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Santa Clara County Lockdown

I'm sitting at home like the rest of you SIP mania warriors, so there.

Now what? We just sit around and feel good about "doing our part" for several weeks? For all you black plaque fearmongers, please simmer down so we can have a productive conversation about what say April 4th or 11th might look like...I really want to know!

I'm not an infectious disease expert and have never once said the SIP isn't a reasonable initial response, but what I fear is in two or three weeks this aggressive virus is going to take hold again and what will have we accomplished besides a recession and debt? Aren't we just kicking the rush to hospitals into April? Please educate me what will be different in 2-3 weeks without suggesting I'm selfish, ignorant dick for wanting to know why we're doing this.
 
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jbawden said:
I'm sitting at home like the rest of you SIP mania warriors, so there.

Now what? We just sit around and feel good about "doing our part" for several weeks? For all you black plaque fearmongers, please simmer down so we can have a productive conversation about what say April 4th or 11th might look like...I really want to know!

I'm not an infectious disease expert and have never once said the SIP isn't a reasonable initial response, but what I fear is in two or three weeks this aggressive virus is going to take hold again and what will have we accomplished besides a recession and debt? Aren't we just kicking the rush to hospitals into April? Please educate me what will be different in 2-3 weeks without suggesting I'm selfish, ignorant dick for wanting to know why we're doing this.
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Assuming during the entire pandemic 100k (just picking a number) people need hospitalization, one objective is to have those people show up at the hospital over a longer period of time as opposed to all at once, which will overwhelm the healthcare system and will have a ripple effect to many other areas.

Reading/Watching international news and looking at the C19 data (infections vs death vs recovery per country) makes it real easy to figure out what works and what not. Stop the virus spread early or pay the price later.
 
jbawden said:
I'm sitting at home like the rest of you SIP mania warriors, so there.

Now what? We just sit around and feel good about "doing our part" for several weeks? For all you black plaque fearmongers, please simmer down so we can have a productive conversation about what say April 4th or 11th might look like...I really want to know!

I'm not an infectious disease expert and have never once said the SIP isn't a reasonable initial response, but what I fear is in two or three weeks this aggressive virus is going to take hold again and what will have we accomplished besides a recession and debt? Aren't we just kicking the rush to hospitals into April? Please educate me what will be different in 2-3 weeks without suggesting I'm selfish, ignorant dick for wanting to know why we're doing this.
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Jon, I've known you for a really long time, you shouldn't feel attacked, but you need to get educated on this stuff TODAY and act accordingly! Did you follow the links I posted in post #84?
https://bayarearidersforum.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10543972&postcount=84

Here's a great TED Talk from Bill Gates:
https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en#t-506696

We don't have weeks and months to debate the merits of taking this pandemic seriously, literally every single day counts! It's not "fearmongering", that's why so many countries across the globe have taken such dramatic actions. These are calculated moves, knowing damn well that in the short term, we are absolutely CRUSHING the global economy, not just the US! Such decisions are not taken lightly, they are NOT politically motivated (despite all the idiotic memes on Facebook) and this virus spreads incredibly fast *before it becomes symptomatic!!*, which could make the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic look like a walk in the park (that one infected a quarter of the world's population and about 10% died, which was 50 million people at that time).

Guys, for the love of God, we are going through a historic period for mankind, and countries across the globe are taking dramatic action to try to stop the death of tens or even hundreds of millions of people. This is coming from infectious disease scientists, not from politicians. Until a cure and/or vaccine is available (hopefully 12-18 months), my understanding is that we might go through multiple waves of self-quarantine. Yes, this sucks royally, I hate living like this just as much as anyone else, but my family defected from communism when I was a little kid and my in-laws lived through the Nazi bombings in London, so people have endured far more difficult times than us just following orders to sit our ass home and do our part in stopping the spread of this virus.
 
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jbawden said:
I'm sitting at home like the rest of you SIP mania warriors, so there.

Now what? We just sit around and feel good about "doing our part" for several weeks? For all you black plaque fearmongers, please simmer down so we can have a productive conversation about what say April 4th or 11th might look like...I really want to know!

I'm not an infectious disease expert and have never once said the SIP isn't a reasonable initial response, but what I fear is in two or three weeks this aggressive virus is going to take hold again and what will have we accomplished besides a recession and debt? Aren't we just kicking the rush to hospitals into April? Please educate me what will be different in 2-3 weeks without suggesting I'm selfish, ignorant dick for wanting to know why we're doing this.
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Thanks for chilling at the house. I know it sounds super silly but that one act is the defining factor of how this virus will stop spreading.

In the mean time we sit around, chill and hope that the seeding of the virus stops.

The idea is a sleepy cat infection rate. Think of the arc a cat has when it's sleeping. That arc won't overrun our medical system. It's a slow build up and slow decline. If we don't take this seriously and stay indoors that arc will look like a stretching cat, think scarred cat. That arc will over run the medical system with lots of sick and lots of people that could be saved will die. People that had nothing to do with the virus will die as there are no medical services to provide for the basic stuff.

^ That right there is why I choose to stay inside, currently day 15.
 
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I know your a passionate dude Alex, but I don't think most of America is quite where you are on this. Say what you want about the American spirit, but simply can't imagine as a country we're going to sit around for 18 months and watch the world melt down out fear of what might happen. Also, all these projections and about infection trends and mortality don't take into account disruptive medical, technological, and behavioral changes that are already happening. I'm down with the SIP for now, but speaking for humanity, there needs to be a sustainable solution in the next few weeks.
 
