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Stock Thread 2018

How would any joe blow online know whether any one particular company is a good buy or not. There so many behind the scene variables that even for insiders its still a guess.
Its a gamble no matter what but if you want to play you have take a risk. I try to go with analysts who have a good track record with the sectors they cover. And not just a particular company but I also bet on the CEO. The turnaround guys.
 
900ss said:
I've been eyeing Bloom Energy but haven't bought yet. We prototyped a bunch of membrane plates (I think that's what they were called), made if I remember from molybdenum. Lovely stuff to machine, molybdenum. :wtf
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Personally, I would not bet on Bloom.

Circa 1998, I did a high school research project on Fuel Cells and alternative energy cars. The project inspired me to be a engineer and I have been following EVs, Fuel Cells, hybrids, CNG, bio fuels her since. Unfortunately, only Battery EVs and hybrids have made real progress in cars.

I interviewed with Bloom Energy ~6-7 years ago and they had a decent size operation and my worry is that if they have not got it right by now, will they ever have it right.

What is nice about Bloom is that the input fuel is natural gas, which we already have infrastructures in place in most of the US. No need to truck in or make onsite hydrogen like Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars need today - the #1 draw back to Fuel Cell Cars.

I wonder if they can really beat the grid "cradle to grave" when al things are considered.

A fuel cell car that you fill up with compressed natural gas is not a bad idea - and that is what I am interested in. Its not a new concept. You could fill up at home over ~8 hours overnight at home with a home "fill/ Phil" station compressor station. That would be easier today since, hydrogen fuel stations are very expensive and rare. CNG fast fill stations are easy to find around airports where a lot of busses and taxis fill up.

Charging a EV today is much easier, especially if you want to leave the SF Bay Area or LA area.
 
Blankpage said:
How would any joe blow online know whether any one particular company is a good buy or not. There so many behind the scene variables that even for insiders its still a guess.
Its a gamble no matter what but if you want to play you have take a risk. I try to go with analysts who have a good track record with the sectors they cover. And not just a particular company but I also bet on the CEO. The turnaround guys.
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The data says even the experts can't even do it well, so us average folks certainly can't.
 
bpw said:
The data says even the experts can't even do it well, so us average folks certainly can't.
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All the more reason why Average Joe should become a learned student of the game and make their own (self)educated picks instead of paying Experts to put them into mediocre instruments of mass consumption for which broker-dealer's and/or plan administrators are often incentivized to promote.
 
redruM said:
All the more reason why Average Joe should become a learned student of the game and make their own (self)educated picks instead of paying Experts to put them into mediocre instruments of mass consumption for which broker-dealer's and/or plan administrators are often incentivized to promote.
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Fully agree. It’s best to learn this stuff yourself. Anyone you give trust in will have an agenda and not your best interests.

Play around on test exchanges with free money and learn the market.
 
redruM said:
All the more reason why Average Joe should become a learned student of the game and make their own (self)educated picks instead of paying Experts to put them into mediocre instruments of mass consumption for which broker-dealer's and/or plan administrators are often incentivized to promote.
Click to expand...

Entoptic said:
Fully agree. It’s best to learn this stuff yourself. Anyone you give trust in will have an agenda and not your best interests.

Play around on test exchanges with free money and learn the market.
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You guys are missing my point,

The data says go broad market with lowest costs possible if you want the best odds of making money. I don't think I have ever seen any data showing that individuals are able to beat the market in a meaningful way more reliably than random chance.

Essentially, anyone who thinks they are good at investing is most likely deluding themselves as the result of being lucky unless they have access to inside information.

And before you point to Warren Buffet or similar, the reality of random chance does mean that some people will do incredibly well over long periods of time.
 
afm199 said:
The only advice I would offer is to avoid IPO's like the plague, and if you must, bet small. Hold mutuals or ETF's, and minimize your exposure to one stock or position.

I lost huge holding Worldcom.
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fortunately I've been amassing a nice little momentum with the dividend stocks, all of which happen to be mutuals. Incidentally, one of which I must credit to you sir. PTY has been treating me very well. thanks for that. I think if I stay in my lane and keep the exploratory investing to a minimum, I may just do ok.

happy new years

also, I'll add that fcntx seems to be ripe for plucking. 1:10 split and then a ~$2/share loss over the last q)... as funds go this is one of the flagships. and I got a nice little ~5.5% dividend for 2018. I'm thinking of turning around my losses in fucking snap and putting the scraps into one of my faves.
 
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How many of you guys compare share price to NAV (Net Asset Value)?
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PTY


12-9-2018 "an attractive investment option at its current market price":
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227334-pty-high-yield-safe-share-price


8-18-2018: "The purpose of this article is to articulate why I believe the PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (NYSE:pTY) is not an attractive investment option at its current market price. PTY's share price has been marching higher recently, but its NAV has been flat, which has sent the fund's premium to net asset value (NAV) markedly higher. "
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175400-pty-22-percent-premium-bold


I like how these Seeking Alpha articles are written, first with a thesis at the very top and then some succinct factoids to back it up. In Aug, PTY was seen as overpriced, in Dec it is seen as an attractive investment option.
 
