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Stock Thread 2018

There's no limit to what you can lose when shorting. Inverse shorts are almost a guarantee that you will lose money if you try and hold more than a few days or weeks.
 
I did a big sell off recently to get ready for a big real estate deal. Hopefully I will have the timing works out.
 
Blankpage said:
Which side is the winning side? It doesn't look that obvious to me.



Simmer down and maybe try to stretch that over a 5 or 10 year plan.

The masses wanting to be rich overnight has given us the bubbles in the market and RE and bitcoin.
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Mine is the day trading and swing trading game, so I'm looking at trends to bias the subsequent riding of volatility. This looks to be a high volatility year, so I am aiming to step up the game -- more leverage, larger positions, a purely option portfolio.

As to the winning side, that is the good multi-trillion dollar question.

The several asset bubbles are pressurized by central bank generated liquidity. Absent that liquidity, down they go. Present the central bank support, and nominal gains can continue at the expense of the dollar, economic fundamentals be damned.

Which way will the serial blowers of ever-larger bubbles banking power elite take this? That's the way it will go.

The winning side is the agile side -- nose to the wind, powder in reserve, leverage at the ready.

As far as biasing the strategy, my thesis is that the underlying economic fundamentals are poor, P/E is in the stratosphere, political pressure on Trump is immense and the swamp would love a crisis before the election. Add to that the stated central bank "tightening" guidance, the record-breaking length of this "recovery" cycle, and yeah, I would say a down move is much more probable.

And yet, the banksters can declare that they misread the situation, that more QE is needed, and keep on pumping to the upside. It's a hell of a system, the Cosa Nostra has nothing on that 1913-installed cabal.
 
Blankpage said:
There's no limit to what you can lose when shorting. Inverse shorts are almost a guarantee that you will lose money if you try and hold more than a few days or weeks.
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So true. There is a word anyone shorting should understand beyond question. That word is:

Everything.
 
AwakeNAlive said:
earnings before taxes, huh? well my ignorance led me to believe that lower corporate tax expense would make reported earnings higher immediately. that knocks my optimism down by a few notches then.

re: #455
capital expenditures do not show up on the income statement as expenses as a one time hit. the cost of assets are amortized over time (e.g., booked under depreciation expense)
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What I mean is that EBITDA is a *different* way of measuring earnings. Normal earnings reporting is after taxes.
 
there's something to be said about the fact that student loans are not discharged under bankruptcy
 
afm199 said:
And yet the stock market has driven the US to the position of the number one economic power in the world and kept it there for many decades.

I wouldn't bail out and bet against the monster too heavily. When you stand in front of a slowing steam roller, it only take being wrong by two feet to get flattened. :laughing
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The US was once a strong producer, a creditor nation with a real currency.

Now it is the largest debtor in world history, a hollowed out, increasingly unstable banker-run corpse foisting limitless green paper on the world at gunpoint in exchange for goods and petroleum.

The external politics of the US are, and have been for a long time, those of military and economic hyper-aggression, corruption, exploitation, assassination, "regime change", and genocidal war crimes. I can think of no other nation in relative modernity, that has done so much damage in the world, as has the US.

But yes, the exploitative elites here live well, the cattle are semi-content with the EBT, and the roads (save in San Francisco) have fewer potholes than in the dozen countries we have helped to destroy in recent decades.

To circle back to the "stock market -> economic stronk" thesis, please forgive me for being less than entirely convinced, although I appreciate the crystalline truthiness of the otherwise compellingly one-dimensional construct.

I will file that away next to the, "But.. but.. they hate us for our free-dumb!" mantra, which basically completes the economic and geopolitical educational arsenal of the typical American adult.
 
zanshin said:
The US was once a strong producer, a creditor nation with a real currency.

Now it is the largest debtor in world history, a hollowed out, increasingly unstable banker-run corpse foisting limitless green paper on the world at gunpoint in exchange for goods and petroleum.

The external politics of the US are, and have been for a long time, those of military and economic hyper-aggression, corruption, exploitation, assassination, "regime change", and genocidal war crimes. I can think of no other nation in relative modernity, that has done so much damage in the world, as has the US.

But yes, the exploitative elites here live well, the cattle are semi-content with the EBT, and the roads (save in San Francisco) have fewer potholes than in the dozen countries we have helped to destroy in recent decades.

To circle back to the "stock market -> economic stronk" thesis, please forgive me for being less than entirely convinced, although I appreciate the crystalline truthiness of the otherwise compellingly one-dimensional construct.

I will file that away next to the, "But.. but.. they hate us for our free-dumb!" mantra, which basically completes the economic and geopolitical educational arsenal of the typical American adult.
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Bravo! Author! Author!


O. yeah. This is a stock thread, not a political thread. Please take this to the political subforum and address it there.
 
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zanshin said:
The US was once a strong producer, a creditor nation with a real currency.

Now it is the largest debtor in world history, a hollowed out, increasingly unstable banker-run corpse foisting limitless green paper on the world at gunpoint in exchange for goods and petroleum.

The external politics of the US are, and have been for a long time, those of military and economic hyper-aggression, corruption, exploitation, assassination, "regime change", and genocidal war crimes. I can think of no other nation in relative modernity, that has done so much damage in the world, as has the US.

But yes, the exploitative elites here live well, the cattle are semi-content with the EBT, and the roads (save in San Francisco) have fewer potholes than in the dozen countries we have helped to destroy in recent decades.

To circle back to the "stock market -> economic stronk" thesis, please forgive me for being less than entirely convinced, although I appreciate the crystalline truthiness of the otherwise compellingly one-dimensional construct.

I will file that away next to the, "But.. but.. they hate us for our free-dumb!" mantra, which basically completes the economic and geopolitical educational arsenal of the typical American adult.
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Hmm, the US isn't importing nearly as much oil as it used to (percentage of need vs market making) and if we stopped importing it altogether we'd manage. Now, would those countries gladly selling it to us find another market and continue without drying up and blowing away? Unlikely.

So, if the US goes the way of so many demands just where is everyone going to sell the oil we import? The EU?:laughing

Oil stocks are another way for anyone to participate and increase their wealth unless all wealth is now bad too.

The stock market is a great place for almost anyone to own parts of companies and find profit themselves at the same time.

You can either participate in the stock market or complain about it. If you decide to complain about it then accept and be satisfied with what you do not have instead of wanting what others have.

Remember, in the USA you can just work the fields to provide a subsistence living for yourself. In that way you aren't contributing to all that horrible stuff.
 
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As expected, the sheep all listened to the talking heads on the TV last night saying how this was a 'correction' and a great buying opportunity, and they rushed in to buy equities and bid the market back up. Tulip mania is alive and well.

I was watching TV last night and all I could think of was that I wish that they would replay that lunch scene with Matthew McConaughy from Wolf of Wall Street.
 
900ss said:
I posted this in the Bitcoin thread a while back, it is an interesting read.
View attachment 504692
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If youre trying to maintain a % balance between funds, like he suggests, is their a certain time of year thats generally best to rebalance?

My company match is provided in stock. I want no part it. I think the money would be better served elsewhere. Best to reallocate every month or once a year?
 
2strokeYardSale said:
Apparently I'm over-invested in large cap growth stocks and I need to diversify into some kind of value stocks.
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IMO, growth versus value isn't something the average investor needs to worry about. To say "I should shift into value now instead of growth" is essentially market timing, which isn't recommended unless you constantly keep up on the news and you're comfortable with the risk you're taking.

Just buy a total market index fund, you're getting both growth and value stocks anyway.
 
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