VW "Clean" Diesel not really clean

[Archimedes]

VW never fully recovers from this.

And they're losing money on new cars every day that they've halted sales on in the U.S.

This has the potential to be a company crippler, not with certainty, but enough potential that I think the stock is a very risky proposition, without big upside.

 

[tzrider]

Watching it closely as well.

I think something to watch for is whether they ever come up with a branding strategy. They really don't have one right now. It has a lot to do with the latent dissatisfaction the board had with the now ex-CEO and they need to rectify it. Because they don't really position themselves, the public positions them instead, and we all have different ideas about what VW is.

 

[Blankpage]

But actually, BP is down something like 50% from where it was at the time.

BP stock today still is a few buck higher than it was June 09 immediately after the spill. It was down to $26.
By fall 2011 it had rebounded 85%. It is currently down big in the past year because of low oil prices, just like all energy stocks.
For a while BP was a trade, not a longterm investment. Maybe VW's stock behaves similarly. I won't be taking that bet.

 

[Kornholio]

Again, GM's exposure was much lower and their stock hasn't exactly performed well either. There isn't an auto stock out there I would call a buy right now.

And people still outright died from the mistakes. Mistakes that GM knew about and didn't fix. They may not be what they once were, but it didn't tank the company. I'm not willing to throw in the towel on VAG just because of this event. No one here knows what's going to happen. We're all just basing our opinions off of what happened with Toyota and others. Those events aren't the same as this. The CEO walked, sure. I'm not surprised. However, whoever steps in is going to continue to downplay the situation and also plead down whatever punishments are levied. There's no way they're going to pay the full amount of the fines being tossed around. The biggest cost they're going to absorb is whether they repair or replace the customer's vehicles in the field.

 

[GAJ]

And they're losing money on new cars every day that they've halted sales on in the U.S.

This has the potential to be a company crippler, not with certainty, but enough potential that I think the stock is a very risky proposition, without big upside.

Let's check back in 5 years, (that's my time horizon), and you can tell me "I told you so."

It does make you that a CEO and top management would instill a culture of corruption in a company like VW.

As an ex CEO of a small biz with a couple hundred employees the thought of instilling something like that into the culture of top management would have been akin to suicide IMHO.

 

[FlewbyU]

BP stock today still is a few buck higher than it was June 09 immediately after the spill. It was down to $26.
By fall 2011 it had rebounded 85%. It is currently down big in the past year because of low oil prices, just like all energy stocks.
For a while BP was a trade, not a longterm investment. Maybe VW's stock behaves similarly. I won't be taking that bet.

Difference between BP and VW is that BP was negligent and VW was intentional. Much different. BP should have replaced the wells and should have put in more safety features but decided against it and they were found negligent.

VW on the other hand intentionally violated the law in order to obtain competitive advantage in the market by selling cars that were cheaper, more fuel efficient and more powerful then competitors all while cheating.

In my legal opinion there is no comparison between BP and VW. With VW people are going to jail. If there were any comparison I would compare it to Enron, and where is Enron today? Gone and many high ups are in jail.

 

[Blankpage]

Let's check back in 5 years, (that's my time horizon), and you can tell me "I told you so."

Five years eh! I'd be betting on Under Armor. I'd be waiting on a wee pullback though

 

[aminalmutha]

I would be shocked if VW were not in business 5, 10, 20 years from now. They will get a hard and swift boot in the nuggets they will not soon forget, but I doubt they would go away. It's not in anyone's best interest for that to happen.

 

[Zerox]

Where are the VW diesel memes? The selection is sparse.

 

[Stratus650]

Call me out all you want, dude. Plenty of people here know what I did and that I'm not making it up. Tell you what, though, feel free to PM me any time you want and we'll setup and meeting to chat about it over any drink of your choice. I absolutely know what all the tier levels. I worked in the diesel exhaust retrofit industry for 10 years with two different manufacturers so yeah, you could say it was my job to know all that and more. 90+% of the time, the shops and mechanics were flat out clueless about how the exhaust treatment systems on the engines worked, how to properly maintain them and certainly how to follow instructions to prevent common failures. You speak about it like the industry was filled with a bunch of sharp people when the reality is that they are by and large knobs with basic mechanic skills at best. The sharp ones don't stay around long before moving on to bigger and better things.

