Santa Clara County Lockdown

[afmotorsports]

The gov stated that at least 25 million Californians will be infected in 8 weeks, 56 days, hence martial law.

25,000,000/56= 446,428.572 cases per day. Is that possible?

So, this means there must have been quite a few infected before martial law. But the numbers do not reflect this.

Fear mongering........

I don't even know where to begin... Are you under the impression that the spread of this virus is a linear function?? You might need a little time brushing up on math and exponential curves, that's why we have a 'hockey stick' effect in a pandemic.

Italy had nearly 800 deaths yesterday and over 53,000 confirmed cases, which is about one in a thousand for their country (one in ten thousand is already dead from this virus). Exactly a month prior, they were at 21 cases. The day before that, February 20th, they were at 4 cases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51991972
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[Entoptic]

The gov stated that at least 25 million Californians will be infected in 8 weeks, 56 days, hence martial law.

25,000,000/56= 446,428.572 cases per day. Is that possible?

So, this means there must have been quite a few infected before martial law. But the numbers do not reflect this.

Fear mongering........

1. Yes those numbers can happen. Go YouTube how a flu or virus spreads. If I’m infected, run my nose and touch a door knob to the grocery store in which 5k people touch that day it’s possible. Now repeat that at 100 different places and you can see how easily this spreads

2. We are not under martial law even though the NG has been deployed throughout CA.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Bay-Area-congressman-in-critical-condition-with-15148542.php

I also like to be first but today I'm not enjoying being first. My friends father in Boston is in the ICU, he has covid-19 and based on underlying factors the outcome is not good.

 

[Gary856]

The gov stated that at least 25 million Californians will be infected in 8 weeks, 56 days, hence martial law.

25,000,000/56= 446,428.572 cases per day. Is that possible?

So, this means there must have been quite a few infected before martial law. But the numbers do not reflect this.

Fear mongering........

As already said, the infections does NOT increase linearly; it increases exponentially. Let's use an example of one person got the virus on day 0 (starting point), and each infected person infects 2 others per day. Seems reasonable?

Day 0: 1 infected
Day 1: 2 infected
Day 2: 4 infected
Day 3: 8 infected
.
.
.
Day 10: 1,024 infected (Not too bad yet?)
.
.
.
Day 15: 32,768 infected (= 2 to the power of 15)
.
.
.
Day 20: 1 million (= 2 to the power of 20)
Day 21: 2 million (= 2 to the power of 21)
Day 22: 4.2 million (= 2 to the power of 22)
Day 23: 8.4 million (= 2 to the power of 23)
Day 24: 16.8 million (= 2 to the power of 24)
Day 25: 33.5 million (This still does not scare you?)


Using your number of 25 million in 8 weeks (= 56 days), the reverse calculation is: 25 million to the root of 56 = 1.3555, lower than "2" used in the example above. This means if the infection multiples by a factor of 1.3555 per day exponentially over 56 days, just 8 weeks after the start, you'll have 25 million people infected at that point.

Doesn't that seem possible? Shouldn't we try to slow that down much more?

 

[afmotorsports]

As already said, the infections does NOT increase linearly. It increases exponentially. Let's use an example of one person got the virus on day 0 (starting point), and each infected person infects 2 others per day. Seems reasonable?
.
.
.

Very well put!

However, we are not starting out at 0; the US as of today is over 29,000 and if you plug in the UCSF number of 2.8 then things get ugly very, very quickly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[ZCrow]

1) recreational riding is "non essential travel" and we're being asked to not do that.

2) "technically" splitting lanes at 65 MPH while traffic isn't illegal, but that doesn't make it incredibly fucking stupid and selfish.

Except you are wrong. I quote directly from the Office of Gavin Newsom.

• Continue with outdoor activities.
• As long as you practice social distancing, we encourage you to continue your outdoor activities such as walks, runs and yardwork, to the extent your health allows it.

Source: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/03/16/california-issues-directive-to-fight-covid-19/

Now we can debate whether a solo country ride is equivalent to going for a walk or a hike, but you have narrowed the directive beyond what it actually is. Not, saying it won't get that point, but you statements do not line up with the facts. Social distancing is the important part. You can easily maintain social distancing on a motorcycle ride even if you have to stop for gas or pee.

 

[gixxerjeff]

Gary it's lost to these people. Just take notes of all the stupid posts and when the final death toll comes out and we hear about multiple deaths from BARF we can public shame these posts. That's my plan.

SHAME SHAME SHAME!

^^^^^^^^^^^
So much this.
The ignorant, fact defying hubris in this thread is absolutely frightening.

 

[nbean16]

Gary it's lost to these people. Just take notes of all the stupid posts and when the final death toll comes out and we hear about multiple deaths from BARF we can public shame these posts. That's my plan.

SHAME SHAME SHAME!

That's your plan? Wait till barfers die so you can say I told you so to some people that went on motorcycle rides? How fucking pathetic.

