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What stock would you buy and why?

Get some Berkshire:

102370.00 +370.00‎ (0.36%‎) Oct 15 4:01pm ET
102370.00‎ +0.00‎ (0.00%‎) After Hours
Open: 101600.00
High: 102370.00
Low: 101260.01

Volume: 563
Avg Vol: 0
Mkt Cap: 158.84B
 
Hold off on GE until they report tomorrow. GE Capital will probably report a huge loss on English mortgages, and GE earnings will be sharply down. (Still a good stock IMHO0.)

After market crashes, as happened in Mar of this year, there are surges back. As the market reaches a plateau, the uninvested or underinvested consumers see it going up on suddenly decide they need to get in before it is too late. At that point it is too late. I'd sit on the sidelines on this one. My stock positions for the year are WAY up. I've gotten back half of what I lost :laughing

P&G is a good stock. Citi may end up going down the tubes yet, they have huge debt.

Google? Don't do it. At some point people are going to ask themselves why they spent hundreds of dollars for ONE share of a stock that pays no dividends, and has a PE of close to 40. It may have large earnings, but that is only because it has relatively little stock out there and high prices for it. Remember AOL. Once considered the king of the net.
 
Would you go to the Wall Street Journal for motorcycle buying advice?
But since you asked, try: SIRI, HTE, PCX, and AGQ.
Remember nobody knows what direction the market will go or what will drive it there. People think the DOW is up huge this past 6 months but less impressive relative to the Euro the British Pound or the Canadian dollar.
 
Please, I've worked for 3 companies that Malone and company let go under.

They would LOVE for them to go under...so they can shed all that debt and buy it back up cheap.
Business is way too capital intensive to make money any other way (See: Iridium.)

Keep in mind, they are preferred shareholders -- the common holders always get screwed, they might recover something, and they can certainly make it back after SIRI joins the 7/11 club.

If you want to play the penny stock spread, by all means, but the OP asked for long term investments. Going long in SIRI is pissing your money away.
 
afm199 said:
Hold off on GE until they report tomorrow. GE Capital will probably report a huge loss on English mortgages, and GE earnings will be sharply down. (Still a good stock IMHO0.)

After market crashes, as happened in Mar of this year, there are surges back. As the market reaches a plateau, the uninvested or underinvested consumers see it going up on suddenly decide they need to get in before it is too late. At that point it is too late. I'd sit on the sidelines on this one. My stock positions for the year are WAY up. I've gotten back half of what I lost :laughing

P&G is a good stock. Citi may end up going down the tubes yet, they have huge debt.

Google? Don't do it. At some point people are going to ask themselves why they spent hundreds of dollars for ONE share of a stock that pays no dividends, and has a PE of close to 40. It may have large earnings, but that is only because it has relatively little stock out there and high prices for it. Remember AOL. Once considered the king of the net.
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I agree with most of that. I wouldn't buy any of them by themselves, but they're good additions to my portfolio.
 
Marlowe said:
Please, I've worked for 3 companies that Malone and company let go under.

They would LOVE for them to go under...so they can shed all that debt and buy it back up cheap.
Business is way too capital intensive to make money any other way (See: Iridium.)

Keep in mind, they are preferred shareholders -- the common holders always get screwed, they might recover something, and they can certainly make it back after SIRI joins the 7/11 club.

If you want to play the penny stock spread, by all means, but the OP asked for long term investments. Going long in SIRI is pissing your money away.
Click to expand...



I never said it was a sure thing, it’s my speculative play. They are the only game in town for sat radio. Let’s check back in 5 yrs and see if it’s a winner or a turd. My big bets are on energy and commodities.
 
You want to play around with the longshots, check out Carmanah Technologies (CMH). Solar lighting. One of those fields like electric vehicles that's poised to take off as soon as battery technology advances, but WAY off the radar and undervalued compared to the overpriced EV stocks.

It's a penny stock today (I think about $0.75), but the market size is huge as it allows builders, developers, and cities to bring lighting to parking lots, roadways, and parks without having to extend the power grid or tear up the earth running cable. Lots of unlit areas just waiting for the prices to drop...
 
