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Stock Thread 2018

Methinks another correction is on the way although what we had was just a flash.

The volatility is welcome though, better to have small quakes than a monster. There was too complacency in the market, too many expectations of nice smooth moves up and down.
 
Just learned a friend that is an analyst removed 80% of his 401k the day before both of the 1000 point drops. He says something is coming. This is a very grounded analytical guy. He has never done this before. I dont know of anyone else that has liquidated 80% of their 401k before. Hes in his 30's so should have a little appetite for risk, its not like hes retiring any time soon.
 
What he said was he sold 80% into cash. He wouldn't say that unless he did it. Time will tell if he did the right thing. He is responsible for taking companies public so he's no small fish and he's a brilliant analyst. He doesn't really care about last weeks loss. It's what's coming that concerns him.
 
panthera said:
What he said was he sold 80% into cash. He wouldn't say that unless he did it. Time will tell if he did the right thing. He is responsible for taking companies public so he's no small fish and he's a brilliant analyst. He doesn't really care about last weeks loss. It's what's coming that concerns him.
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You can keep cash in most 401K's. Fixed account, I did this when I retired. not 80% but more than 50% so I sleep well at night. :cool
 
Picked up some F and GE today. Both pretty beaten down.


(Edit, if the market doesn't crash and the world come to an end.)
 
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E.HONDA said:
Can anyone recommend a good book on shorting? I have some small experience but not enough.
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There are two basic methods. Sell a stock short. This means, through a broker, you borrow shares from someone, and pay them back in the future. If they go up, you have to buy them at the up price and pay them back, losing money. If the price goes down, you buy them at the lower price, return them, and make money. You can lose a lot of money this way.

Use derivatives. Sell covered options, buy puts. There is a time premium here.
You pay for it.

Buy derivative based ETFs, such as FAZ. (Triple loaded) Again an easy way to make or lose a bunch of money.
 
panthera said:
What he said was he sold 80% into cash. He wouldn't say that unless he did it. Time will tell if he did the right thing. He is responsible for taking companies public so he's no small fish and he's a brilliant analyst. He doesn't really care about last weeks loss. It's what's coming that concerns him.
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Will see if he is right on whatever bad think he sees coming
 
JP Morgan is getting ahead of the "Don't blame us your 401k tanked" bus:

Important information regarding market volatility
In light of recent market volatility, remember that your retirement plan is intended for long-term investment. Attempts to time the market are rarely successful. One way to manage risk over time is to ensure you have a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced through up-and-down markets. Keep your individual needs, goals and time horizon in mind and consult with your financial adviser if needed. It is important to note diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit and do not protect against loss in declining markets.
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That was on my 401k page this morning when I looked
 
I guess it's better than a blinking RED message that says:

BUY NOW! Prices historically low! More bang for your buck!

:laughing
 
if i had an analyst friend who shared that he transferred 80% of his 401(k) account balance to cash and did not disclose what economic indicators or risk he sees in the near future that spooked him, i would respond, what kind of friend are you, to not disclose an overview of your analysis and forecast (like, don't keep me hanging, mannnn )

Inflation? Near full employment pushing up wages? weaker dollar? something about technology sector? P/E ratios? What are the makings of the perfect storm that's a come'n? Nothin like that huh? purdy strange ...
 
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AwakeNAlive said:
if i had an analyst friend who shared that he transferred 80% of his 401(k) account balance to cash and did not disclose what economic indicators or risk he sees in the near future that spooked him, i would respond, what kind of friend are you, to not disclose an overview of your analysis and forecast (like, don't keep me hanging, mannnn )

Inflation? Near full employment pushing up wages? weaker dollar? something about technology sector? P/E ratios? What are the makings of the perfect storm that's a come'n? Nothin like that huh? purdy strange ...
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Good point. There are some reasons to be cautious, but little to justify panic selling.
 
AwakeNAlive said:
Inflation? Near full employment pushing up wages? weaker dollar? something about technology sector? P/E ratios? What are the makings of the perfect storm that's a come'n? Nothin like that huh? purdy strange ...
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If you had a good analyst friend who expressed dire concern over the same "makings of a perfect storm" which several less popular BARFers have iterated in this thread and elsewhere (for years) - would you just ignore and label your friend a "doom & gloomer"? or would you finally start considering alternate ways of perceiving the world around you.
 
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