Can Anyone Stop Josh Hayes, and Who Can?

[Spec-ECU]

Just brushed up on this article over at RRW, which reminded me of how particularly impressed I've been with Hayes in the seasons post-Mladin/Spies era. And with the AMA Pro Racing season to start this weekend, I thought now's a good a time as any to have this discussion.

I still remember three seasons ago when Hayes had said that he wanted to do to the AMA SBK grid what Mladin had done before - domination. And I still vividly remember how that more or less came back and bit him in the rear big-time, with his 2011 title-winning year marred a little by the fact that Blake Young won more races than Hayes did en route to Hayes winning the title. It clearly got to Hayes, since he came back last year and finally had a dominating season - a proper one. So much so that I almost want to say that he broke Blake Young, cause Young seemed nothing like his 2011 self.

If Hayes wins the 2013 championship, he would be the first one in AMA history to take four consecutive titles.

But will he do it?

 

[stangmx13]

IMO, the only rider that could stop Hayes from winning another 'ship is Hayes himself. his entire package seems lightyears ahead of everyone else's... rider, machine, team, support, electronics, etc... thats its going to be near impossible for anyone to top that. after hearing him plenty of times on podcasts, that guy is smart, knows what hes doing, and knows how to improve himself and his machine. as long as he stays on the bike and injury free, 4 in a row is very very possible.

 

[Spec-ECU]

He really improved his program after 2011, and I've since pegged him as the paradigm of a mental rider. On any given race weekend, he sets a very ominous tone from First Practice to the Sunday checkered flag. I always thought that out on the track, he always imagined he was chasing Mladin.

I'd pay money to watch Mladin at his peak and Hayes go at it now from FP1 to the race.

 

[R1-Limited]

Anyone is beatable. Hayes is on his game for sure, but we wont know until the end of the season. It will be interesting as Hayes is getting older and with the younger getting more experience, who knows. I think the one thing that Hayes has that the other teams do not, is the money a full factory support brings. He has the best equipment out there right now.

 

[Map8]

Don't know what happened to Blake Young after Road Atlanta last year but that was it for competition other than Herrin showing form late in the season. Hayes is definitely the front runner but its a different field this season with an experienced Herrin along with Cardenas and Eslick on good bikes.

 

[Spec-ECU]

It will be interesting to see what Cardenas does returning to a (GSXR) Superbike since he was on the M4 GSXR1000. And Eslick now on a proper (read: "non-experimental" ) bike? Oh, it could be good.

Still. Even if Hayes didn't ramp up his program from last season, the rest of the grid would still have so much ground to make up.

 

[RaptorFA]

I am VERY interested to see what Martin Cardenas can do on the Superbike. The guy is a great rider but I don't know what he will do on the big bike. I think he can ride it as good as anyone on the grid. And clearly The Yamaha is the best bike on the grid. If the Zook can run with it and Cardenas doesn't have to go 11/10ths I look forward to these two doing battle all year long.

 

[veefereefer]

Seems like Young is a head case and Yosh decided they've seen enough. Cardenas has shown to be very tough on the 600 so I hope he can bring it on the big bike with support from Yosh. Eslick is always fun to watch and being back on a Zuki may give him the edge that he needs to at least challenge on occasion. Herrin had some good moments last year but when it really counts he seems to not have the same toughness as the other three. I just hope that AMA Pro can get another round or two secured and a freaking TV deal would be nice.

 

[stangmx13]

Hayes won the 2012 'ship by being the only guy that didnt consistently go slower at almost all tracks. any track where he was challenged was someone else figuring it out. but obviously, doing that all year is much harder than at just one or two tracks.

the R1 is the best bike on the grid because of Graves. they get some support from YamahaUSA, but its not a full factory effort like you see in WSBK (Aprilia, Ducati). I'm not even sure they get as much support as Kawasaki (mostly factory) or even Suzuki (hardly factory) in WSBK. but we've got an ez way to show that this year... Pegram. he'll be on an R1 this year, so if he can consistently challenge Herrin or Hayes, its a great bike. otherwise, we know that its all of Graves experience helping those guys get up front.

the GSXR and the R1 are both getting a bit old these days. its prob going to be difficult for both Cardenas and Eslick to improve themselves and their bikes to challenge Hayes because of that fact. i really wish someone in AMA put in some serious effort on the ZX (Rapp and Attack won't be running this year) since its arguably a little newer. the ZX littered the field in WSSTK last year so theres gotta be plenty of development knowledge out there for another team to use it for AMA.

 

[Spec-ECU]

the GSXR and the R1 are both getting a bit old these days. its prob going to be difficult for both Cardenas and Eslick to improve themselves and their bikes to challenge Hayes because of that fact.

