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2025 Investment Thread

One of my top tips for making a big purchase like a home is to plan your exit from equities to something safe.

Some clients of mine are having difficulty buying a home because they did not do this.
 
Ya know, if this all had happened the FIRST time Trump was in office I'd have been prepared with a nice big cash down payment (and a job!) and could have snatched up a larger home on the cheap. Didn't bother this round.
 
Way I see there is a tax that's staying and a retaliatory tariff for negotiation. This could all turn around tomorrow if Trump wants. All he's gota do for Europe is say look, I was serious when I said I was guna tax Europe for it's defense. We have allowed Europe virtually unrestricted access to US markets, millions of cars have been sold here and the reason we did that was for national defense. A strong Europe is good for all of us. Yet for the last 30 years we haven't been getting that return. If the EU agrees to commit 3% (or whatever) to national defense I'll suspend the retaliatory tariffs. Trump gets his NATO win and I think that would be easy for Europe to swallow. The rest of the world sees that he is out to negotiate and we get better access to global markets and we move on (with his base 10% or whatever staying and China tax staying).

Hoping for another 25% off the markets before negotiations and I think of redeploying my T-Bills. But if this really is about reindustrializing all bets are off???

Just the opinion of a guy that rides bikes...
 
Well, whatever happens, short term is gonna be a wild ride. I saw something suggesting that aftermarket trading suggests a 6 point drop on Monday. Oof.
 
Popular idiom making rounds in the investosphere right now is; don't try to catch a falling knife.
 
N4teTheGreat said:
Well, whatever happens, short term is gonna be a wild ride. I saw something suggesting that aftermarket trading suggests a 6 point drop on Monday. Oof.
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The admin is downplaying it on the Sunday news shows. :laughing
 
Dow futures down about 3.8% right now. My first buy for this drop is APA. Will buy 100-200 shares tomorrow and watch.
 
norcalkid said:
Way I see there is a tax that's staying and a retaliatory tariff for negotiation. This could all turn around tomorrow if Trump wants. All he's gota do for Europe is say look, I was serious when I said I was guna tax Europe for it's defense. We have allowed Europe virtually unrestricted access to US markets, millions of cars have been sold here and the reason we did that was for national defense. A strong Europe is good for all of us. Yet for the last 30 years we haven't been getting that return. If the EU agrees to commit 3% (or whatever) to national defense I'll suspend the retaliatory tariffs. Trump gets his NATO win and I think that would be easy for Europe to swallow. The rest of the world sees that he is out to negotiate and we get better access to global markets and we move on (with his base 10% or whatever staying and China tax staying).

Hoping for another 25% off the markets before negotiations and I think of redeploying my T-Bills. But if this really is about reindustrializing all bets are off???

Just the opinion of a guy that rides bikes...
Click to expand...
I beg to differ.
The part of the equation that's never discussed is that at the start of the Cold War, Europe essentially agreed to gut its own defense industry, undertook not to form a pan EU military, commit to purchasing US arms, provide massive forward bases for US military and last but not least - become the first-strike target for nukes in any conflict between the USSSR and the US.
All this was in the distant past but important to remember as essential context.
Europe is justifiably pissed that we have just torn all of this up and have stepped out of the fight with an increasingly hostile Russia. It's really hard to convey just how pissed off Europe is over this.
They got the message, and we (the US) are about to lose out on $T of arms sales and our weapons systems are going face some really stiff and battle tested European competition.
Trump could reverse his tariffs tomorrow, but Europe has already taken a new course.
 
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OldMadBrit said:
I beg to differ.
The part of the equation that's never discussed is that at the start of the Cold War, Europe essentially agreed to gut its own defense industry, undertook not to form a pan EU military, commit to purchasing US arms, provide massive forward bases for US military and last but not least - become the first-strike target for nukes in any conflict between the USSSR and the US.
All this was in the distant past but important to remember as essential context.
Europe is justifiably pissed that we have just torn all of this up and have stepped out of the fight with an increasingly hostile Russia. It's really hard to convey just how pissed off Europe is over this.
They got the message, and we (the US) are about to lose out on $T of arms sales and our weapons systems are going face some really stiff and battle tested European competition.
Trump could reverse his tariffs tomorrow, but Europe has already taken a new course.
Click to expand...

Maybe, the Canadians I know are pissed too.
 
Sold some shares to shore up my savings and of course stocks are up after my limit order executed. Kinda like washing your bike resulting in rain I guess. 🤦‍♂️
 
OldMadBrit said:
I beg to differ.
The part of the equation that's never discussed is that at the start of the Cold War, Europe essentially agreed to gut its own defense industry, undertook not to form a pan EU military, commit to purchasing US arms, provide massive forward bases for US military and last but not least - become the first-strike target for nukes in any conflict between the USSSR and the US.
All this was in the distant past but important to remember as essential context.
Europe is justifiably pissed that we have just torn all of this up and have stepped out of the fight with an increasingly hostile Russia. It's really hard to convey just how pissed off Europe is over this.
They got the message, and we (the US) are about to lose out on $T of arms sales and our weapons systems are going face some really stiff and battle tested European competition.
Trump could reverse his tariffs tomorrow, but Europe has already taken a new course.
Click to expand...

I mean this is just not the right way of seeing things. Europe was making appropriate defense investments (>4% GDP) until 1990, and then over the next 35 years systematically reduced spending until they essentially were only left with bonsai armies. They even agreed to boost to 2% in 2014 and continued to fail to meet that target, miserably. Freeloading to highest degree. Now, a day late and a dollar short, they are finally ramping spending. This isn't just an American opinion, these are facts that European foreign policy wonks will freely admit. Now they have a reinvigorated Russia on their borders, producing tanks and artillery shells at 10X their industrial capacity.

I won't disagree that European citizens might now be alarmed and angry, but it's totally appropriate to ask why should we even care? What are Europe's options at this point? A grand alliance with China?
 
Despite "freeloading" Europe helped the US when they asked for help in the middle east.

A mistake, but they did it.

United States has surged ahead of all its major competitors. In 2008, the U.S. economy was about the same size as the euro zone’s; now, it is nearly twice the size.
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