Retail giants are blaming their lower profits on theft...

[byke]

Let's not forget, the largest crime spike in modern American history was right as the boomers hit prime crime committing age. So lets not allow nostagia to convince us that the past was some golden era of high standards and raising children well.

Crime rates are still way below what they were in the 70-80s.

The formula is more complex than just crime data. Societal awareness plays a huge role. We like to express how awesome we were back in the day and how kids are soft today, but our awesomeness was fueled by naivety. The cautiousness we see today may actually be the correct response to the information we have and it may have been us that were incorrect based on ignorance.

 

[bpw]

The formula is more complex than just crime data. Societal awareness plays a huge role. We like to express how awesome we were back in the day and how kids are soft today, but our awesomeness was fueled by naivety. The cautiousness we see today may actually be the correct response to the information we have and it may have been us that were incorrect based on ignorance.

Yep, its not simple, but it's very important to look at actual problems and not get trapped in the easy but incorrect thinking of nostalgia.

I'm not sure I buy the whole "kids are soft these days" thing either. Just look at the massive increase in participation in "extreme" sports over the last few decades. 70 years ago kids played baseball, and a only a few nutters where out climbing mountains etc. I suspect its more a factor of kids doing different things, so the old guy hobbies are dying and it feels like they aren't doing anything. Everyone thinks their cohort was special, but people tend to be people...

 

[afm199]

Yep, its not simple, but it's very important to look at actual problems and not get trapped in the easy but incorrect thinking of nostalgia.

I'm not sure I buy the whole "kids are soft these days" thing either. Just look at the massive increase in participation in "extreme" sports over the last few decades. 70 years ago kids played baseball, and a only a few nutters where out climbing mountains etc. I suspect its more a factor of kids doing different things, so the old guy hobbies are dying and it feels like they aren't doing anything. Everyone thinks their cohort was special, but people tend to be people...

I have no nostalgia for the old days. I lived them.

However, in the old days, we didn't have the city crime that we do today. Period.

Old guy hobbies are dying? I raced motos until I was 73.

There aren't any special generations, they are all just people doing their best, from "the greatest generation" forward and back.

When senior citizens can't walk the streets because of the danger of getting mugged, there are problems that are real and evident.

 

[Eldritch]

Please go back a re-read my original post.

I was asking a question, not stating it as a fact.

Right, that is why I said that you implied it. Feels like we have all moved on from the idea.

When people lose hope in the country providing a fair and level playing field, they switch over to a mode of 'getting theirs' because that's what they see all of the people at the top doing. How can you fault them when they're expected to keep getting fucked over to a greater and greater degree while watching people who have everything getting even more?

Yeah, the problem has a very definite socio economics roots, the people at the bottom are increasingly deciding to not just grin and bear it.

Yeah, the growing problem of class stagnation has been ongoing since we got off the Gold Standard in the 1971. It isn't a huge surprise, it is a naturally occurring effect of fiat currency.

Traditional Economists have literally known this for hundreds of years since the early days of that field of study. It is just the Neocon (trickle down economics) Economist model that started around the same time and exploded in the 1980's that drives the value of fiat currency still.

Long term effect is always stabilized wealth gains at the top with increasingly smaller gains on lower economic tiers.

It is a formula for social disruption and now that we are entering our 3rd Generation growing up in such a system, it kind of makes sense that things would be getting more unstable. We are reaching an age where the ease of class mobility from the 1960's and earlier is fading from living memory.

 

[bpw]

However, in the old days, we didn't have the city crime that we do today. Period.

And this is why we shouldn't use anecdote to inform public policy. Property crime was double what it is now in CA in 1980, and violent crime was about double now in the early 90s.

You may not have noticed, or not been in the specific areas, but it was happening. You can't fix a problem if you can't define what it actually is.

 

[afm199]

Agree with Eldritch.

 

[HappyHighwayman]

Gotta look at the big picture, US prisoners are cut from an entirely different cloth than those in Scandinavian countries.

Which part of the US system is effective at rehabilitating our unique special US prisoners?

 

[budman]

Political discussion is political

It may be a bit so and so far folks have been pretty good about not making it to much so. The topic is good and the discussion good.

I am leaning more to closing if it steps too far over the line than a PolSink dump.

 

[Climber]

Yeah, the growing problem of class stagnation has been ongoing since we got off the Gold Standard in the 1971. It isn't a huge surprise, it is a naturally occurring effect of fiat currency.

Traditional Economists have literally known this for hundreds of years since the early days of that field of study. It is just the Neocon (trickle down economics) Economist model that started around the same time and exploded in the 1980's that drives the value of fiat currency still.

Long term effect is always stabilized wealth gains at the top with increasingly smaller gains on lower economic tiers.

It is a formula for social disruption and now that we are entering our 3rd Generation growing up in such a system, it kind of makes sense that things would be getting more unstable. We are reaching an age where the ease of class mobility from the 1960's and earlier is fading from living memory.