Even if this has nothing to do with the great systems you delt with and they are not applicable with little trucks?

I've worked at franchised Ford dealers since, we'll probably before you were born. In management for 20 of those years. Since the abomination of the 6.0, (introduced early 2000's) Ford techs had no choice but to be certified heavily on it and every Diesel engine since. Tune up techs took a backseat in pay and hourly rate for the first time in forever, in my experience. As irrelevant as this may seem, to you, we are talking up to $12 an hour more. For the last 12 or so years. Unless all Ford diesel techs are certified, (more class time work then any dealership techs) they can't touch warranty work. But that also applies for all Ford techs. They also need helpers to efficiently lighten their load. Each helper works their way up and spends generally 3 and up years at the same dealership as the diesel techs. (From my last 2 dealerships, 16 years combined.) I've seen helpers from lube, brake and front end and even heavy line techs, (gas engines) jump at the chance to to be selected over time to become a helper. And helpers have the fasted turnover rate. Seen plenty of techs come on as helpers, and 2-3 weeks later, they are either packing their bags or pleading their case to go back to their trained department. Many times already filled. Finding a good diesel tech is the hardest of any other tech in the business since the 6.0 came out. Beyond crap. But a hell of a money maker for dealership personnel.

Oh, the sharp ones don't stay around? Current 3 techs have stayed around, 27,14 and 9 years. last dealership I worked, somewhere around 12 and 8.

So for you to say they don't have a clue? Maybe with the systems you deal with. They have far more knowledge then both you or I. I'm sure you're rebuttal will be grand! Such as, you only work on big stuff, weren't talking about factory dealership personnel. You know, garbage, argue, and being the foremost expert in all that's clean air.

I'm sure this tl;dr. Has zero to do with the rants that will soon follow. You know, (non applicable) such as factory techs using some miracle system you worked with. But I'm sure the great systems you developed also have zero to do with itty bitty trucks.......... Just don't recall the thousands of words excluding them.

Oh, if you want a rebuttal from I, or ignore, could care less. Won't happen. Maybe I'm all wrong. But as long as you are right it's all good!

Peace.

 

[Sharky]

Difference between BP and VW is that BP was negligent and VW was intentional. Much different. BP should have replaced the wells and should have put in more safety features but decided against it and they were found negligent.

VW on the other hand intentionally violated the law in order to obtain competitive advantage in the market by selling cars that were cheaper, more fuel efficient and more powerful then competitors all while cheating.

In my legal opinion there is no comparison between BP and VW. With VW people are going to jail. If there were any comparison I would compare it to Enron, and where is Enron today? Gone and many high ups are in jail.

VW will take a hit, but will survive. I doubt anyone goes to jail.

 

[flying_hun]

I think everyone is going to forget about it inside of a year.

Really? Intentional fraud? It's one thing to cut corners, it's another to set out - with some effort - to defraud local, national, and transnational regulatory agencies. That's some nasty shit.

Difference between BP and VW is that BP was negligent and VW was intentional. Much different. BP should have replaced the wells and should have put in more safety features but decided against it and they were found negligent.

VW on the other hand intentionally violated the law in order to obtain competitive advantage in the market by selling cars that were cheaper, more fuel efficient and more powerful then competitors all while cheating.

In my legal opinion there is no comparison between BP and VW. With VW people are going to jail. If there were any comparison I would compare it to Enron, and where is Enron today? Gone and many high ups are in jail.

This makes sense to me.

 

[OaklandF4i]

Difference between BP and VW is that BP was negligent and VW was intentional. Much different. BP should have replaced the wells and should have put in more safety features but decided against it and they were found negligent.

VW on the other hand intentionally violated the law in order to obtain competitive advantage in the market by selling cars that were cheaper, more fuel efficient and more powerful then competitors all while cheating.

In my legal opinion there is no comparison between BP and VW. With VW people are going to jail. If there were any comparison I would compare it to Enron, and where is Enron today? Gone and many high ups are in jail.

agree. Germans are already opening criminal investigations.

British blogger believes its more than just VW skirting standards. Believes its been a Euro corporate culture to do so (not just VW). Implications may be far reaching. All we really know is VW has admitted to it thus far. 11 million cars world wide with the defeat device. Figures from the independent test in US wont pass the Euro standards either I think. Euros will obviously follow up and EPA is expanding their investigation beyond VW.

