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2025 Investment Thread

A “hater” of a stock, is that even a thing.

If I recall correctly it was at around $3T in market cap when you were forecasting the 10 bagger return which I commented at the time about the absurdity of any company hitting $30T.
Sure some company will eventually but in what timeframe. The AI plays are getting pretty frothy and has its share of shady characters.
Plus now you got the administration extorting them for a cut and other capable companies are not going to just sit by and let NVDA own the playing field.
 
Silver and platinum skyrocketed this year, to unrealistic levels, so I'll probably dump them after new years. Plus those metals are more tied to economic growth than gold is, so if the economy takes a dump, then they will too. All this unemployment and debt is eventually going to cause some damage.
 
Blankpage said:
A “hater” of a stock, is that even a thing.

If I recall correctly it was at around $3T in market cap when you were forecasting the 10 bagger return which I commented at the time about the absurdity of any company hitting $30T.
Sure some company will eventually but in what timeframe. The AI plays are getting pretty frothy and has its share of shady characters.
Plus now you got the administration extorting them for a cut and other capable companies are not going to just sit by and let NVDA own the playing field.
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Dood you have no idea what your talking about, trump and Huang are good friends

This was all planned, Biden blocks, trump says you can sell it but gimme 10%

Trump's first call from his admin to Huang was ,we gonna do whatever you need us to do

If your not looking into what NVDA is doing your just on the bandwagon of everyone from my plumber to the waiter talks about NVDA so therefore it's overvalued

Also confused as to why you can't see the 60 to 600 is 10x,and comment that the stock needs to be valued at 30 trillion, it hit 2 more trillion already - almost 2x in what less then 1 year? The stock split 10:1

Really sounds like your just sour, everyone at work knows I told them to sell the house and buy Tesla when it was sub 100 years back (4-5x now) and same thing I made it known that when NVDA was 600 (pre split) it was going to moon (3x now)
 
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Wow, Au, Ag and Pt are going bonkers in a good way. Good for me. What's up with that?
 
I would like to hold some physical Pt. Just because, that is all. I do in an alloyed form, but nothing pure. It's all fun at this stage.
 
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Is anyone interested in trading some Pt for Au? I hold gold and silver but have no platinum. I don't need any, nor do I need the other metals. If anyone is interested in trading at spot please let me know.
 
900ss said:
Is anyone interested in trading some Pt for Au? I hold gold and silver but have no platinum. I don't need any, nor do I need the other metals. If anyone is interested in trading at spot please let me know.
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Would you be willing to trade for a set of track takeoffs plus lawnmower with missing exhaust?
 
FXCLM5 said:
Really sounds like your just sour, everyone at work knows I told them to sell the house and buy Tesla when it was sub 100 years back (4-5x now) and same thing I made it known that when NVDA was 600 (pre split) it was going to moon (3x now)
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To be fair, TSLA was and is waaaaaay overpriced as a business, but Elon is probably the greatest circus ringmaster of all time. In financial spheres, the quality of that trade, despite having spectacular realized ROI, would be discounted substantially based on the very high level of risk incurred.

The NVDA call would've been pretty solid, although if you're still in it, might not be a bad time to take profits and reduce exposure. Semiconductors traditionally have a lot of volatility, and at some point NVDA will realign with that reality.
 
FXCLM5 said:
Who do you really think is going to challenge NVDA? I don't see anybody that is up to their level, you can say amd and Intel and if you look into it, their designs are still like 2 generations behind vs tsmc stuff for NVDA
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So my 2c.. one of the biggest risks is that transformers/LLMs, as a general type of technology, reach an understood limit in capability that can't be solved with just further compute. Then the industry has to go back to the research drawing board, and existing LLM capability will be optimized (e.g, Deepseek) for scaled inference, which leads to a drop in demand for cutting edge chips. There will still be demand, but NVDA's current market cap is built around wildly oversubscribed demand that allows them to charge a huge premium.

