• There has been a recent cluster of spammers accessing BARFer accounts and posting spam. To safeguard your account, please consider changing your password. It would be even better to take the additional step of enabling 2 Factor Authentication (2FA) on your BARF account. Read more here.

Bay area housing market

That's what they do until they burst.
 
I agree with Sharky, buy smaller and in the most desirable areas. The trend is people want to live in desirable, urban areas that have decent walk-ability.

Having a big house in the burbs is soul-sucking, it's a lot of maintenance and the appreciation isn't as good.
 
Dubbington said:
Is the said bubble continuing to float up or nah??
Click to expand...

a bubble tends to have a specified time period associated with it to say we aren't in one because the BA market hasn't had a long term decrease in prices is incorrect

As HappyH indicates, it's never a bad time to buy in the BA if you are in it for the long haul. If you have plans to relocate within the next 7-10 years, I might stay away from the BA Market.

Here is a good depiction:
Case-Shiller_Simplified_from-1984.jpg
 
Last edited:
mercurial said:
Doesn't look like the bubble before, lots of the demand component is foreign buyers with lots of cash. Tech people also have real money. Interest rates are not going up in the near future.

That being said, the local housing market is pretty hot and global economic growth is sluggish at best,I don't think a 10-15% correction is impossible. But when it will happen, is anyone's guess.
Click to expand...

Unless you're looking for a term shorter than about 15 years, bubble won't be a large issue. I agree with Tim, too. Cash backing product. M1/ inflation pretty influential. Low rates. High qualifications needed for financing.

This market may be expensive, but it's nothing like the 2000's market. Most of the elements are different. One thing to watch for: how much foreclosed product Fannie/ Freddie/ lenders are holding off the market.
 
Many of my friends have purchased in SF the past 3 years. They are all up between 50-100% of their purchase price, including myself.

If you were to buy now I'd assume the rate of gain to be much slower.

The people I bought my house from got it new, and then sold at the worst time. Just like the stock market people insist on buying high and selling low instead of the other way around.
 
Last edited:
So because SF has recovered faster it's a bubble?

By this rational is there ever a time where a rising market isn't a bubble? When's the Toronto real estate bubble they've been talking about for 10+ years? Where's the Vancouver bubble? Where's the New York bubble? Where's the London bubble?

I'm not saying this is the case, but virtually everyone who mentions bubble says it with a bitterness in their voice that sounds like "I either missed my opportunity or cannot afford to buy into this market and thus will mock those in it"
 
Yakoo752 said:
This scares the shit out of me
Click to expand...

Me too. The market is largely being controlled by the lack of product (and lack of permits/ Zoning in CA added to building costs). With the Fed controlling the rate at which stuff is put back on the market, things could get pretty slow in terms of appreciation soon...
 
mercurial said:
Doesn't look like the bubble before, lots of the demand component is foreign buyers with lots of cash. Tech people also have real money. Interest rates are not going up in the near future.

That being said, the local housing market is pretty hot and global economic growth is sluggish at best,I don't think a 10-15% correction is impossible. But when it will happen, is anyone's guess.
Click to expand...

Agreed. There is nothing like the 2008-9 fiasco brewing.

But housing has been cyclic for a very long time, and with an overall up trend.

Yes, it has been going up a lot, and at some point the cycle will assert itself. But if your horizon is long enough there could be a strong case made for the currently low interest rates being worth entering the market late in the cycle.


Reli said:
San Ramon isn't a good place for a first home........All you'll get for your money is a lame townhome. You could get a real house for the same price in San Leandro.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but then you'd have to live in San Leandro.

Sharky said:
I would buy a smaller house in a more desirable location versus a larger one in a less desirable locale. I took a giant hit on my Concord house when the market crashed and it took 7+ years to come (almost) back. Similar houses in Walnut Creek rebounded much quicker and did not take nearly as big of a hit.

But hey, feel free to by a 1500 square foot house in San Leandro for $500K. When the market corrects in a few years, you'll be locked in it for a decade.
Click to expand...