With the right rider, a bike being a little long in the tooth can be a non-issue. See Checa circa Althea Ducati.

 

[Zerox]

Hayes is just plain better than the rest, it's certainly not the bike that's winning any races for him. Just like when Mladin was by far the best AMA rider and winning all those races and championships.

 

[stangmx13]

With the right rider, a bike being a little long in the tooth can be a non-issue. See Checa circa Althea Ducati.

true.

then lump on a few kilos and everything goes to shit. the 1198 was at the end of its development, everyone else improved, and Checa received the weight penalty. talk about fighting an uphill battle. while i dont think the final year of the 1198 was going to be great anyways, adding that weight penalty killed any chance Checa had of repeating... he simply had to push too hard to make up those few tenths, the new ones from everyone improving, each lap.

Hayes is clearly also a good example of the right rider on an old bike. he's said himself that the R1 is about done, so we'll c what he how he can improve this year. of course, starting miles ahead of everyone else is going to make things easier.

if AMA wants Hayes to not run away w/ the 'ship... just add a few kilos

 

[Spec-ECU]

if AMA wants Hayes to not run away w/ the 'ship... just add a few kilos

The current gen R1 has been unnecessarily heavy since 2009!

 

[Coyote]

Cardenas already was on the Superbike in 2011 and did win a race. He should be up there with Yoshimura supporting him. I think Josh Herrin should be better this year too. Last year he was just learning.

Josh Hayes should be competing on the World Level he will be AMA champ again.

 

[Spec-ECU]

Josh Hayes should be competing on the World Level he will be AMA champ again.

Yeah, funny that.

He's a hard sell given his age, DESPITE his accolades. And I'd even wager that while Hayes himself would like to compete at the world stage, it's going to take a hell of a deal and package for him to abandon his current ship, cause he's aged and mature enough at this point to actually think about moto-racing as a viable livelihood.

 

[stangmx13]

Cardenas already was on the Superbike in 2011 and did win a race. He should be up there with Yoshimura supporting him. I think Josh Herrin should be better this year too. Last year he was just learning.

Josh Hayes should be competing on the World Level he will be AMA champ again.

like MM is just learning in GP??

with regards to riders "just learning", IMO there are 3 levels of talent that are easily defined by how riders do when moving "up" a class.
- rider moves up and is at the front, able to perform just as they did in the lower class (Rossi, Lorenzo, Pedrosa)
- rider moves up and slowly improves year after year (Hayes, Nicky, Sykes)
- rider moves up and his level stagnates or even gets worse each outing (Sofuoglu, Tommy)
its def undecided what sort of talent Herrin is with regards to this, but i wasnt really impressed with his performance last year. he should have been the guy to win each of those races that Hayes didnt because Blake was having such a mindfucked year, but ya. some comments from Hayes during long interviews kind of shed some light on maybe why thats happening. i really hope he does improve this year.

Yeah, funny that.

He's a hard sell given his age, DESPITE his accolades. And I'd even wager that while Hayes himself would like to compete at the world stage, it's going to take a hell of a deal and package for him to abandon his current ship, cause he's aged and mature enough at this point to actually think about moto-racing as a viable livelihood.

yep.

doesnt Hayes have a 2yr contract w/ Graves for this year and next?? whether or not he performs well each season, i bet he retires after.

actually, he prob wont retire until Melissa does too

 

[Spec-ECU]

doesnt Hayes have a 2yr contract w/ Graves for this year and next?? whether or not he performs well each season, i bet he retires after.

actually, he prob wont retire until Melissa does too

Mladin was 37 years old when he retired in 2009. Hayes is 37 now going on 38, so maybe. Damn geezers padding up their retirement fund!

 

[fast4ward]

Sure. He could have a bad year with mechanical problems etc. opening the door to opportunity for another rider .....

Remember 2002 ? Mladin had a nightmare year and Hayden "won" it

 

[RaptorFA]

I was thinking the same about Josh's age. He's going to be 38 in a couple of weeks, so you have to wonder where he is at from a mental standpoint with regard to moving up into the world stage. I would say that it's probably not in the cards. But that is not to say that he has not had a great career, because I think he has.

I sure would love to see him get one more crack at a wildcard MotoGP ride and really make a go of it this time, like bag a top ten. That would be awsome.

As to the other Josh, I have to agree with others that the jury is still out on the kid. He made a lot of mistakes last year. By rights he should have been in Hayes' draft for much of the latter half of the season. But I'm keeping an open mind and hoping he really comes on this year. Chances are the level of competition will improve by a good amount this season. Again, optimistic, but I think it's possible.

 

[khill]

I believe Martin will be a serious force if he can keep it on two wheels..Last year, Hayes wasn't much faster than 2011...if at all, mainly everyone else slowed down...

Ken