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Bay area housing market

kevin 714 said:
I have zero interest in purchasing a home so I have neither missed my opportunity nor have an jealousy for those that have.

I just see significant signs that again a rapidly rising bubble is happening. My experience in the building industry happens to give me a little insight into it. Much of the same painfully obvious issues in 2006 are, again, becoming painfully obvious
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Such as?

Home Depot is packed these days. Lots of remodeling going on. Typically a good sign housing is doing well.
 
Ok so can some of you guys give specifics to backup up all this bubble talk or are we just gonna have to take your word for it?
 
Dubbington said:
Such as?

Home Depot is packed these days. Lots of remodeling going on. Typically a good sign housing is doing well.
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Over extended contractors trying to jungle too many jobs, lots and lots of payments for remodels I work on, done with home equity checks (from very blue collar people). The reemergence of part time realtors trying to cash in.

Part time "designers" working themselves into middle of projects that reAlly don't need designers.

Otherwise crapy areas with massively overvalued homes (Vallejo, north bay, north Sonoma etc). Housing costs rapidly outpacing wages. Wage stagnation in carpentry and framing as immigrants return en masse. Inability to find quality labor.

Family and friends who own land in the penngrove/Petaluma area being constantly called by builders about selling their land

High density housing buildings being spec, and spec'd with terribly cheap products at unsustainable low margins based on volume.


Could go on and on. Just glad in 2006 my brother saw all this, and adjusted his business accordingly. 100% predicted the crash and actually made s killing during the time period
 
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HappyHighwayman said:
So you don't have a numbers to back up the claim that many properties are being held back?
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Grab a realtytrack subscription and take a look. There's a lot of REO stuff that overshadows the listings. It clearly is a plan to slowly drop product on the market.
 
HappyHighwayman said:
Sorry I didn't mean YOU in this case.

Homes in the Bay area recover faster and more because it's a BETTER PLACE TO LIVE. Do you not see that? Most of America sucks in comparison (except fro stuff like traffic and size of homes). Weather here is great, I'll take earthquakes over tornadoes, hurricanes, mass shootings, Christians and such any day. There's nature, tech companies, the ocean, etc

Do you wonder why lots of people want to live in NY? Paris? London? Sydney?
Ok so let's say the"bubble" pops tomorrow...does it drop to pre-2012 or half way between 2012 and now? And if the latter, is it really a buble?
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Non-comedy gold! :)

HappyHighwayman said:
So you don't have a numbers to back up the claim that many properties are being held back?
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HappyHighwayman said:
Ok so can some of you guys give specifics to backup up all this bubble talk or are we just gonna have to take your word for it?
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HappyHighwayman said:
Is there any other evidence then other than "trust me"?
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Comedy gold :laughing:laughing
 
Sharky said:
I would buy a smaller house in a more desirable location versus a larger one in a less desirable locale. I took a giant hit on my Concord house when the market crashed and it took 7+ years to come (almost) back. Similar houses in Walnut Creek rebounded much quicker and did not take nearly as big of a hit.

But hey, feel free to by a 1500 square foot house in San Leandro for $500K. When the market corrects in a few years, you'll be locked in it for a decade.
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Yes that's true, but you are assuming that San Leandro is bad just because it's near Oakland. There are questionable parts of it to be sure, but the part I'm talking about is fairly decent. And with a lot more character than San Ramon. BTW as far as $500K goes, good luck buying anything more than 900 sq ft with that much in San Ramon. Place is a joke. You'll spend more on utilities too, trying to keep it cool or warm.
 
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here you go

http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/ca
8.56% of homes in CA are vacant - this doesn't include rentals

since they keep the good stuff (SF) close to the chest here is some San Jose data

realty trac said:
There are currently 902 properties in San Jose, CA that are in some stage of foreclosure (default, auction or bank owned) while the number of homes listed for sale on RealtyTrac is 388.

In August, the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing in San Jose, CA was 2% higher than the previous month and 1% lower than the same time last year.

Foreclosures 902
Homes for Sale 388
Recently Sold 1,814
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Remember this post.

Within 3 years there will be a slowdown in the housing market for the bay area. Prices will drop 30%.
 
HappyHighwayman said:
And then go up again to a new height.
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Due to water pouring from the heavens.
Illegals making it the most prosperous state in the world.
People's desire for endless taxation.
The social media/big data tech bubble bursting due to the lack of value in having hoards of data on a middle class that no longer exists and can't afford anything.
A tech industry that is continuously diversifying outside of California and is growing tired of paying new grads $100k+ a year.

Just don't flood the other pacific northwestern states. I'd hate to see them turn into fruit baskets where a shack costs $1million+ just cause they heard the market is dumb enough to pay for it.
 
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I have a personal example of the Chinese money....house goes on sale in my complex...sells for a ridiculous $1.4 M...Chinese money for their son going to college. Anyway another one goes on sale...sells for $1.2...because the $1.4 was waaaay higher than the 2nd highest bid apparently...anyway it's still an AWESOME price, but shows what a rich un-involved foreign money can do.
 
Meter Man said:
Remember this post.

Within 3 years there will be a slowdown in the housing market for the bay area. Prices will drop 30%.
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agreed

HappyHighwayman said:
And then go up again to a new height.
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agreed but that's a total of 10+ years out, from today

but that's kind of the definition of a bubble :laughing If I was planning on moving in the next 10 years, the Bay Area is NOT where I would purchase property to live in.
 
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