I remember some years ago a thread over on Thumpertalk about a guy with connections with a large japanese motorcycle brand that had purchased a KTM street legal EXC for emission testing. After the test they concluded they couldnt do it with their own motorcycles. The gist being their lawyers or decision makers didnt believe they could legally do it and implying KTM may be meeting the standards during the test somehow but not the spirit of the law. These are all just anonymous voices behind the curtain on the internet... but it does make me wonder how the euros can do it and the Japanese cant.

 

[Kornholio]

Even if this has nothing to do with the great systems you delt with and they are not applicable with little trucks?

I've worked at franchised Ford dealers since, we'll probably before you were born. In management for 20 of those years. Since the abomination of the 6.0, (introduced early 2000's) Ford techs had no choice but to be certified heavily on it and every Diesel engine since. Tune up techs took a backseat in pay and hourly rate for the first time in forever, in my experience. As irrelevant as this may seem, to you, we are talking up to $12 an hour more. For the last 12 or so years. Unless all Ford diesel techs are certified, (more class time work then any dealership techs) they can't touch warranty work. But that also applies for all Ford techs. They also need helpers to efficiently lighten their load. Each helper works their way up and spends generally 3 and up years at the same dealership as the diesel techs. (From my last 2 dealerships, 16 years combined.) I've seen helpers from lube, brake and front end and even heavy line techs, (gas engines) jump at the chance to to be selected over time to become a helper. And helpers have the fasted turnover rate. Seen plenty of techs come on as helpers, and 2-3 weeks later, they are either packing their bags or pleading their case to go back to their trained department. Many times already filled. Finding a good diesel tech is the hardest of any other tech in the business since the 6.0 came out. Beyond crap. But a hell of a money maker for dealership personnel.

Oh, the sharp ones don't stay around? Current 3 techs have stayed around, 27,14 and 9 years. last dealership I worked, somewhere around 12 and 8.

So for you to say they don't have a clue? Maybe with the systems you deal with. They have far more knowledge then both you or I. I'm sure you're rebuttal will be grand! Such as, you only work on big stuff, weren't talking about factory dealership personnel. You know, garbage, argue, and being the foremost expert in all that's clean air.

I'm sure this tl;dr. Has zero to do with the rants that will soon follow. You know, (non applicable) such as factory techs using some miracle system you worked with. But I'm sure the great systems you developed also have zero to do with itty bitty trucks.......... Just don't recall the thousands of words excluding them.

Oh, if you want a rebuttal from I, or ignore, could care less. Won't happen. Maybe I'm all wrong. But as long as you are right it's all good!

Peace.

My troll is back!

Sorry, I didn't work in light and medium duty trucks. You got me there. I haven't the slightest idea how those shops worked but if it's anything like the big boys, there's generally one guy in the shop that knows his ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to DPFs and DOCs and their related components to include those directly mounted to or part of the engine itself. The rest just don't want to deal with it or end up breaking shit in the process.

 

[tzrider]

Really? Intentional fraud? It's one thing to cut corners, it's another to set out - with some effort - to defraud local, national, and transnational regulatory agencies. That's some nasty shit.

I get all that, but the public doesn't have a terribly long memory. Winterkorn just stepped down, they'll "take corrective action" and make sure "procedures are in place" to make sure it doesn't happen again and then turn up the branding exercise they should have been doing all along. If they can keep it out of the news, nobody is going to be thinking about it this time next year.

 

[Killroy1999]

Where are the VW diesel memes? The selection is sparse.

,

I was going to post one about use of the VW ashtray, but even though I'm a Jew, I would say that was taking it a little far.

 

[Mabrouk]

[YouTube]dKef1JFpiCA[/YouTube]

 

[Cycle61]

 

[Killroy1999]

Me too.

Take a look at Toyota's stock during their trials.

Came right back after a few years.

Not like I'm gonna mortgage the house or anything.

Yeah, VW did this on propose.

Where Toyota's problems were mostly driver error or “Pedal misapplication”. Few cases were a accident by poorly fitting floor mats, which is common with aftermarket floor mats.

 

[KWeezyXB12]

so if their re flash or whatever it is they're gonna do makes my mileage and performance drop can I take the car back? I wouldn't have purchased the car if it's only gonna get 30-35 mpg