 

[Entoptic]

That's your plan? Wait till barfers die so you can say I told you so to some people that went on motorcycle rides? How fucking pathetic.

public shaming is a bitch isn't it.

 

[Dr_SLO]

The gov stated that at least 25 million Californians will be infected in 8 weeks, 56 days, hence martial law.

25,000,000/56= 446,428.572 cases per day. Is that possible?

So, this means there must have been quite a few infected before martial law. But the numbers do not reflect this.

Fear mongering........

This poor example of maths was also raised and equally outed and rebutted a few days ago in the coronavirus thread in the sink....

Let’s have some fun with numbers.....the Gov stated that 25 million in this state will be infected in the next 8 weeks. 8 weeks is also 56 days

So 25,000,000/56= 446,428.571 cases per day......

That's not how logrithmics work.

It's not that number every day. It's exponential doubling every few days. That's also provided that no measures are in place, which they are. So hopefully they will flatten the curve and not be so drastic.

Math and doubling. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

That's not quite how it'll work. Project the current number of cases in CA (1,234) by doubling them every 4 days (56/4 = 14) and you'll end up at about 20M (1,234x2=2,468; x2=4,936... perform an additional 12 times = ~20M) . This will only happen if countermeasures are NOT in place. Fortunately they are so it'll take longer than 8 weeks; the 25M number is unlikely to be reached if counter measures are kept in place.

EDIT: Currently, for the entire country, the doubling rate of cases is every 2.25 days. The major caveat here is that testing is being ramped up but by the sound of it only severe cases are being tested. Someone correct this statement if I'm wrong.

heres better fun with math. numbers are for the entire US, taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

y = a*b^t

y = infected
a = number of infected at day 0
b = some constant
t = # of days

lets use the last 6 known days to figure out b:
13789 = 2247*b^6
b = (13789/2247)^(1/6)
b = 1.35307

validation: todays count is currently at 19522
y = 2247*(1.35307)^(6+1)
y = 18657
our current count is WORSE than this curve.

what about 56 days from now?
y = 2247*(1.35307)^(6+56)
y = 311.5 billion

obviously thats not possible. this very high 'b' isnt sustainable in a real population. the easiest reason is that an individual stuck in their neighborhood runs out of uninfected people to infect, eventually.

I won't be surprised if this curve could be valid for 7 days. so how many will be infected then?
y = 2247*(1.35307)^(6+7)
y = 114490 infected
this is reasonable. Italy will probably be here by Monday and our curve is steeper already.

ill be a little surprised if its valid for 14 days:
y = 2247*(1.35307)^(6+14)
y = 950623 infected
no clue if this is reasonable. I hope not.

We get that it seems like fearmongering but please take some time to listen to a medical professional that is on the front line in the current epicenter of the US outbreak in NYC. Daniel Griffin is a very level headed individual and gives a great account of what has been happening there in the first 53 minutes of this podcast. http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-593/

 

[bojangle]

I'm sitting at home like the rest of you SIP mania warriors, so there.

Now what? We just sit around and feel good about "doing our part" for several weeks? For all you black plaque fearmongers, please simmer down so we can have a productive conversation about what say April 4th or 11th might look like...I really want to know!

I'm not an infectious disease expert and have never once said the SIP isn't a reasonable initial response, but what I fear is in two or three weeks this aggressive virus is going to take hold again and what will have we accomplished besides a recession and debt? Aren't we just kicking the rush to hospitals into April? Please educate me what will be different in 2-3 weeks without suggesting I'm selfish, ignorant dick for wanting to know why we're doing this.

Nothing. The SIP will be extended.

Jon, I've known you for a really long time, you shouldn't feel attacked, but you need to get educated on this stuff TODAY and act accordingly! Did you follow the links I posted in post #84?
https://bayarearidersforum.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10543972&postcount=84

Here's a great TED Talk from Bill Gates:
https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en#t-506696

We don't have weeks and months to debate the merits of taking this pandemic seriously, literally every single day counts! It's not "fearmongering", that's why so many countries across the globe have taken such dramatic actions. These are calculated moves, knowing damn well that in the short term, we are absolutely CRUSHING the global economy, not just the US! Such decisions are not taken lightly, they are NOT politically motivated (despite all the idiotic memes on Facebook) and this virus spreads incredibly fast *before it becomes symptomatic!!*, which could make the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic look like a walk in the park (that one infected a quarter of the world's population and about 10% died, which was 50 million people at that time).

Guys, for the love of God, we are going through a historic period for mankind, and countries across the globe are taking dramatic action to try to stop the death of tens or even hundreds of millions of people. This is coming from infectious disease scientists, not from politicians. Until a cure and/or vaccine is available (hopefully 12-18 months), my understanding is that we might go through multiple waves of self-quarantine. Yes, this sucks royally, I hate living like this just as much as anyone else, but my family defected from communism when I was a little kid and my in-laws lived through the Nazi bombings in London, so people have endured far more difficult times than us just following orders to sit our ass home and do our part in stopping the spread of this virus.