Again, the OP asked for long term, set and forget investments, not something he's going to have to keep a close eye on and daytrade the hell out of the spreads to make any money at.
 
Marlowe said:
Again, the OP asked for long term, set and forget investments, not something he's going to have to keep a close eye on and daytrade the hell out of the spreads to make any money at.
Click to expand...

Hey if you got a set it and forget it, don’t hold back, we’re all ears.
 
Marlowe said:
Already posted above. Scroll up. :p
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw that one but you might want to consider something not so dependent on the US economy and with more exposure abroad. I don’t feel so confident that the US is going to solve its problems anytime soon. There may still be rough waters ahead.
 
It's not really that dependent on the US economy.

They've been posting 400-600MM a quarter in free cash flow, for the last couple of years. Even in this, they are making money, and not from investments -- from their operations. Why?

Read their statements...record coal shipments and the like. Anything they lose in consumer good shipping, they gain elsewhere. They are also very good at hedging their fuel expenses.

Everyone thinks it is, yet it just keeps on rolling, year after year. Keep in mind, the Class Is all survived the great depression, too. We're not there yet :p

Also, the less money shippers have to throw around, the cheaper solutions they look for -- rail is the most efficient. As a result, they take some business away from air cargo and trucking operations.

Now, SIRI, is entirely dependent on people's entertainment budgets, and demand, growing, because they sure aren't making money now. Which do you think is more exposed to this economic climate?
 
Marlowe said:
It's not really that dependent on the US economy.

They've been posting 400-600MM a quarter in free cash flow, for the last couple of years. Even in this, they are making money, and not from investments -- from their operations. Why?

Read their statements...record coal shipments and the like. Anything they lose in consumer good shipping, they gain elsewhere. They are also very good at hedging their fuel expenses.

Everyone thinks it is, yet it just keeps on rolling, year after year. Keep in mind, the Class Is all survived the great depression, too. We're not there yet :p

Also, the less money shippers have to throw around, the cheaper solutions they look for -- rail is the most efficient. As a result, they take some business away from air cargo and trucking operations.

Now, SIRI, is entirely dependent on people's entertainment budgets, and demand, growing, because they sure aren't making money now. Which do you think is more exposed to this economic climate?
Click to expand...

I have a SIRI membership that I’m addicted to. For a while there SIRI and XM were battling each other and that didn’t seem to be doing either one much good, now that that’s out of the way!
If most other members are as interested as I am in maintaining my subscription than I think things will slowly improve and it wouldn’t be a penny stock much longer. But I have been wrong before, we’ll see.
 
Keep in mind, purchasing satellite packages, launching them, and insuring them, is so obscenely expensive that they are BURIED in debt they have to service.

They'll never make any money as long as they are saddled with that debt. Read their quarterly statements closely and you'll get an idea what I'm talking about.

And if they file for Chapter 11, they can shed a lot of those obligations, but that also wipes out all the common shareholders. They'll continue operating as a company, but your equity just disappears.
 
Bankruptcy doesn't necessarily mean a total wipeout for equity holders but the haircut is usually pretty horrible. +1 on satelite radio in general being a loser, too capital intensive, highly discretionary, and really the offering is not that compelling. If they don't go extinct sooner, they will go extinct later when wireless infrastructure gets fully built out and people start streaming internet radio to their car from their phones.

As for good buy and holds:

GME Gamestop, video game sales have been bad this summer but with cuts to all the console prices, they will pick up for the holidays. GME also has an unbeatable business model (the place for used video games), very attractive PE/PEG/cashflow, well below historical lows. I have had leveraged option positions on it since July and have seen a 50% return, with the expectation of more to come.

I would also take a look at MLPs and other partnership/trust vehicles, these are typically found in the oil/gas pipeline/storage/production business. the taxes are a bit strange, but once you read a little bit its not that difficult and many yield 8-12% per year, are low beta (low correlation with markets and generally lower volatility) with the majority of distributions DEFERRED from taxation (because it is treated as a depreciation against your initial investment) until you sell your shares.
 
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