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AwakeNAlive said:
How many of you guys compare share price to NAV (Net Asset Value)?
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PTY


12-9-2018 "an attractive investment option at its current market price":
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227334-pty-high-yield-safe-share-price


8-18-2018: "The purpose of this article is to articulate why I believe the PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (NYSE:pTY) is not an attractive investment option at its current market price. PTY's share price has been marching higher recently, but its NAV has been flat, which has sent the fund's premium to net asset value (NAV) markedly higher. "
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175400-pty-22-percent-premium-bold


I like how these Seeking Alpha articles are written, first with a thesis at the very top and then some succinct factoids to back it up. In Aug, PTY was seen as overpriced, in Dec it is seen as an attractive investment option.
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PTY, PFN, PFL, PDI, and the other Pimco CEF's mostly depend on borrowed short term money for leverage. That's a factor that changes, and income changes as portfolio changes. Most of the reviewers look at investment income and whether it covers dividends, or whether they consist in part of ROC (Return of Capital). All of them are graded by Pimco for investment income, and PTY varied more than most of the Pimco funds, being in the deficient category for a period, then back to sufficient. PDI is the monster here, it just paid a huge year end dividend to get rid of excess investment income. When Pimco releases its figures, the ratings may change.
 
AwakeNAlive said:
How many of you guys compare share price to NAV (Net Asset Value)?
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/PTY


12-9-2018 "an attractive investment option at its current market price":
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227334-pty-high-yield-safe-share-price


8-18-2018: "The purpose of this article is to articulate why I believe the PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (NYSE:pTY) is not an attractive investment option at its current market price. PTY's share price has been marching higher recently, but its NAV has been flat, which has sent the fund's premium to net asset value (NAV) markedly higher. "
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175400-pty-22-percent-premium-bold


I like how these Seeking Alpha articles are written, first with a thesis at the very top and then some succinct factoids to back it up. In Aug, PTY was seen as overpriced, in Dec it is seen as an attractive investment option.
Click to expand...

interesting, thanks for sharing. Tracing it back to my initial entry, it happened to be the last time the share price and NAV overlapped (Jan-Feb 2016)
 
Bowling4Bikes said:
fortunately I've been amassing a nice little momentum with the dividend stocks, all of which happen to be mutuals. Incidentally, one of which I must credit to you sir. PTY has been treating me very well. thanks for that. I think if I stay in my lane and keep the exploratory investing to a minimum, I may just do ok.

happy new years

also, I'll add that fcntx seems to be ripe for plucking. 1:10 split and then a ~$2/share loss over the last q)... as funds go this is one of the flagships. and I got a nice little ~5.5% dividend for 2018. I'm thinking of turning around my losses in fucking snap and putting the scraps into one of my faves.
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Bingo.

Rebalancing periodic strategy automatically sells a % of funds when they are high and buys low to get the stocks/ bonds - international, small, mid and large cap back in balance.
 
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It’s not rocket science. Warren Buffet has said for years, if you’re playing the long game bet on the S&P500 and you’ll outperform most if not all hedge funds with around a 10% growth number.

It’s also not hard to predict which companies will be around in 5 years, 10 years, and about 20 years might be the farthest you would want to look in your crystal ball. But I would be wary of any brick and mortar and dying technologies.

Amazon is the new Walmart.
Tesla is the new GM/Ford.
Google is the new GE.

Etc etc.
 
Ducky_Fresh said:
It’s not rocket science. Warren Buffet has said for years, if you’re playing the long game bet on the S&P500 and you’ll outperform most if not all hedge funds with around a 10% growth number.

It’s also not hard to predict which companies will be around in 5 years, 10 years, and about 20 years might be the farthest you would want to look in your crystal ball. But I would be wary of any brick and mortar and dying technologies.

Amazon is the new Walmart.
Tesla is the new GM/Ford.
Google is the new GE.

Etc etc.
Click to expand...

PM me the new Apple please :)
 
k, who's going to start the new stock thread 2019 and say something magical that will make us all prosper in the long term!
 
PEO is probably worth looking at right now.

Note. Nothing I say is guaranteed as anything. I am not an expert. I invest for dividends and hold stocks.

PEO is a closed end fund. It's holding a lot of beaten down commodity/natrual resource based stocks at a large discount. Your investment is not guaranteed.
 
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afm199 said:
PEO is probably worth looking at right now.

Note. Nothing I say is guaranteed as anything. I am not an expert. I invest for dividends and hold stocks.

PEO is a closed end fund. It's holding a lot of beaten down commodity/natrual resource based stocks at a large discount. Your investment is not guaranteed.
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i nominate afm199 to start the new thread!
 
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