeced, as always. Wealth flows to the 0.001%, and this time is no different. It is never different.

Even if this market turns around for now, there are very compelling reasons why the bull will not survive until 2019. Shorts will "pwn like a baws" before the year is done.

 

[Blankpage]

Jesus Christ man you're scaring the children

BTW you some kind of scientist or somthin?

 

[redruM]

I disagree categorically.

IMO, the so-called "recovery" is nothing but debt monetization that pushed up asset prices.

The same metrics Trump was calling cooked and fake on the campaign trail, he is now citing as evidence of economic strength.

The top in bonds was back in September. Bonds have been trying to sell off since then, but this has been partly contained by Fed buying (because no one else will buy that never-to-be-repaid turd).

On the eve of the SOTU and memo release, bond buying stopped. Very interesting timing. And it's been a shit-show ever since.

The central question is this: did the banking cabal, which was all-in for Clinton, just move to protect the deep state from Trump's investigative pressure, and to turn the mid-term elections into a Demo landslide by imploding the bubbles?

If the banksters keep buying all the bonds, DJIA can go to the moon. Venezuelan stocks were doing very well in nominal terms.

If the banksters reduce their bond buying, we will have a pan-asset implosion in real and nominal terms. The only thing propping up these prices was monetization.

If they have decided that Trump now owns this economy and it's time to f*ck him up, next stop DJIA 18000. I would have expected this closer to the elections, but perhaps the bright lights hitting the swamp cockroaches stepped up that timetable.

If something else is going on, then who knows. My long portfolio is bleeding badly, but the hedge made over 80% just today, and that's week one. It's game on, going to be a hell of a ride. I am hoping for a rebound to ditch my longs.

The long 401k/IRA peeps, I am sorry to say, you have been penned in like cattle by the investment products your retirement account providers offer, and this is of course by design. The Street needs vast numbers of paralyzed bagholders while they short this all the way down. Prepare to get fleeced, as always. Wealth flows to the 0.001%, and this time is no different. It is never different.

Even if this market turns around for now, there are very compelling reasons why the bull will not survive until 2019. Shorts will "pwn like a baws" before the year is done.

None of this can possibly be true.

I know this because no commentators, journalists or gurus I know of mention any of this shit. Everything boils down to left-right politics, and administrations, and foreign boogeyman and such as.

Maybe when CNBC, CNN, WSJ, The Economist and the rest of the "real" media outlets begin to discuss and corroborate your wacko claims, I'll consider it.

Until then... how DARE you call all this exuberance irrational!



Heh that was fun.

 

[scratchpad]

OK so, if your investments looked like this WWYD?

stocks 92%
bonds 8%

RSP Int 34%
RSP Large 24%
RSP small 16%
RSP US 11%
RSP bond 8%
Company stock 5%

Years ago i had one of the target date funds and it performed ok. 4 years ago i changed to a third party company within the plan that "manages" it and this is what i have. Ive had the set it and forget it mindset up until reading this thread. Didnt have any investments pre 08' so i havnt experienced a major hit yet and dont want to.
Most of the stuff some of you are talking about is beyond my understanding and giving me a headache trying to understand.

 

[Reli]

What is RSP? Retirement Savings Plan? What's the ticker symbol or the name of the company that created each of those funds?

BTW, if a third party is "managing" your portfolio, they're taking fees.... do you know what those are?

 

[UDRider]

I disagree categorically.

IMO, the so-called "recovery" is nothing but debt monetization that pushed up asset prices.

The same metrics Trump was calling cooked and fake on the campaign trail, he is now citing as evidence of economic strength.

The top in bonds was back in September. Bonds have been trying to sell off since then, but this has been partly contained by Fed buying (because no one else will buy that never-to-be-repaid turd).

On the eve of the SOTU and memo release, bond buying stopped. Very interesting timing. And it's been a shit-show ever since.

The central question is this: did the banking cabal, which was all-in for Clinton, just move to protect the deep state from Trump's investigative pressure, and to turn the mid-term elections into a Demo landslide by imploding the bubbles?

If the banksters keep buying all the bonds, DJIA can go to the moon. Venezuelan stocks were doing very well in nominal terms.

If the banksters reduce their bond buying, we will have a pan-asset implosion in real and nominal terms. The only thing propping up these prices was monetization.

If they have decided that Trump now owns this economy and it's time to f*ck him up, next stop DJIA 18000. I would have expected this closer to the elections, but perhaps the bright lights hitting the swamp cockroaches stepped up that timetable.

If something else is going on, then who knows. My long portfolio is bleeding badly, but the hedge made over 80% just today, and that's week one. It's game on, going to be a hell of a ride. I am hoping for a rebound to ditch my longs.

The long 401k/IRA peeps, I am sorry to say, you have been penned in like cattle by the investment products your retirement account providers offer, and this is of course by design. The Street needs vast numbers of paralyzed bagholders while they short this all the way down. Prepare to get fleeced, as always. Wealth flows to the 0.001%, and this time is no different. It is never different.

Even if this market turns around for now, there are very compelling reasons why the bull will not survive until 2019. Shorts will "pwn like a baws" before the year is done.

To be fair Fed has been slowly stop buying bonds and at the end of last year said they will stop this year. So not like it's a surprise they stopped. Still will be interesting to see what will happen.
As for 401k yeah it's total bullshit with limited funds you can buy and some/most a high fee.

 

[scratchpad]

What is RSP? Retirement Savings Plan? What's the ticker symbol or the name of the company that created each of those funds?

BTW, if a third party is "managing" your portfolio, they're taking fees.... do you know what those are?

Yes, retirement savings plan. Fidelity?

.07, .013, .052, .052, .062, .0074

 

[Removed 3]

The Fed's job is to manipulate interest rates to control inflation by buying and selling bonds. It was buying bonds a while back to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. There is no doomsday scenario coming into play.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/monetary-policy-recession.asp


Inflation goes up, rates go up, bond prices go down, total value of bond holdings go down. I can see the point of bond holders not buying more Treasury bonds or selling their Treasury bonds now because the good streak is coming to an end.


Anyone who gives a narrative about a dooming economy and trying to scare working stiffs who are just socking away their savings and finding their own rational way to grow it just wants their 15 mins of fame.



redruM said in a few posts earlier (#369) said that "you should be able to request your plan administrator to turn your 401k account into a Self-directed brokerage account with Fidelity or similar". So no, you are not stuck with the limited choices in the 401(k) plan your employer is offering. I heard that gov't employees have the lousiest choices in their plans.

 

[scratchpad]

redruM said in a few posts earlier (#369) said that "you should be able to request your plan administrator to turn your 401k account into a Self-directed brokerage account with Fidelity or similar". So no, you are not stuck with the limited choices in the 401(k) plan your employer is offering. I heard that gov't employees have the lousiest choices in their plans.

It appears i can transfer to a self directed account with Fidelity. Not sure thats a wise choice for me as i have no clue about this stuff.

 

[Removed 3]

It appears i can transfer to a self directed account with Fidelity. Not sure thats a wise choice for me as i have no clue about this stuff.

Nobody wants to take a hit.

You know yourself, that's a good thing. There's nothing wrong with the asset allocation you posted and they're not gouging you on the fees. Having that diversification will serve you well. For example, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average index is mentioned in the news, they're referring to the tracking of large American companies. The fact that you have a good portion in International funds balances out your risk.

This thread is a good if you want to know what others are investing in, but unless any barfer is a certified financial planner, you shouldn't take any of it as advice to heart. You should consult a financial adviser and pay for his/her time to give you objective professional advice of your portfolio based on your goals and tolerance for risk.