• There has been a recent cluster of spammers accessing BARFer accounts and posting spam. To safeguard your account, please consider changing your password. It would be even better to take the additional step of enabling 2 Factor Authentication (2FA) on your BARF account. Read more here.

What's Luck Go To Do With It?

flying_hun

Adverse Selection
Joined
May 4, 2005
Location
Orinda, CA
Moto(s)
A funky red & white Italian named Gianni Cervo! Versys - two of 'em! And an Enfield for laughs.
BARF perks
AMA #: 281672
Sing along with Tina,

What's luck got to do
got to do with it?

Luck is a hot button topic. Maybe you don't want to call it luck. Maybe you want to call it cosmic good fortune. Maybe you want call it surfing the space time continuum. Maybe you want to believe it's got nothing to do with you.

Cool. It's got something to do with me. I'm not fatalistic. I don't believe in pre-destination. I don't believe when "your number's up, it' up". But I see "luck" all over the place.

Some recent posts in which some experienced and respected riders have mentioned luck - and others have reacted adversely - got me thinking about it.

Here's the deal; I've been at this a while. I've pretty much always taken riding seriously, always wanted to be good at it, always wanted to do what I could to make myself safer. Read the articles, paid attention on the roads, went to riding schools, paid attention to the instructors. And for the most part, I've done okay despite being a daily commuter, a long(ish) distance tourer, and an enthusiastic weekend twisty rider. I'm still here. Been riding on the street since 1976, and only had physical contact with a car once (touch wood).

I believe that each of us has responsibility for our actions, and that it's up to each of us to make ourselves as safe as we can - with the knowledge that the safest motorcyclist is the one home in bed. I believe that each time something goes wrong, or I get surprised by something, that's a failure, and a failure is a learning opportunity.

So why do I believe in luck? This could apply in so many instances, and to so many people, but I'll use two as examples.

I used to sort of know this guy. Met him on a Doc Wong ride. He had an infectious enthusiasm for riding. He was a guy who did it all. He'd raced AFM, he'd toured all over hell and gone, including rides in Baja, and the farthest reaches of the Canol Road in the Yukon and NW Territories. He rode to work. He got other people into riding. He gave back to the community. He was a rider's rider. He was the kind of rider I aspired to be. His name was Craig Hightower and he was killed commuting to work.

I used to know this other guy. Met him on a tard ride on Mt. Hamilton. Guy was riding this little POS 250, and was effortlessly quick and smooth. He had raced AFM, been a class champion. He instructed at track days. He wrote books on better riding. He was featured in national motorcycle publications. He showed up for the community. He helped other riders improve. I rode with him occasionally, but only kept up when he let me, and I never saw him try to ride fast. His name was Gary Jaehne, and he was killed on a beautiful spring Saturday out riding with friends on a roads he knew like no one else is ever likely to know them.

We could go back through old threads and debate the "causes" of their crashes, but that's largely a waste of time. They were highly skilled riders who in each case got killed doing something they'd done many times before with no bad consequences, just like there are things I've done many times that could potentially kill me, but haven't. Just like I would wager there are things you have done many times that could kill you but haven't.

The point is, both these guys were far better riders than me, and both of them died riding. Bad luck vs. good luck.

I believe in doing what I can to be the best rider I can be. I don't believe in infallibility. I don't believe popes are infallible, and I sure as shit don't think motorcyclists are infallible.

There were enough Greek tragedies taught when I was in K-12 that I soaked in the lesson that hubris is a bad thing and will lead to a bad end. If you've got the hubris to believe you're infallible, well then, all I can do is suggest a little humility and awareness, and wish you good luck.

That's what luck has to do with it.
 
Good thread, and a good topic. I disagree that it is a hot button topic. To the best of my knowledge, there is only one person on the board who is so skilled that he is immune to bad luck. The rest of us understand that skills are VERY important, but luck will always play a role. Always.
 