Listen to this man. Please!!!

Totally this.^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Last I heard, we still have Freedom of Assembly guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution.

Dude, I love freedom as much as the next guy. This isn't about freedom, or the Constitution. These are temporary measures to deal with a deadly public health crisis. If we all don't listen to the scientists we will be out own worst enemy. The threat is invisible. Please take it seriously.

 

[ontherearwheel]

Consider this.........The gov made the statement that 25,000,000 California’s will be infected in 8 weeks......56 days which works out to over 440,000 case per day.....which was his reasoning for martial law.

That’s one hell of a infection rate.

So draw a line, but a dot in the middle to indicted the date the gov made that statement.

The virus was here before that dot on the line.....which means that infection rate was also there.

Do the current numbers really reflect the infection rate needed to meet the gov statement?

Remember we are a week into it.......

 

[UDRider]

I don't think you even bothered to read or understand anything posted above.

 

[Whammy]

So those who don't really know, and some of the most recent posts have been posting that we are under martial law.
WE ARE NOT UNDER MARTIAL LAW.

Yes we have never experienced this before. It could be considered uncertain times. We are taking precautions to slow the spread of this virus.
Some of us former Military have been in Martial Law conditions in other countries. Trust me we are far far far from it.
Don't feed peoples fear.
Live your life, and don't chime in with something you have heard and you are guessing of what going on.
No more playing telephone and creating more conspiracy.. its not necessary.
Whammy has 5 More seasons of Sanford and Son to watch and lots of track driving to do.

 

[Dr_SLO]

Consider this.........The gov made the statement that 25,000,000 California’s will be infected in 8 weeks......56 days which works out to over 440,000 case per day.....which was his reasoning for martial law.

Let's try some humour...

 

[Mario]

Good infographic (animated in link) on exponential growth and what happens when people stay at home

source: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/2...t-does-level-two-mean-and-why-does-it-matter/

 

[accident-prone]

Okay, so is anybody out there riding on day 7 of the shelter in place? If so, what are you doing, where are you going, and are you going in groups? Has anyone stopped you?

I'm curious. I was okay with letting the bikes sit for a few weeks, but I work in the schools, and it's sounding more and more like this thing will be going on until at least June...

 

[reasonable_max]

I think there's a difference between taking a ride and thinking that this whole thing is a government conspiracy.

Riding your bike responsibly is probably less risky than going to safeway atm. Definitely less risky than all the people at the beach and on the grizzly peak lookouts.

I rode around this morning to get some bread at acme. 24 and 80 were a dream -- just enough cars to have to pay attention but easy to keep away from. I didn't notice any military presence, so I guess they're trying to be really inconspicuous about the whole martial law thing that we're totally under.

The line at acme was short and people kept their distance from one another. Everything seems to be alright so if you've been cooped up in your house for a while and are nervous about what's going on there's no need to worry about society crumbling just yet.

 

[ontherearwheel]

Just wait.......

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/southern-california-police-use-drones-amid-coronavirus-lockdown

In this point in time.......the police are equipped just like the military.

It doesn’t matter if police with a ar15 tells a business to close or a soldier with a ar15 does so.

The end result is the same forced compliance by force.

 

[Surj]

Just wait.......

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/southern-california-police-use-drones-amid-coronavirus-lockdown

In this point in time.......the police are equipped just like the military.

It doesn’t matter if police with a ar15 tells a business to close or a soldier with a ar15 does so.

The end result is the same forced compliance by force.

Your resilience in the face of facts is... well, not impressive, exactly.

Never mind that you apparently expect a Fox news article to be taken seriously. Did you even read it beyond the headline? There's nothing there to support your fantastical claims about martial law. To wit:

“We have not traditionally mounted speakers to our drones, but ...  if we need to cover a large area to get an announcement out, or if there were a crowd somewhere that we needed to disperse -- we could do it without getting police officers involved,” said Capt. Vern Sallee, according to the Financial Times.

One of the reasons for the drones will be to monitor the homeless population in the city, who Sallee believes have a lack of reliable information on the severity of the coronavirus outbreak.

“We need to tell them we actually have resources for them -- they are vulnerable right now,” Sallee said, according to the paper. “It might be impractical or unsafe for our officers to be put into those areas.”

Look, like any sane person I have serious concerns about the long-increasing militarization of the police. But surely you can find some whack-ass "news" article to actually "support" your fearmongering. Under your current defintion ("doesn’t matter if police with a ar15 tells a business to close or a soldier with a ar15") we've been under martial law for some time already.

 

[gixxerjeff]

I liked the part where the article mentioned Chinese drones as being a security threat. Even if that wasn't the intended point, leave it to Fox news to word it that way.