I used the EPA estimate for the volt, $1000/yr fuel consumption.
For the regular car (15K miles / 30MPG) * $4/gal = $2000
After 15 years / 225K miles:
the Volt cost you $30K to purchase plus $15K in fuel
The combustion car cost you $15K to purchase + $30K in fuel.
If the cost of fuel doubles, then it may be more worth it but will still take 7.5 years to break even. Of course I have never seen any battery in existence that lasts more than 7-10 years, so it may take longer still to break even if they cost about $3-4K to replace like the Prius.
Ok, we need to set a standard on mileage. If it's the Volt's $1K a year, that's based on 12K miles. My mileage is around 20K a year, so that was how I did my calculation. Also, I don't keep cars 15 years or to even 100K miles. Nowhere near that...but let's go to that anyway. One other problem with yours and others comparisons is you're comparing a mid level luxury car (ES300/ IS250/ 328i/ C250/ G25 class/ Accord/ Maxima) with what? A Honda fit for $15K? I don't think you can get new Honda Fit for that price so it's a pretty poor comparison. To be honest, if someone wanted just pure economy, they can get a Geo Metro for about $2500 (for a decent one). I'm not into that game cause it goes on ad infintum...so I compare it to other alternatives I'd spend near $30K on. There's no much you can buy brand new that has as much equipment as the Volt for $30K, period. Also, my situation is unique: I can purchase whatever used vehicle I want with no tax/title consequences and sell whenever I wish. Yet, I still chose the new route for a number of financial only reasons. I don't WANT to buy new...I abhor it, in fact.
Ok, on to the math:
Price of new Volt: $30K
Monthly payment: $499 (0% financing)
Miles per anum: 15,000
MPG Average: 56
annual fuel cost: $1071 (gas + electric)
Price of new Honda Accord (note, not the same class): $29K
Monthly payment:$508
Miles per anum: 15,000
MPG (average): 29 MPG (4 cyl, CV)
Annual fuel cost: $2068
Note: I used average MPG from fueleconomy.gov's user reports for both cars. I'm doing just less than double their rate on my Volt, thus far.
Given an equal comparison, the difference in new/ new is $997/ year. That's a 50% savings, all things being equal. Now, more things to consider: the Volt's gas engine only operates when it needs to and thus, the mileage/ use on that engine is limited to how often it operates. A traditional gas engine has mileage/ maintenance requirements. The Volt's is "time of use", meaning the car may have 200K miles on it, but gas engine only has 10K miles of actual use. More benefits: the services needed on a regular ICE auto may not be needed on a PEV (Plug in vehicle) and this, spark plugs, oil changes, timing belts/ chains, air filters, fuel treatments, plug wires, etc, all may not be needed as frequently. They're not cheap. We just got one of 2007 Silverado's with 100K serviced...it was about $1K for the engine tuneup alone.
Cash flow respective, the Volt beats the Accord as well with $91/ month better flow, but also, better value retention than the Accord, by a decent amount (37% for the 2011 Accord, 48% for the Volt). But don't stop there! The Volt actually has much BETTER value retention when you factor in the incentives. When I did my investigation into if to buy used/ new and if to buy a Volt even, I used manheim.com's data from used sales (my dealer wholesale auction site with 10's of millions of actual vehicle sales) to determine value of a 2 year old Volt. the answer was pretty easy: a 2 year old, 25K Volt sells for $24-25K. That car new, I bought for $30K (well $29K when you factor other incentives I can get). In 2 years, I can anticipate a loss of $6-7K, a bit over the $5K shown. If the Volt is worth $23K in two years, that's 77% value retention in 2 years. Conversely, via Manheim's numbers on the 2011 Accord 4 door, EX-L with 25K miles is about $18K average, for a 63% value rentention (or 37% loss), or an $11K loss. When I factor those numbers in, things look even better for the Volt (and any PEV/ hybrid actually...) on an annual basis.
Let's work through 5 years of ownership, to the end of the loan period. Each car will have 75K miles and the following expenses will have mounted:\
Volt
Fuel: $5355 (gas + electric)
Oil service:$120 (based on 21K miles of ICE use)
engine service: $0
Value loss: $13K (based on KBB projections)
Total Cost: $18,475
Cost per mile: $.25
Accord:
Fuel: $10,340
Oil service: $450
Engine service (plugs, tune, etc): $0 (change plugs at 90K, etc)
electricity: $0
Value Loss: $19K (based on 2008 price of $10K wholesale)
Total cost: $29,790
cost per mile: $.40
Advantage: Volt, $11,315
At ANY point, in the Volt (and any ICE PEV/ Hybrid) you're ahead of the regular gas ICE vehicle in value. It PAINS me to say that...it really does. I'm a big HP guy. Shit, I sold my 560 hp CTS-V and was looking at a CLK63 black series to replace it and end up in a friggin Volt...how did that happen? Cause
I'm cheap and realize that mission I'm doing with the car (or THAT car) is wrong...if I want a track car, like Everrett said, buy an everyday car that's efficient and comfy that I can do business in and if I want, I can still trade in HP stuff, which I've always done with my license. That won't change, but my attitude for what I drive personally has. We're talking a $2263 difference per year between the Accord (the class leader, really) and the volt...or better said, about $188/ month. That's a damn bike payment! That's not a small amount IMO and to waste that money simply because one wants the Accord more seems and *thinks* it will be better, seems a bit wasteful to me, in terms of the ROI on that $188/ month. An extended Volt warranty to 100K and 72 months is about $1800...which makes it every bit as reliable as the Accord through the 5 year period.
I'll take the Volt. And then I'll maybe not sell the 700hp 69' charger in inventory or one of the other rides. However, for a daily driver, what makes the most sense? Not using gas...that's what.