Perhaps some folks need to buy a project bike, to keep themselves occupied during this time.
 
bunnygoat said:
Go ride your fucking bike. I'm not hiding inside for 3 weeks.
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Totally this.^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Last I heard, we still have Freedom of Assembly guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution.:thumbup
 
Isn't America great? We have all these opinions and the freedom to express them.

I think this whole thing is going to be a good learning experience for the country, and the world. Though humans are a tough lot.

I'm gonna go clean the garage. i think there are some motorcycles down there. After I put up the chicken broth i just made.
 
jbawden said:
I know your a passionate dude Alex, but I don't think most of America is quite where you are on this. Say what you want about the American spirit, but simply can't imagine as a country we're going to sit around for 18 months and watch the world melt down out fear of what might happen. Also, all these projections and about infection trends and mortality don't take into account disruptive medical, technological, and behavioral changes that are already happening. I'm down with the SIP for now, but speaking for humanity, there needs to be a sustainable solution in the next few weeks.
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Jon, I'm nobody, this is not about me, it's not even about the US, the whole thing is way bigger than anything we've seen in our lifetimes. Did you ever see governments across the world take such drastic measures for SARs or Ebola or swine flu or any other virus? No. Shouldn't that tell you something???

Did you actually read the links I gave you? China was able to reverse the trend in about two months by putting their population on lockdown. Not for 18 months, but for a few weeks. If they see another outbreak, they'll probably do it again, only for a few weeks. For now, that strategy seems to be the best defense until a cure and vaccine is in place, which is supposed to take at least 12 months. Hopefully it's sooner, but it's not going to be weeks, and then they have to produce it on mass scale to inoculate billions of people.

Sadly, too many people are still walking around claiming it's a hoax or that it's no different than the flu, completely failing to accept what scientists and the medical community is telling them. The deaths we've seen so far are only the tip of the iceberg. Although my family escaped from a totalitarian government, in this particular situation those countries will likely fare better than the US because when a totalitarian government told them to park their ass home and stay home, they complied! In Italy, not so much (almost 5,000 dead, they passed up China). In Spain, not so much. In the US?? 'Oh hell no, I need throttle therapy, and I'm going to the beach for Spring Break, 'cause 'Murica!' :facepalm We are now #4 in the world, passing up Germany, Iran and South Korea.

Good luck, my friend. Before the end of this year, you will likely know somebody who died due to this virus. At the rate we're going, we will be more like Italy than China.
 
When a news article is titled......”cornavirus killing more than a person a hour in New York ”.....it’s fear mongering......especially when the article does not support the title.
 
ontherearwheel said:
When a news article is titled......”cornavirus killing more than a person a hour in New York ”.....it’s fear mongering......especially when the article does not support the title.
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What article are you reading, dude? Here's NPR:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/21/8195...-as-new-york-city-becomes-u-s-virus-epicenter

7,500 cases in NYC right now, and a week ago the entire state had 800. If you bothered to read the links I posted, most people aren't tested until about day 10 after they get the virus, so for 9 days they're walking around and spreading it all over the place, in large part due to the fact that they don't know they have it. It's asymptomatic in the early stages!! And that's why it's spreading like crazy.

Please come back to this thread in a week or two and remind us all this was just fearmongering.
 
I found a few articles like that. They are claiming it killed 14 people in the span of 8 hours. Is your issue that it took them days/weeks to get sick and eventually die and it just so happened that 14 died in an 8 hour period or do you have some other issue with it?
 
seadog said:
Checked with my doggo tonight and she says I'm essential. Food, walks and belly rubs so that's settled.

Left China Basin area tonight (Friday) around 5:40 heading for Benicia. Absolutely NO traffic. I think I stuck the cruise control at 80 and that was it. 80-580-24-680-780. Was kind of freaky. Not Omega Man freaky, but still...
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I made it from Mission Bay to Richmond in 20 minutes driving a car at 5pm a couple days ago, was almost scary actually going that fast on the bay bridge.

The bay feels a lot smaller without traffic.
 
Gas was 2.58 at Costco and no lines at the pump I can get used to this! I went and filled up my van and cars. I've never seen gas so cheap in as long as I can remember.

I heard there is a lot less pollution now also. I have to say the air quality sucks here, because when I am out in the mountains or somewhere farther from civilization I feel I can breathe a lot better.
 
Eric B said:
Perhaps some folks need to buy a project bike, to keep themselves occupied during this time.
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I would totally like to do this, but it would seem that the act of buying/selling motorcycles would be a violation of current shelter in place orders.
 
afmotorsports said:
It won't. Guaranteed. Do your homework.

UCSF lecture: (hour long but worth watching)

https://lecture.ucsf.edu/ets/Play/2...-a8UkW6IWGowjT9y5fi1ThXLIbJuq7qHvpZ3VL8vvj4HQ

Thomas Pueyo analysis, from Khan Academy: (explains statistical data and seriousness of the situation)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_...ZS8NxbNjzDECFK_tq95Xolsk16njoAChMRuKs33pSmJIg
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I watched both video links last night, and actually felt better afterward knowing there's science behind this madness. Rational scientific approach and clear messaging are powerful. I think it's worth sharing some of the key slides from the 3/18 UCSF presentation as a public message:

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This is from the UCSF discussion on hospital protective gear strategy:

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I came across this on Business Insider

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The gov stated that at least 25 million Californians will be infected in 8 weeks, 56 days, hence martial law.

25,000,000/56= 446,428.572 cases per day. Is that possible?

So, this means there must have been quite a few infected before martial law. But the numbers do not reflect this.

Fear mongering........
 
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