Every civilization fails, and often for the same reason..accelerating disparity in wealth with there being a clear and inescapable trend towards things going beyond any chance of getting out of it for the increasingly growing poor. Then revolution happens, this fact always gets overlooked by the extremely wealthy, they just think things are just going to keep getting better and better for themselves and the peons are just going to keep taking it.

I'll bet that there were a bunch of people heading for the guillotine thinking that it was so unfair.

 

[afm199]

And this is why we shouldn't use anecdote to inform public policy. Property crime was double what it is now in CA in 1980, and violent crime was about double now in the early 90s.

You may not have noticed, or not been in the specific areas, but it was happening. You can't fix a problem if you can't define what it actually is.

The stats conveniently leave out the fact that people seldom report crime today for the simple reason that nothing happens.

And no, we didn't have huge mobs of homeless people on the streets stealing in the 1980's.

 

[Eldritch]

Every civilization fails, and often for the same reason..accelerating disparity in wealth with there being a clear and inescapable trend towards things going beyond any chance of getting out of it for the increasingly growing poor. Then revolution happens, this fact always gets overlooked by the extremely wealthy, they just think things are just going to keep getting better and better for themselves and the peons are just going to keep taking it.

I'll bet that there were a bunch of people heading for the guillotine thinking that it was so unfair.

Oh sure, it even follows a predictable cycle of behavior that has been observed and documented through the course of many Empire life cycles, but every time I bring up the cycle and where this country probably is in it, people get all outraged and shit and don't want to review any of the educational stuff I post to support it.

 

[Eldritch]

The stats conveniently leave out the fact that people seldom report crime today for the simple reason that nothing happens.

And no, we didn't have huge mobs of homeless people on the streets stealing in the 1980's.

1992 was actually far and away the most violent period in Oakland's history from a straight up murder perspective.

2006 and 2012 were also pretty bad. 2021 was worse than 2022.

The trend seems to be a spike in Murders during the Race Riot Periods after COVID shut downs in 2020 accumulating momentum to a significant spike in 2021, then a slow winding down in 2022 and now further slowing into 2023. If current trends hold, violence should return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025.

Property crime may be a larger ongoing problem.

 

[bpw]

The stats conveniently leave out the fact that people seldom report crime today for the simple reason that nothing happens.

And no, we didn't have huge mobs of homeless people on the streets stealing in the 1980's.

I live in Richmond and things around my house have gotten way better in the last couple years, So I guess crime isn't actually up recently. I don't see any mobs of homeless people, stealing or not so they must not exist.

Seriously though, one persons observations are basically worthless for informing public policy. There isn't any reason to think people where any better at reporting crime during the peaks, and violent crime in particular has pretty good (or at least consistent) reporting rates.

This is one of the biggest issues with trying to solve crime problems, people respond emotionally and try to solve problems based on the feels instead of doing the work to actually figure out what is happening and what correlates with better outcomes.

 

[Eldritch]

This is one of the biggest issues with trying to solve crime problems, people respond emotionally and try to solve problems based on the feels instead of doing the work to actually figure out what is happening and what correlates with better outcomes.

 

[TWF]

I find it interesting that state with supposedly best solutions is most obvious and most dangerous in country.

 

[bpw]

I find it interesting that state with supposedly best solutions is most obvious and most dangerous in country.

They aren’t correcting for population. So that is both extremely misleading and a really, really dumb way to judge crime rates. California is right around the middle for homicide and violent crime.

“Lies, damn lies, and statistics”

 

[TWF]

They do but they not breaking it down to single crime. Some states have higher murder rate or whatever crime you want to pick but overall you guys are leaders.

 

[bpw]

They do but they not breaking it down to single crime. Some states have higher murder rate or whatever crime you want to pick but overall you guys are leaders.

That entire snippet is literally made up, they even added about 1000 murders to the actual count.

 

[Holeshot]

Coalition for a Better Oakland
Jack Saunders · 11h ·
OAKLAND ESTUARY PROWLED BY PIRATES

But do the pirates have boating licenses? Is the CA boating law WORKNG?
Lamest shit ever..boating licenses.

Great article Ernie, thanks for dropping that. I had no idea. I suppose if piracy on the bay gets large enough, us Jetskiers will be the moto gangs of the seas. The sit-down PWC's will the "trikes" of the sea...

Waterworld is just around the corner. SMOKERS!!!!

It is a formula for social disruption and now that we are entering our 3rd Generation growing up in such a system, it kind of makes sense that things would be getting more unstable. We are reaching an age where the ease of class mobility from the 1960's and earlier is fading from living memory.

The more currency we create (QE) the more earth inequality we create. Multi-nationals have created a system where agencies and policies favor working with them. Mass favors the entities with large footprints, IME.

 

[Bowling4Bikes]

The more currency we create (QE) the more earth inequality we create. Multi-nationals have created a system where agencies and policies favor working with them. Mass favors the entities with large footprints, IME.

+1 good point. the more currency created and then directed to those with the most already, exacerbates inequality. QE could be directed to the most needy, and when any tiny part of the overall creation of money does ever get to them we hear the corporate whinging loud and clear. In the form of 'lazy people', 'on the dole', 'getting rich off of welfare', 'getting paid more on unemployment than working', etc.