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Elon Musk: cars you can drive will eventually be outlawed

auntiebling said:
Also, it'll happen. The insurance companies will mandate it eventually once corporations get elected to congress. It won't happen in my lifetime though
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Long term, it could be bad news for the insurance companies. Once self-driving cars are perfected and the human factor is eliminated, accidents should also be eliminated. You might still need insurance against theft, but that's pretty much it.
 
I think Google's got the right idea so far. The initial push is going to be the Uber/Lyft short term taxi market. Musk has it right in relation to elevators - we don't have the Star Wars / Star Trek versions of turbolifts that go sideways and up and down and forward and back, but we do have up and down. Similarly I don't think we're going to need self driving cars that take you from San Jose to LA on a regular basis (though I'm sure we'll get that eventually) but we WILL have more of a market for cars that'll get you all over the city and peninsula easily.

Self driving semi trucks, on the other hand...shit, every nation in the world depends on trucks.
 
elbacalao said:
Not only will it be mandatory, it will be the preferred method. It will probably only take 20 years beyond when the first production cars roll out that new drivers, ie teens, will have no desire to want to drive, as the entertainment capabilities in autopilot vehicles will destroy the desire to drive them. Not to mention that human nature always resets to what is easier. It will be easier to not learn to drive, while still maintaining all of the freedom that mobility provides.
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Yup, the path of least resistance ALWAYS prevails. Humans are nothing if not lazy.
 
Has anyone asked Carries an axe if he'd like a self driving car yet?
 
NorCalAthlete said:
I don't think we're going to need self driving cars that take you from San Jose to LA on a regular basis
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Actually, that'd be super cool. Set your destination, push the seat back, read, sleep, get work done, talk on the phone, etc.
 
NorCalAthlete said:
Self driving semi trucks, on the other hand...shit, every nation in the world depends on trucks.
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My personal theory is that self-driving technology is going to revolutionize the trucking industry significantly before it gains wide adoption in consumer automobiles. Trucking companies are going to look at it from a dollars and cents perspective, and in the era of stiff DOT compliance, a rig that can stay on the road nearly 24 hours a day is a financial wet dream for them. Can't do that anymore with an O/O team at the wheel.
 
cycle61 said:
My personal theory is that self-driving technology is going to revolutionize the trucking industry significantly before it gains wide adoption in consumer automobiles. Trucking companies are going to look at it from a dollars and cents perspective, and in the era of stiff DOT compliance, a rig that can stay on the road nearly 24 hours a day is a financial wet dream for them. Can't do that anymore with an O/O team at the wheel.
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Bye-bye hundreds and hundreds of long-haul driving jobs. :(
 
cycle61 said:
My personal theory is that self-driving technology is going to revolutionize the trucking industry significantly before it gains wide adoption in consumer automobiles. Trucking companies are going to look at it from a dollars and cents perspective, and in the era of stiff DOT compliance, a rig that can stay on the road nearly 24 hours a day is a financial wet dream for them. Can't do that anymore with an O/O team at the wheel.
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Agreed. And the way I see things going. Eventually, aircraft as well.

Marcoose said:
Bye-bye hundreds and hundreds of long-haul driving jobs. :(
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Also agreed. But inevitable. I'm sure there will be plenty of drivers still, but larger companies will be the quickest to adapt and convert - think WalMart, UPS, FedEx, etc.

Marcoose said:
Actually, that'd be super cool. Set your destination, push the seat back, read, sleep, get work done, talk on the phone, etc.
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Cool, yes. Large market, not so much.


maxandgrinch said:
Has anyone asked Carries an axe if he'd like a self driving car yet?
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Yes.
 
When the majority of automobile trips are done in autonomous cars, how will the police get around? And how many strong-arm robberies will there by by those in a self-driven vehicle perpetrated against individuals in autonomous vehicles that can't evade the crime?
 
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Naw yer all wrong. I just saw an accurate futuristic movie and they were still driving. (Idiocracy, my new favorite movie to watch).
 
NorCalAthlete said:
Agreed. And the way I see things going. Eventually, aircraft as well.

Very few commercial airliners today are human piloted. Take off and landing are a "sequence" and skills are diminishing. Lack of actual pilot skill was cited in the Asiana crash at SFO.

Flew LB to SFO 10 years ago on Jet Blue and the pilot announced afterward that the whole trip, from taxi to landing, was automated.:(

AI as I understand it is limited more by power supply than computing power. That's a big hurdle to overcome. Sensors are already there though. These BARF-stimates seem right. My BIL in Brooklyn (Google guy) and all his 30-something friends disdain cars thoroughly. People will certainly adopt and adapt.
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nakedape said:
NorCalAthlete said:
Agreed. And the way I see things going. Eventually, aircraft as well.

Very few commercial airliners today are human piloted. Take off and landing are a "sequence" and skills are diminishing. Lack of actual pilot skill was cited in the Asiana crash at SFO.

Flew LB to SFO 10 years ago on Jet Blue and the pilot announced afterward that the whole trip, from taxi to landing, was automated.:(

AI as I understand it is limited more by power supply than computing power. That's a big hurdle to overcome. Sensors are already there though. These BARF-stimates seem right. My BIL in Brooklyn (Google guy) and all his 30-something friends disdain cars thoroughly. People will certainly adopt and adapt.
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It is certainly a strong Googlism. One of my best friends has a decent rank over at the Googlarchy and he only takes Google Busses from Oakland because he can work from his laptop on the Googmobile. He finds the ineffecient time allowance of driving to be horrifying.
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I find my 15 minute freeway blast is plenty of time to wake up and steel myself for the battle with the young-uns. If I had to drone for much longer I would need a book on tape or road head or both.

In the olden days people read or opened their briefcases on the train and street cars. It's really a reversion to public transportation as we once knew it, but keeping automakers and private industry at the helm instead of munis.
 
guys,

this is just like the PGE smart meter

it just will not fly, because us the consumer has every right to say i want to use xyz product when how and regardless of why.

another reason why auto pilot cars wont be a solution......

wtf you think is going to happen to 1 of our backbones...... the insurance industry....

you really think auto insurance is going to side with "smart cars that drove into each other" who the hell is going to be held responsible

we all know US loves to sue one another, so how is a smart car going to sue the other smart car?????????????

it just wont happen,

or in other words, planes fly 98% by themselves only(really they do), and can probably fly 100% by themselves so why havent we got automated computer pilots??????????
 
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I don't know FXC, - I'd bet the reason airlines won't is nobody wants to be the guys that lose a plane because the autopilot goes all HAL 9000. ( "I'm sorry Dave, it's mountain-face time" )

As for the groundlings, I see it as inevitable with the rich aging populace - if it'll keep someone independent that can afford it, it'll come - you'll see.

Frankly, in high-density traffic situations it could be a real improvement - and automated, networked protocol could ease traffic nicely - but you'll still have some yahoos like me screwing up the 'flow'...
 
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Don't look for this any time soon.

In the city's maybe 40 -60 yrs, in a rural area 80 plus, that is if we don't fuck up.
 
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