tzrider
Write Only User
I think everyone is going to forget about it inside of a year.
-
There has been a recent cluster of spammers accessing BARFer accounts and posting spam. To safeguard your account, please consider changing your password. It would be even better to take the additional step of enabling 2 Factor Authentication (2FA) on your BARF account. Read more here.
VW "Clean" Diesel not really clean
- Thread starter Akira-R
- Start date
I think everyone is going to forget about it inside of a year.
Blankpage
alien
BP stock rebounded fairly well despite its fines and the current price of oil
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2004
- Location
- Charming
- Moto(s)
- bitchin trike with oxygen
- Name
- Piney
- BARF perks
- AMA #: 2815981
strongly agree..... or secretly admire these "captains of industry" for their audacity
Archimedes
Fire Watcher
But I doubt investors will forget about a $20-50 billion liability, particularly for a company that only has about $50 million in cash on hand today, is currently about 66% leveraged, is growing slowly and making relatively small profits. The market has priced the damage at about $40 billion, which is probably relatively accurate in my opinion. Given the poor performance of VW in general lately, I wouldn't be rushing money into this stock simply on the argument that the market overreacted. There's just too much downside. It's roulette.
Blankpage
alien
Honda & Toyota have been almost flat for a decade so not giving me much confidence in VW.
The parts suppliers that have taken a hit over this might be a better play.
The parts suppliers that have taken a hit over this might be a better play.
Archimedes
Fire Watcher
While it's not even comparable given the differences in product/market, BP's value has never recovered from the deepwater horizon spill. It's market cap was $175 billion when that happened and it never recovered back above $150 billion, and even that it only did for a fairly brief window during late 13 early 14. And when you consider the increase in revenue, the true recovery in the multiple was nil. BP's value was impacted dollar for dollar and then some for the fines and damages they paid.
Reli
Well-known member
Not to mention VW product lineup is stale and overly conservative, IMO. Every new car they come out with looks nearly identical to the old ones. I wouldn't doubt if Audi was responsible for more than half their profit.
GAJ
Well-known member
Me too.
Take a look at Toyota's stock during their trials.
Came right back after a few years.
Not like I'm gonna mortgage the house or anything.
OaklandF4i
Darwin's exception
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2002
- Location
- San Francisco and Lake County
- Moto(s)
- Husqvarna FE350, TE300, a vintage CR390, and BMW R1200GS
- Name
- CJ
Damn... bad VW... bad!
Kudos to International Council on Clean Transportation, West Virginia University, CARB, and the EPA. Yeh.. I said kudos to CARB.
I am old enough to remember what CA looked liked before emissions. I like my cleaner air. 
Had the EPA been gutted of its teeth like the N.H.T.S.A has been by auto industry lobbyist and short sighted politicians, this never would have come about. Good NYtimes article.
25% of VWs car sold in the US are diesel, thats a big impact. I understand in Europe its more like 50%, and that will be a HUGE impact. While I believe that the Euro emission standards are a little looser than ours, I still cant imagine them meeting those either. I am sure they are being looked at closely there now too. Future doesnt look bright for VW in the near term.
Maybe we all need to get back to considering smaller, lighter, vehicles with less powerful engines. Give me a small cheap gas pickup that gets 35+mpg to haul my bikes. I mean like late 70's small. Original Datsun Toyota size. I'm ok with a little engine of 1.6 or 1.8l and 6spd tranny. Dont need to go 100mph or pull wake board boat. Its what started the truck craze in the first place with cheap affordable utility. Or small lightweight cars. We used to regularly get 45 mpg on ski trips in college driving buddies CRX HF.... in the 80's!
No fancy technology, diesels, blah blah..... just simple, lightweight, small engined vehicles. rant off....
Kudos to International Council on Clean Transportation, West Virginia University, CARB, and the EPA. Yeh.. I said kudos to CARB.
I am old enough to remember what CA looked liked before emissions. I like my cleaner air. Had the EPA been gutted of its teeth like the N.H.T.S.A has been by auto industry lobbyist and short sighted politicians, this never would have come about. Good NYtimes article.
