Yeesh. Hope cooler heads can continue to prevail, but share the concern. My dad lives in Taiwan and is more and more fearful about a Chinese attack.
Sometimes, I think through various scenarios (usually after some
, lol). China is in kind of a tough spot with Taiwan. Maybe a chicken/egg thing, but mainland Chinese seem more and more assertive with Taiwan, and less awed by Taiwan's wealth (since China is increasingly wealthy, and sometimes ridiculously so). The CCP has fomented Taiwan-related "patriotism" over the years, so it has itself partly to blame for the populace's harder line.
There are a ton of risks though. China could well fail with an invasion. The world's reaction will be uncertain (would US, Japan, SK, Australia, etc. really get involved, and if so, how?). China's economy is integrated, and it would face all sorts of pressure, sanctions, etc. (global economy would immediately suffer drastic downturn). Blockade? Perhaps, but have these ever worked on a large, long-term scale? And, even if China successfully defeats Taiwan's military, you might have an insurgency on a huge scale (young Taiwanese largely do not identify as Chinese). Taiwan is not Hong Kong, in that Hong Kong is legally a Chinese territory, has no military, a compliant legislature/executive, etc.
From Taiwan's perspective, even the stated goal of holding out for a few weeks doesn't guarantee anything (see Crimea). If the initial days of an invasion look bleak for Taiwan, it might discourage foreign intervention. I think Taiwan's best bet is to resist any urge to declare independence (invasion would follow, like the next day), continue to develop economic ties with China, and perhaps adopt the "porcupine" defense strategy (fewer costly weapons like upgraded F16s and M1 tanks, and just stockpile missiles to destroy landing craft, etc.).
Again, yeesh.
? What weird scenario is in your head? The likely outcome is that the United States loses their global leadership role and when the Dollar ceases to become the global reserve currency, suffers a catastrophic debt management scenario similar to Germany after WWI.