Very true - the less desirable areas are the first to fall, and the last to recover. See also: Tracy
 
HappyHighwayman said:
So because SF has recovered faster it's a bubble?

By this rational is there ever a time where a rising market isn't a bubble? When's the Toronto real estate bubble they've been talking about for 10+ years? Where's the Vancouver bubble? Where's the New York bubble? Where's the London bubble?

I'm not saying this is the case, but virtually everyone who mentions bubble says it with a bitterness in their voice that sounds like "I either missed my opportunity or cannot afford to buy into this market and thus will mock those in it"
Click to expand...

not because it's recovered faster, but because it's recovered at a few magnitudes greater of both CA and the US. The market recovered over the last 7 years, incomes have recovered, unemployment has recovered everywhere... why haven't homes recovered everywhere as well? Why has the only REAL growth in housing been the bay area?

no bitterness in my voice :laughing - I got lucky with my housing opportunities in the BA
 
Yakoo752 said:
not because it's recovered faster, but because it's recovered at a few magnitudes greater of both CA and the US. The market recovered over the last 7 years, incomes have recovered, unemployment has recovered everywhere... why haven't homes recovered everywhere as well? Why has the only REAL growth in housing been the bay area?

no bitterness in my voice :laughing - I got lucky with my housing opportunities in the BA
Click to expand...

Sorry I didn't mean YOU in this case.

Homes in the Bay area recover faster and more because it's a BETTER PLACE TO LIVE. Do you not see that? Most of America sucks in comparison (except fro stuff like traffic and size of homes). Weather here is great, I'll take earthquakes over tornadoes, hurricanes, mass shootings, Christians and such any day. There's nature, tech companies, the ocean, etc

Do you wonder why lots of people want to live in NY? Paris? London? Sydney?
Ok so let's say the"bubble" pops tomorrow...does it drop to pre-2012 or half way between 2012 and now? And if the latter, is it really a buble?
 
jt2 said:
Agreed. There is nothing like the 2008-9 fiasco brewing.

But housing has been cyclic for a very long time, and with an overall up trend.

Yes, it has been going up a lot, and at some point the cycle will assert itself. But if your horizon is long enough there could be a strong case made for the currently low interest rates being worth entering the market late in the cycle.




Yeah, but then you'd have to live in San Leandro.



Very true - the less desirable areas are the first to fall, and the last to recover. See also: Tracy
Click to expand...

I'll see your Tracy and raise you a Pittsburg and Stockton.
:laughing
 
HappyHighwayman said:
So how much are they holding off the market then in the Bay Area?
Click to expand...

It's so hard to say how many REOs are in the Bay Area, in fact I would wager impossible. Sure you can look at how many are on the market but that only shows you what the banks are selling... "Shadow REOs" exist as do "foreclosed/owner occupied".
 
Yakoo752 said:
It's so hard to say how many REOs are in the Bay Area, in fact I would wager impossible. Sure you can look at how many are on the market but that only shows you what the banks are selling... "Shadow REOs" exist as do "foreclosed/owner occupied".
Click to expand...

So you don't have a numbers to back up the claim that many properties are being held back?
 
HappyHighwayman said:
So because SF has recovered faster it's a bubble?

By this rational is there ever a time where a rising market isn't a bubble? When's the Toronto real estate bubble they've been talking about for 10+ years? Where's the Vancouver bubble? Where's the New York bubble? Where's the London bubble?

I'm not saying this is the case, but virtually everyone who mentions bubble says it with a bitterness in their voice that sounds like "I either missed my opportunity or cannot afford to buy into this market and thus will mock those in it"
Click to expand...



I have zero interest in purchasing a home so I have neither missed my opportunity nor have an jealousy for those that have.

I just see significant signs that again a rapidly rising bubble is happening. My experience in the building industry happens to give me a little insight into it. Much of the same painfully obvious issues in 2006 are, again, becoming painfully obvious
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top