Three rounds left (two in NJMP, one in Laguna Seca), and Hayes is sitting in third behind Cardenas and Herrin. Hayes' six wins - five of them consecutively - would be impressive compared to the stats of the other two, if it weren't for his three finishes in 15th and below. Meanwhile, neither Herrin or Cardenas have finished a race below 6th place.
There's still a healthy 96 points in total up for grabs, but Hayes is going to have to win all of them - win all three races and bonus points for pole position and most laps led - to win his 4th consecutive title. If I did my math right, Herrin has a chance to bag the title if he wins just one of the next three races, and finishes the rest in second.