25% of VWs car sold in the US are diesel, thats a big impact. I understand in Europe its more like 50%, and that will be a HUGE impact. While I believe that the Euro emission standards are a little looser than ours, I still cant imagine them meeting those either. I am sure they are being looked at closely there now too. Future doesnt look bright for VW in the near term.
Maybe we all need to get back to considering smaller, lighter, vehicles with less powerful engines. Give me a small cheap gas pickup that gets 35+mpg to haul my bikes. I mean like late 70's small. Original Datsun Toyota size. I'm ok with a little engine of 1.6 or 1.8l and 6spd tranny. Dont need to go 100mph or pull wake board boat. Its what started the truck craze in the first place with cheap affordable utility. Or small lightweight cars. We used to regularly get 45 mpg on ski trips in college driving buddies CRX HF.... in the 80's!
No fancy technology, diesels, blah blah..... just simple, lightweight, small engined vehicles. rant off....
951dude
Active member
Nice idea, unfortunately safety standards prohibit that fantasy.
Archimedes
Fire Watcher
GAJ
Well-known member
I can find articles agreeing with your stance and articles agreeing with mine.
Hell, the airbag company is paying a whopping fine of $14,000 per day for dragging their feet on a recall that has the potential to kill more people than have already died.
I think the fine will not be anywhere near what is being bandied about.
They were dumb, stupid and arrogant, no question.
Will they be back?
You betcha.
Hey, they survived WWII!
Is it worth mortgaging the house?
No way?
$10k?
Sure, why not.
GAJ
Well-known member
My '76 Rabbit was a tin can.
Archimedes
Fire Watcher
Toyota has the largest market capitalization and enterprise value of any automaker in the world. By a very wide margin. It also makes almost double the operating profit that VW makes, on near identical revenue. The small fine Toyota paid pales in comparison to what VW is facing or it's ability to deal with it.
Cycle61
What the shit is this...
Watching it closely as well.
Because I agree with this.
But actually, BP is down something like 50% from where it was at the time.
Considering that VAG pulled in over 202 billion Euros in 2014 ($225 billion dollars), I don't think an $18 billion dollar fine is going to sting them as much as some folks here think it will. I agree that in a year or less, this will largely be forgotten. People have forgotten about GM's recent fuck ups where people actually died sooner than that.
Last edited:
FlewbyU
Active member
The long term ramifications for VW far exceed the 7.5 bil they set aside for this. Hell Ford set aside 5 bil and that was just for replacing defective tires.
Here is a summary of the fines and costs as I predict.
VW cannot simply re-code the cars to pass, they will have to refit Add Blue systems that will cost about 5k each at 11 million cars worldwide that is about 50 billion. (2.5 bil in USA alone)
Lawsuits from owners that were duped figure just for the USA alone if you gave each owner $2500 that would cost VW about 1.25 bil. Recently Kia/Hyundai settled a class action for claiming their cars got a few MPG than they really got and had to pay each owner about $500, so $2500 for flat out lying to people and claiming they were clean and green is not unreasonable.
If you take that number and apply it to the 11 million effected cars you are talking about 27.5 billion in costs.
Then you have the EPA and CARB fines that will likely be in the billions, and now that Europe is getting on the bandwagon the total fines could be 10 to 20 billion total.
If you take the costs to fix 11 million cars at 50 billion, class action lawsuits that could run 27.5 billion and the government fines that could be 10 billion. VW could be looking down the barrel of costs near 85 billion after this all said and done.
That does not even begin to total the loss of reputation for the company, which at this point is as low as it could ever get. Given the market has devalued the stock by 40% in two days, I think it fair to say that people that know what is going on have agreed this company is fucked. In all likelihood the stock will continue to decline and some other company will buy them out and clean house.
This situation makes the Audi unintended acceleration problems in the 80s look like a walk in the park, and in that case they proved in court they were not wrong and it still nearly BK Audi in the USA.
VW never fully recovers from this.
Archimedes
Fire Watcher
Again, GM's exposure was much lower and their stock hasn't exactly performed well either. There isn't an auto stock out there I would call a buy right now.