Luck, chance, and randomness don't really exist. By saying that something happened randomly or by chance we're merely admitting that we don't understand the complex chain of causes that led to that event. It's really not that different from our ancestors saying that lightning is caused by gods when they didn't understand what causes lightning.

Similarly with riding. There are causes of crashes that are more complex than just riding skill - e.g. hubris - and I think our choices (related to riding) have a lot more impact on our safety than we typically believe. Truly unavoidable crashes are extremely rare, if you broaden your view beyond the most immediate observable causes of crashes.
 
being very good at riding can get you killed as easy as sucking at it.

luck is of course a factor for everybody from noob to sensei, but overconfidence and acclimation can get you easy as squeezing the bars like you're trying to choke two chickens and fearing what's around every turn. not casting aspersions on the riders you mentioned, speaking to the scenario.
 
Good thread, and a good topic. I disagree that it is a hot button topic. To the best of my knowledge, there is only one person on the board who is so skilled that he is immune to bad luck. The rest of us understand that skills are VERY important, but luck will always play a role. Always.

I think there are two, as the Sith has an apprentice again.
 
Glad to see, Flying Hun start this thread.. I agree with what he is sayin. :thumbup :)

And I agree with Ilikefood's post as well. :thumbup :)

And unirr's as well... :thumbup :)
 
Last edited:
Nice post Hun.

I am alive because of luck.

Coming over a blind hill at the speed limit and find a horse trailer and PU pulling into a D/W is was luck that I hit the paneling and not the steel rails.

When I crashed at 125mph on oil going into T1 at Sears it was luck that I hit the tire wall right and I was not parallized from a broken back or neck.

When I high sided at Laguna and only broke a rib and got a concussion rather than a Wayne Rainey career ending injury it was luck.

Watching Hun miss a U turn dipshit on 128 I knew luck was with us.
I could go on for paragraphs.

Skill counts. NO Doubt.

So does luck.
 
Nice post Kurt. Whether skilled or not, we all choose a level of risk that we operate with. Some of us do it knowingly, some are deluded. Either way it's up to luck from there.
 
Have had so many pass over the years many were pro riders some were just long time riders my brother passed in 59, I remember watching him on TV at Ascot park doing flat track and TT, he was one of the official starters at Riverside, I don't think he ever drove a car.

Me I been riding since 66 got my license in 68 one accident have no idea of how many miles I have, many bikes over the decades (yes I can say that ) why I'am here and so many others are gone who can say.

Just live every day.





:ride:ride:ride
 
Guys riding effortlessly fast on the street still has to face reaper physics, i.e., kinetic energy, in a crash.

It’s less mysterious when you think of luck as probability.
 
unirr didn't post here, yet!

Yeah, but when he does come in here and post, it will definitely be something he agrees with. :p

I think there are two types of luck. One is inversely proportional to skill and the other is the black cloud that can strike anyone at anytime and there's nothing to be done about it.
 
i think you make your own luck. In other words, you improve the probability of a positive outcome. But, the converse never goes to zero. It's still roulette; anyone who says different is selling something.
 
Luck, chance, and randomness don't really exist. By saying that something happened randomly or by chance we're merely admitting that we don't understand the complex chain of causes that led to that event.

A couple of questions for you:

  1. Do we live in a deterministic or a probabilistic universe?
  2. Whatever your answer to the first question, tell us how you track every single variable that could impact every single scenario you encounter in a day's worth of riding. Extra credit if you can explain how you account for interactions between variables.

Unirr, good job with the delete. You clearly missed the whole hubris/humility thing.
 
Luck has made the difference way to many times in my street riding too.
One of the reasons I got in to dirtbike riding and the main reason, if I had to chose between the two I'd keep it on the dirt now.
 
i think you make your own luck. In other words, you improve the probability of a positive outcome. But, the converse never goes to zero. It's still roulette; anyone who says different is selling something.

^short and sweet. Deleted my winded version for this.
 
Greek Tragedies in K-12?!? Man, they didn't teach that in my 'hood...

Really good post, you intellectual.

(Er, and my "hood" was Cupertino...)
 
Back
Top