Sidebar, this is kinda what happened with Google and voice to text, in the late aughts. When that functionality first launched, Google projected that if everyone started using it, it would require like 5X the compute that Google currently had. But, the technology reached it's natural limit of progress, new and more efficient architectures were developed to tame the cost structure, and hardware improved, such that a few years later it wasn't really a big deal anymore.
 
mercurial said:
To be fair, TSLA was and is waaaaaay overpriced as a business, but Elon is probably the greatest circus ringmaster of all time. In financial spheres, the quality of that trade, despite having spectacular realized ROI, would be discounted substantially based on the very high level of risk incurred.

The NVDA call would've been pretty solid, although if you're still in it, might not be a bad time to take profits and reduce exposure. Semiconductors traditionally have a lot of volatility, and at some point NVDA will realign with that reality.
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Yes Tesla is still over priced, but tbh they will flip it like Amazon, Tesla won't be forever known as a ev car company that was their foot into market they will morph probably into autonomous things like robots and cars taxis etc, and yes I found other stuff to rotate too from the ai world, micron ,lam research and some etfs like smhx and soxq. I trimmed when we bombed Iran, I thought it was gonna tank, it just shot up and I had to get back in
mercurial said:
So my 2c.. one of the biggest risks is that transformers/LLMs, as a general type of technology, reach an understood limit in capability that can't be solved with just further compute. Then the industry has to go back to the research drawing board, and existing LLM capability will be optimized (e.g, Deepseek) for scaled inference, which leads to a drop in demand for cutting edge chips. There will still be demand, but NVDA's current market cap is built around wildly oversubscribed demand that allows them to charge a huge premium.

Sidebar, this is kinda what happened with Google and voice to text, in the late aughts. When that functionality first launched, Google projected that if everyone started using it, it would require like 5X the compute that Google currently had. But, the technology reached it's natural limit of progress, new and more efficient architectures were developed to tame the cost structure, and hardware improved, such that a few years later it wasn't really a big deal anymore.
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Kinda agree, but NVDA is seriously 2 generations ahead of the competition.

This new Intel fab is a joke and 2 generations behind tsmc, the new Arizona tsmc fab will not be the top tier chippies producer.

But I see it as the industry is moving by to fast and ppl still dunno what to do other then mimic copycat others and that's where NVDA keeps getting paid.

I saw this between Intel and amd, all of sudden amd pushed multiple core processors and Intel had to catch up, mind you this is like 2005, 20 years ago, and I want to say in 2025 and almost 2026, most applications and games haven't even been really developed to use all the multi core processors tech
 
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So I am a bit biased perhaps, having worked at TSLA's self-driving competitor for many years, but my general perspective is that you cannot make a self driving car safe without LIDAR. Since TSLA is currently in the business of selling cars to individuals, and these individuals are cost sensitive and don't want to pay thousands of additional dollars for expensive LIDAR hardware, TSLA made the gamble that radar and video would ultimately be sufficient to train fully autonomous vehicles. This was a losing bet, and now TSLA has millions of cars on the road that will never be technically capable of autonomous driving.
 
Taking some winnings and throwing them at overvalued trash like TSLA and CVNA is my insurance policy when the music stops. Generational wealth will be made.
 
mercurial said:
So I am a bit biased perhaps, having worked at TSLA's self-driving competitor for many years, but my general perspective is that you cannot make a self driving car safe without LIDAR. Since TSLA is currently in the business of selling cars to individuals, and these individuals are cost sensitive and don't want to pay thousands of additional dollars for expensive LIDAR hardware, TSLA made the gamble that radar and video would ultimately be sufficient to train fully autonomous vehicles. This was a losing bet, and now TSLA has millions of cars on the road that will never be technically capable of autonomous driving.
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I agree with lidar as a need 100%, this won't happen until gov forces the issue

No way can cameras do it all, when it rains hard I can't even see clearly out of the windshield, and we have what like 25k+ eyeball real vision vs 4k/8k video lens feeds?

Elon is still being dumb enough to tell the team next Tesla EV will still not have a manual door latch

The gov will have to set the rules for the playground
 
What are your goals.

At my age if I'm up 10 percent year to year I'm very happy.

Anything over 5 percent is gravy.

I know that for some higher returns are worth chasing because of a younger age or smaller equity base.

But 10 percent is good for me and that was achieved this year despite the nonsense.
 
I benchmark myself vs the S&P500. If im beating that, im winning.

I will probably close the year up 50% on a decently sized port.
 
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